2023 First Round Mock 2.0

[kccrow]

First off, let's talk about Jalen Carter because I don't want to explain myself later. I can't help but think back to the La'el Collins situation. Someone died and he may have been a contributing factor. That makes for an uneasy feeling with NFL teams. Obviously, Collins said he'd sit out if a team drafted him after the 3rd round. No team drafted him in those first three rounds. He ended up a UDFA and was eventually exonerated and signed a deal with Dallas. Carter, while he only faces misdemeanor charges at this point, still faces potential jail time on those and, if convicted, does open himself to further prosecution for manslaughter due to the contributory nature of racing to the death of another. His next hearing is only one week before the draft, so it's difficult to imagine this situation clearing up beforehand. So with that said, I'm taking him off the board, at least in the first, and likely won't have him back on it unless there is some break in the case between now and then.

Let's have some fun...

1. Chicago Bears - ER Will Anderson, Alabama
Predicted Offseason Splash: LT Orlando Brown Jr.
If the Bears can sign Brown to fill their void at LT, they have little incentive to move off the draft's top spot outside of just gaining ammunition. I think they land Brown with a market-setting contract and then take the draft's top pass rusher in Anderson in order to fix a defense that finished last in the league in sacks with only 20.

2. Houston Texans - QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Predicted Offseason Splash: ER Yannick Ngakoue
The Texans will have a difficult decision to make at QB if a team doesn't trade in front of them for the 1st pick. Young is a good QB but his size is worrisome. Stroud has all the tools but might be a bit further behind in processing what's in front of him. I think the Texans go with Stroud though.

3. Las Vegas Raiders (t/ARI) - QB Bryce Young, Alabama
Predicted Offseason Splash: FS Jessie Bates III
The Raiders are desperate for a QB and could make a play for the #1 pick but I have them going to #3 here with the Cardinals. The Patriot Way connection between a Belichick disciple and a Saban player? Too good to pass up. Arizona needs more draft ammo to fill a decimated roster.

4. Indianapolis Colts - QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
Predicted Offseason Splash: TE Mike Gesicki
The Colts end up standing pat at #4 but Shane Steichen has proven to be a QB wizard. Richardson can be his version of Jalen Hurts in Indy where he can resurrect their offense based on a powerful rushing attack that already includes Jonathan Taylor.

5. Seattle Seahawks (f/DEN) - ER Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Predicted Offseason Splash: Trade for DT DaRon Payne
The Seahawks need to redefine their defensive front and get some impact players. Wilson is regarded as the 1b pass rusher in this draft with Will Anderson and they are in a perfect slot to potentially land him. They can move pick #20 for Payne or possibly even the Chiefs' Chris Jones and completely remake their line quickly.

6. Detroit Lions - WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
Predicted Offseason Splash: CB Jamel Dean
It's not a secret Detroit needs a CB, which is why they've been widely mocked to take one at #6. That said, they have the space to make a splash on Dean which opens up their board on draft day to turbo-charge their WR corps by adding Johnston to Z Jameson Williams and Slot Amon-Ra St. Brown, putting insane weaponry around Goff for one more push and for whomever their future QB may end up being.

7. Arizona Cardinals (t/LV) - OT Paris Johnson, Ohio State
Predicted Offseason Splash: OC Garrett Bradbury
The Cardinals need help all over the roster but LT DJ Humphries suffered a season-ending back injury at age 29 and they don't have anyone with a pulse under contract across the rest of the O-line. They have to get better here and quickly. Johnson can plug in anywhere they need him to with experience at guard and tackle. He could start at RT this year and then the Cards can get out of Humphries' contract next year and move him to LT while penciling in Josh Jones at LG.

8. Atlanta Falcons - ER Myles Murphy, Clemson
Predicted Offseason Splash: DT Javon Hargrave
The Falcons have 39 sacks... over the past two seasons combined. That's a horrendous amount and a big reason they brought in DL coach Ryan Nielson from the Saints as DC to fix their defense. The Falcons need to prioritize getting to the QB, which is why I see them targeting Hargrave in FA and going for GA native Myles Muprhy in the draft (his parents have been season ticket holders). That should bring a lot more juice upfront to ignite that stagnant pass rush.

9. Carolina Panthers - QB Will Levis, Kentucky
Predicted Offseason Splash: FS Juan Thornhill
It's hard to see the Panthers rolling into 2023 with Matt Corral as the starter. With a limited cap, they can't really afford to throw everything and the kitchen sink at moving up either and filling in their roster. I could see them moving up to around 6 in case Atlanta bluffs about starting Desmond Ritter, but that's about it. Anyhow, I see them landing Levis at #9 and that isn't such a bad thing. Levis has a rocket arm and might function well in an offense that looks for chunks with some play action off their strong rushing attack.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (f/NO) - CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
Predicted Offseason Splash: Re-sign S Chauncey Garnder-Johnson
The Eagles are set to lose a lot of pieces on their defense this offseason and have limited space, so keeping the secondary mostly intact while letting Williams and Davis ascend at DT is probably their best move. CGJ is a Swiss Army knife on the back end and they are well positioned at #10 to replace Bradbury at CB. I see Gonzalez as the draft's best CB with easy fluidity and speed to go with plus ball skills.

11. Tennessee Titans - OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
Predicted Offseason Splash: Re-Sign RG Nate Davis
The Titans are navigating cap issues and have a need for LT. It'll be interesting to see if they think they can move Petit-Frere over from RT or not. If not, then they have to get a guy early to fix their offensive line. Dillon Radunz's late ACL tear doesn't help matters. I think the Titans go all in and nab a great LT prospect in Jones. Any way you slice it, the situation is relatively dire regarding the Titans' offensive line.

12. Houston Texans (f/CLE) - ER Lukas VanNess, Iowa
Even if the Texans pursue an edge rusher in FA as I have outlined at #2, they need more help than that defensively as they have nobody outside of grandpa Hughes that can even remotely get after the QB. VanNess makes a ton of sense at this point as he can play standing up or put his hand in the dirt.

13. New York Jets - LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson
Predicted Offseason Splash: Trade for QB Aaron Rodgers
The Jets probably make a move for Rodgers but, like the Favre trade, I think it lacks a 1st round pick in the current year. I'm guessing a 2nd and conditional 2024 pick. As for the Jets' other needs, S and LB certainly stand out as enormous issue areas. I have Saleh getting his Fred Warner-type with the ultra-athletic Simpson here. Guys that run 4.43 at the position aren't overly common. If you can coach this kid up to identify sooner, look out.

14. New England Patriots - OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma
Predicted Offseason Splash: FS Julian Love
The Patriots would probably like to move Trent Brown back to RT and I find it doubtful they bring Wynn back. The most sense is to go and get a LT for the long haul at 14 and then add some weapons on day 2. Mayer will be intriguing, no doubt about it, but signs point to them hanging onto Hunter Henry. I think they look that way in round 2 or 3.

15. Green Bay Packers - TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Predicted Offseason Splash: DL Zach Allen
Other than Jordan Love, the last time Green Bay selected an offensive player in the first round was for OT Derek Sherrod in 2011. That's 11 out of 12 picks in 10 years. The Packers head into this draft with defensive needs at DE and SS but I think it's high time they use FA to address those and spend some capital offensively by going for a secure target for Jordan Love. Mayer is the most complete TE in the draft, with no questions.

16. Washington Commanders - CB Joey Porter Jr, Penn State
Predicted Offseason Splash: OT Jawaan Taylor
The Commanders definitely need help on the offensive line so I see them making a FA move there by getting Taylor at RT (they met with him at the combine in 2019) so they can move Cosmi inside to RG. In any event, the Commanders met with CBs at the combine, including Porter. I think CB needs to be a high priority in this draft and they'll probably need a couple of them.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee
Predicted Offseason Splash: DL Dre'Mont Jones
The offensive and defensive lines are clear problem areas for the Steelers heading into the offseason so they'll need to work all avenues to improve. They can clear enough space by cutting William Jackson and Mitch Trubisky to do something and I think their best bet is getting another DE in Jones, then attacking OL in the draft. Wright is a Steeler type on the offensive line and could improve either OT spot for them, although I see him as a much better RT than LT.

18. Philadelphia Eagles (t/DET) - RB Bijon Robinson, Texas
At some point, some team is going to just say screw positional value and take the super-talent that is Robinson in round 1. The only real question is where, and the real thing is that from a talent perspective, Robinson is a top-10 player. Top RBs are so difficult to peg as they could go top 5 or in the 20s. I see this as Howie Roseman's chip push to try to win it all. His total package in terms of size, speed, elusiveness, power, and receiving ability is reminiscent of Duece McAllister and Willis McGahee.

19. New York Giants (t/TB) - Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
Predicted Offseason Splash: Re-sign QB Daniel Jones
We'll have to see what NY can pull off after re-signing Jones in FA but I can't foresee any major moves. The G-Men stand to lose 4 of their WRs in FA and their top two RBs so they need to address it. The Giants aren't a great big-play offense with Jones' limitations, so they need to get a guy that can make that happen and there's no better target in this draft for it than Hyatt who I have the Giants moving up for here. Hyatt has to get better at running an NFL route tree but he's explosive.

20. Washington Commanders (f/SEA) - OL Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
I have the Commanders trading franchise DT DaRon Payne to Seattle for the 20th pick. It will be interesting to see where Skoronski ends up as an NFL fit but I'm assuming it's a move to the inside. Nonetheless, he might get his shot to be a LT. There may not be a better team to explore options than the Commanders but ultimately I see him taking over for OC Chase Roullier (his HS position). One way or another, the Washington OL is getting better with this kid.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (t/LAC) - CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
Predicted Offseason Splash: Re-sign SS Vonn Bell
The Bengals stand to lose 3 starters from their secondary this offseason so I see them spending the money to keep the cheaper of their two safeties in Bell, plus they have Dax Hill to step in for Bates. Getting a CB to replace the less-than-stellar Eli Apple should be the priority one. Witherspoon is a really good corner that might go even higher than this but it's a pretty crowded group in round 1. I see them moving up to get their man ahead of the next three teams who could all use a starter on the outside.

22. Baltimore Ravens - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
Predicted Offseason Splash: DL Dalvin Tomlinson
The Ravens are always a team that lets the draft come to them after making some middling FA signings, although I have them chasing a bit bigger fish this year in Tomlinson with Calais Campbell turning 36. When it comes down to it, the Ravens have to get better at WR where they lack any sort of real difference-maker. Of course, losing Bateman in week 6 didn't help but even he wasn't on any kind of pace to eclipse his rookie output of 46 receptions and 515 yards. Lamar Jackson, or whoever their QB ends up being, needs another receiver to rely on outside of Mark Andrews. Smith-Njigba is electric and as reliable a set of hands as there is. He can immediately step into a Slot or Z role and flourish.

23. Minnesota Vikings - DE Keion White, Georgia Tech
Predicted Offseason Splash: NB Byron Murphy
The Vikings spent 3 picks on their secondary last year, including a 1st and high 2nd, to hardly get anything from them due to injury or lack of playing time, or both. It will be interesting to see if the Vikings go back to that well again early in this draft given they also have other pressing needs. I see them adding a CB to the room in FA and potentially a day 2 player but I'm going with the less obvious need by sending White to Minnesota as a 5T DE to help shore up that DL that's set to lose Dalvin Tomlinson.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
Predicted Offseason Splash: RT Andrew Wylie
Shaq Griffen and Rayshawn Jenkins could both be cap casualties for the Jags so they may likely be looking for secondary help early on in this one. Even with those moves, the cap will be limited so I don't see much for major FA moves. In the end, the Jags could be poised to get solid value at CB as I have here with Ringo who shows striking similarities to some ex-Jags corners.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (f/NYG) - CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
Predicted Offseason Splash: CB Isaiah Oliver
Being cash-strapped and having needs everywhere isn't a good recipe to have but that's where the Bucs find themselves. No level of the defense is without need, they don't have a QB (Trask... really?), and they are losing four WRs. It's probably going to be really bad in Tampa for a few seasons. This is why I have them moving down to pick up more draft capital and they should still get a quality player. I see pass rusher and secondary as the two major areas of need for them right now. Banks is the best value on the board, so I guess you start with replacing Jamel Dean and work out the rest later.

26. Dallas Cowboys - S Brian Branch, Alabama
Predicted Offseason Splash: Re-sign RB Tony Pollard (Franchised)
The Cowboys find themselves in a pretty bad cap situation but it's workable if they are smart so I don't have them making any real splash moves outside of finally working a deal with Pollard. They'll need to work the draft hard and maybe make some June 1 signings. Their biggest holes come on defense, particularly at CB, FS, and LB. Branch is a huge value here but I'm just not sure if I see him going much higher.

27. Buffalo Bills - OG O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida
Predicted Offseason Splash: RB Saquon Barkley
The Bills will have to do some restructuring to make any kind of moves in FA so it seems unlikely they'll go overly wild but I do see them making one big splash for Barkley, which likely means Jordan Poyer and Tremaine Edwards ship out of town. The biggest hole on the team seems to be at OG, where LG Roger Saffold is a FA and they had to trade for former UDFA Ryan Bates to fill in at RG during last season. I think they give some attention here if a player like Torrence is available. They can easily move Bates to LG (he played LT in college) and plug Torrence in at RG, which at least helps their chances against the likes of Chris Jones should they meet again in the playoffs.

28. Los Angeles Chargers (t/CIN) - ER Nolan Smith, Georgia
Predicted Offseason Splash: LB Tremaine Edmonds
I don't see the Chargers being able to do too much in FA in terms of impact but LB is a place they could probably improve without breaking the bank. When it comes to the draft, they'll likely need to replace Khalil Mack with another speed rusher. Nolan Smith definitely fits the bill as a super-athletic edge bender that can do multiple things from a 3-4 alignment opposite Joey Bosa.

29. New Orleans Saints (f/SF) - WR Jordan Addison, USC
Offseason Splash: QB Derek Carr
The Saints already made their big offseason move by signing Derek Carr so there isn't much to predict there, although I feel as though they could pick up a DT like A'Shawn Robinson on the cheap coming off an injury. In the meantime, it's kind of take BPA at WR, TE, or anywhere on defense here. The Saints got a nice player in Chris Olave last year at WR but they need more firepower. Addison is an inside/outside threat they can move around to create matchups and would give Carr a Hunter Renfrow safety-valve type to rely on.

30. Detroit Lions (t/PHI) - TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
If Simpson were available at 18, I probably would have Detroit stay put but part of me also thinks they fill their void at MLB in FA. I think there's an argument they could add at CB as well, even if signing a guy like Dean does happen, due to Okudah's struggles at the position and a couple of free agents in Mike Hughes, Will Harris, and Amani Oruwariye. The Lions do have two 2nd rounders and a 3rd so I'm not too worried. In the end, if the Lions can fill the defensive holes they have in FA then they can take advantage of a draft that fits their holes offensively. Kincaid is an incredible receiving threat that will add another dimension to a strong group of weapons that I'm projecting here as XWR Quentin Johnston, ZWR Jameson Williams, SWR Amon-Ra St. Brown, TE Dalton Kincaid, RB Jamaal Williams, and 3RB D'Andre Swift.

31. Kansas City Chiefs - ER Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame
Projected Offseason Splash: Trade for OL Ezra Cleveland
It will certainly be interesting to see what the Chiefs do with their offensive tackle situation but Brett Veach isn't known to sit idly by. My guess is he at least secures someone before the draft to lock in at the position and not force his hand. An idea floating around is to send a day 2 pick to Minnesota for Ezra Cleveland who should move from LG back to his college position at LT, and I like it. Cleveland to KC for a 3rd and 6th-round pick sounds good to me. In the meantime, the Chiefs address their starting edge rusher hole vacated by the release of Frank Clark with Foskey who is a prototypical edge for Spags' system with a good release and good production in all facets.

Closing - This draft is odd in that it has a lot of talent cram-smashed together with no real clear separation of some tiers like you so often see. Outside of a handful of players, there are probably 30 other guys that are all kind of the same tier of player. Is that going to lead to almost no movement outside of teams going for QBs? Or might it create a bunch of jockeying around for better schematic fits/preferences? It should be interesting and would love to hear your thoughts on that.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by LoneWolf

Bijan Robinson doesn't make the Chiefs a better team than a good pass rusher or quality LT would. What you would get from him vs. what Pacheco is going to give you isn't that great. Pacheco is a 1,000 yard back as a 7th rd. rookie if he starts the entire year last year.

1. Can the Chiefs lose if they are crushing the run game? No.

2. Will the Chiefs crush the run game for 20 straight games if Bijan and Pacheco run the ball for us? Yes.

This pick, more than any other, gets us to 20-0, unless they somehow manufacture an elite tackle or pass rusher.

[Mecca]

It's kinda funny how many mocks have Bijan going to Buffalo.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by Mecca

It's kinda funny how many mocks have Bijan going to Buffalo.

If they spend ANOTHER early pick on a RB that would be 4 ****ing years in a row.

They have way too many needs this year to turn around and take one in the 1st now.

[Mecca]

Trenton Simpson isn't a 1st round pick either...really not sure why he's so high here.

[ntexascardfan]

Here's the only argument I'd make for Bijan. How many RBs are lining up in the slot and running a solid route, then completing this catch? He could be a reverse Deebo Samuel on this team that primarily plays at RB, but you can line him up in the slot and really cause defenses to have to think through their personnel. He's a guy who could run for 1,500 and receive for 750.

https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/34800601

[Coogs]

Refresh me on Ezra Cleveland some more Crow.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Coogs

Refresh me on Ezra Cleveland some more Crow.

It's a throw-shit-at-the-wall kind of thing but I really liked him a lot in the 2020 draft and the Vikings snagged him in the 2nd round. Some podcaster for the Vikings thinks they should trade him to us and it prompted me to go "oh yeah, not a bad ****ing idea."

Anyhow, he played LT at Boise State but Minnesota stuck him at LG where he's a bit underpowered. He's 6'6" 311, 4.93 40, 4.46 shuttle, 7.26 3-cone, 30 reps, 30" vert.

Outside of vertical, those numbers trump Freeland who everyone is ooohing over at this year's event. His closest athletic comp is Garett Bolles according to mockdraftable.

It's one of those ideas that I think it's worth looking at. He's young, 2 years left on his rookie deal. I'm not basing a complete draft prognostication on it but I think I like this more than signing Dillard or the like.

I really don't know that Veach goes balls deep for a LT trade in round 1. He's never really gone all-in on a guy yet. He's shown he'll move but it's not a thing where he's giving up a future 1's and such.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Great job with the selections -- very realistic draft.

Foskey is not a bad pick.

But.

Will McDonald is right there, and he's a gamer. Ojulari doesn't fit our defense well but we desperately need more sacks off the edge and Ojulari has the highest floor of the remaining edge rushers.

Zay Flowers is still on the board -- but assuming we bring back JuJu I probably agree we should pass.

But maybe by far the toughest player for us to pass on is Bijan Robinson. You're talking about a Top 8 talent in this draft that has fallen to pick 31.

I think you slam dunk that pick. I don't care about history. You've sewn up LT for at least a season, we're probably bringing back JuJu. They can find a RT later in the draft and roll with Niang. The Chiefs can absolutely go RB here.

The truth of the matter is: the Chiefs cannot lose if they can run the ball. Robinson ensures they can run the ball, and Pacheco is emerging as a third down back anyway.

My choice, given your hypotheticals, is probably Bijan Robinson. But I'd take McDonald and Ojulari both over Foskey.

There's literally zero situation where I'd mock any of those guys to KC.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Shoes

I think you and I are starting to see the board similarly, really good work on this mock. Most people will likely touch on Jalen Carter being omitted from the first round- I don't know if I foresee Jalen Carter going full La'el Collins. That being said we are only privy to the information reported and we don't know how serious Carter's circumstances are, that's tough to predict.

Other than that without getting too deep into it, I would be really surprised to see Detroit pick two offensive players in the first round. Top 5 offense (ppg) last year without Jameson Williams for the majority of it, bottom 5 defense as well. They need talent essentially at every level of their defense and to spend two first round picks on luxuries would be a mistake. I think Detroit's front office is sneakily getting to be one of the better in the league with how they've managed their assets lately.

The only reason I did that with Detroit is I see them going after a vet CB in free agency, especially Dean. He's picture-perfect for them. They also have two 2nd round picks to address DT and LB where there will be better values. I don't think they have to press defense in round 1 unless they don't grab a good CB in FA.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Trenton Simpson isn't a 1st round pick either...really not sure why he's so high here.

We're going to have to disagree on that.

As for your other comments, I'm going to not trust the mock draft simulators and trust more in what I know and reference people I trust that give grades and evaluations when I'm on the fence. With that, I guess we're going to see the 1st round prospects a whole lot differently and I'm cool with that.

This will most likely change some for the finale, given my projections in FA may not be on point but I'm giving my best guess based on cap space and need then filling the draft behind it.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Great job with the selections -- very realistic draft.

Foskey is not a bad pick.

But.

Will McDonald is right there, and he's a gamer. Ojulari doesn't fit our defense well but we desperately need more sacks off the edge and Ojulari has the highest floor of the remaining edge rushers.

Zay Flowers is still on the board -- but assuming we bring back JuJu I probably agree we should pass.

But maybe by far the toughest player for us to pass on is Bijan Robinson. You're talking about a Top 8 talent in this draft that has fallen to pick 31.

I think you slam dunk that pick. I don't care about history. You've sewn up LT for at least a season, we're probably bringing back JuJu. They can find a RT later in the draft and roll with Niang. The Chiefs can absolutely go RB here.

The truth of the matter is: the Chiefs cannot lose if they can run the ball. Robinson ensures they can run the ball, and Pacheco is emerging as a third down back anyway.

My choice, given your hypotheticals, is probably Bijan Robinson. But I'd take McDonald and Ojulari both over Foskey.

LOL WUT

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by kccrow

It's a throw-shit-at-the-wall kind of thing but I really liked him a lot in the 2020 draft and the Vikings snagged him in the 2nd round. Some podcaster for the Vikings thinks they should trade him to us and it prompted me to go "oh yeah, not a bad ****ing idea."

Anyhow, he played LT at Boise State but Minnesota stuck him at LG where he's a bit underpowered. He's 6'6" 311, 4.93 40, 4.46 shuttle, 7.26 3-cone, 30 reps, 30" vert.

Outside of vertical, those numbers trump Freeland who everyone is ooohing over at this year's event. His closest athletic comp is Garett Bolles according to mockdraftable.

It's one of those ideas that I think it's worth looking at. He's young, 2 years left on his rookie deal. I'm not basing a complete draft prognostication on it but I think I like this more than signing Dillard or the like.

I really don't know that Veach goes balls deep for a LT trade in round 1. He's never really gone all-in on a guy yet. He's shown he'll move but it's not a thing where he's giving up a future 1's and such.

I don't think we go all in either. Even though we have a lot of picks, we need to value or day one and day two picks. A bunch of picks late on day three don't really do much for the trade up scene.

Erza looks like an interesting option by those numbers. Arm length is only 33 3/8 though.

[Titty Meat]

I don't think Peter Skoronski falls to 20

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

I don't think Peter Skoronski falls to 20

His arm length was only 32 1/4. I could see him falling a bit.

He is probably not even on the Chiefs board because of that. Pretty sure Veach and Reid only want 34(+) for the OT position.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by kccrow

We're going to have to disagree on that.

As for your other comments, I'm going to not trust the mock draft simulators and trust more in what I know and reference people I trust that give grades and evaluations when I'm on the fence. With that, I guess we're going to see the 1st round prospects a whole lot differently and I'm cool with that.

This will most likely change some for the finale, given my projections in FA may not be on point but I'm giving my best guess based on cap space and need then filling the draft behind it.

Drew Sanders gets drafted before Trenton Simpson....