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Old 11-25-2023, 02:49 PM   #1
-King- -King- is offline
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Originally Posted by TwistedChief View Post
It’s just that so many of you adults love to talk with such confidence and conviction on low probability outcomes, yet none of you are willing to back this stuff up with anything tangible.

It’s like picking the right numbers for the lottery and being so proud of yourself despite the fact that you’re not even willing to buy a ticket.

You do you.
So in this analogy....toney playing for a team next year is like winning the lottery? And that's what I'm buying a ticket for? What makes football discussions the "lottery" to you?
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Old 11-25-2023, 02:56 PM   #2
TwistedChief TwistedChief is offline
Why so serious?
 
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Originally Posted by -King- View Post
So in this analogy....toney playing for a team next year is like winning the lottery? And that's what I'm buying a ticket for? What makes football discussions the "lottery" to you?
I’ll slow this down.

We’re talking about a low probability outcome - say, 5% - that you are putting out there as if the odds are 75%. And then when I disagree with you and imply that his health hasn’t exactly been a complete disaster this year which would be the main reason his career ends, you respond mockingly as if I’m the one who doesn’t understand how Toney might be viewed.

So, we have a real difference of opinion. You implied something was likely and I think it’s very, very unlikely, and I’m willing to give you very favorable odds commensurate with my view that you would clearly be incentivized to take if you really thought you were right.

If Toney isn’t in the league next year and we bet $1, you get $10 and only risked $1 in doing so. Seems like a good bet if you feel like your odds are right and I’m the clueless one here.
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Old 11-25-2023, 03:05 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by TwistedChief View Post
I’ll slow this down.

We’re talking about a low probability outcome - say, 5% - that you are putting out there as if the odds are 75%. And then when I disagree with you and imply that his health hasn’t exactly been a complete disaster this year which would be the main reason his career ends, you respond mockingly as if I’m the one who doesn’t understand how Toney might be viewed.

So, we have a real difference of opinion. You implied something was likely and I think it’s very, very unlikely, and I’m willing to give you very favorable odds commensurate with my view that you would clearly be incentivized to take if you really thought you were right.

If Toney isn’t in the league next year and we bet $1, you get $10 and only risked $1 in doing so. Seems like a good bet if you feel like your odds are right and I’m the clueless one here.
What a weird way to live man. If your wife says she'll likely be home in an hour, do you press her about making a bet on if she'll actually be home in an hour or not?


You're way too fixated on being right or wrong. It's just a forum man, no one cares.
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Old 11-25-2023, 04:11 PM   #4
IowaHawkeyeChief IowaHawkeyeChief is offline
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Originally Posted by -King- View Post
What a weird way to live man. If your wife says she'll likely be home in an hour, do you press her about making a bet on if she'll actually be home in an hour or not?


You're way too fixated on being right or wrong. It's just a forum man, no one cares.
No, A weird way to live is the guys on here just absolutely trashing players on their favorite team. Can you be disappointed and criticize their play?, sure... but the outright immature hate from some of you is flat out strange...
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Old 11-25-2023, 05:16 PM   #5
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No, A weird way to live is the guys on here just absolutely trashing players on their favorite team. Can you be disappointed and criticize their play?, sure... but the outright immature hate from some of you is flat out strange...
For example?
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Old 11-26-2023, 11:44 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by -King- View Post
What a weird way to live man. If your wife says she'll likely be home in an hour, do you press her about making a bet on if she'll actually be home in an hour or not?


You're way too fixated on being right or wrong. It's just a forum man, no one cares.
He cant help himself. He has issues...
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