Super Bowl 58 Mic'd Up

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by DaFace

While true, it's not as clear-cut as everyone's acting like it is. Everyone's using logic based on college rules, which works to some extent, but in the NFL's version, it becomes sudden death after both teams have touched the ball. So, for example, if the 9ers kicked a FG and they held the Chiefs to a FG, the 9ers would just need one more FG to win it.

We don't have any historical data to get a feel for the actual probabilities, but it's likely gonna be somewhere between 40-60% probabilities for either approach. I still think kicking is the way to go, but it's not the 30-70% variation people are acting like it is.

If you have 4 plays to score you are more likely to score than if you only have 3. That's just common sense. You don't need statistics to tell you that.