2024's Red zone failures

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I really don't understand why we just won't RUN THE ****ING BALL.

Especially this week, with Hunt AND Pacheco.

RUN THE ****ING BALL.

Then play-action pass some in there. Slow the pass rush down. Help your terrible offensive tackles.

RUN THE ****ING BALL.

I would agree most any week. But Friday we were running for 1.9yds/carry, so I can't blame Andy for trying to pivot.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

I would agree most any week. But Friday we were running for 1.9yds/carry, so I can't blame Andy for trying to pivot.

That’s pretty much what Andy said. But his short passing game didn’t seem to be there either.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

That’s pretty much what Andy said. But his short passing game didn’t seem to be there either.

Yeah. OTs and the IOL both were inconsistent, to say the least, which didn't help at all. JJSS seems to be invisible in the RZ, and most anywhere else for that matter. We need the OL to do better, and someone else besides Nuk has to step up a little.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

That’s pretty much what Andy said. But his short passing game didn’t seem to be there either.

No, it didn't. It's puzzling that we consistently are inconsistent in the RZ, considering that Andy is an offensive genius.

I mean, look at TB for instance. They get into the RZ at a high rate, about 4 times/gm, good enough for third-best in the league, and then they convert TDs at a 3rd or 4th-best rate as well, about 66%.

And that's even without Evans and Godwin, with a middling IOL, and a RB1 that's not very good running between the tackles. But they run the ball well in the RZ and score most of their points from within the RZ.

Tbh, I've been kind of hoping Andy's been checking them out and stealing some of their RZ plays, particularly their run plays.

[Why Not?]

I’d be good with the shovel pass to the TE taking a vacation for a few years. Seems to have been figured out.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

I’d be good with the shovel pass to the TE taking a vacation for a few years. Seems to have been figured out.

[crayzkirk]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

I’d be good with the shovel pass to the TE taking a vacation for a few years. Seems to have been figured out.

Not just a RZ issue however the WR/TE naked screen pass has been getting blown up. LV/DEN both have good lines which impacted the RZ performance however CAR blew up our line as well. I think it's a symptom of the OL more than anything else. Lately, there's been a penalty or sack that puts the team behind the 8 ball almost immediately. And Kelce isn't what he once was.

[Gary Cooper]

The easiest way to score in the red zone is to run the ball.

That said, in 2022 they were #2 in red zone efficiency. Don't know if they ran more, whether it's because the shovel pass worked better then, or if it's just Mahomes playing better.

[O.city]

Run the ball or throw it on time.

[Bearcat]

It's one of those low sample size stats that don't mean a ton... Mahomes hits a few passes and they at least go from bottom 3rd to the top half.

Nothing with that shovel pass makes sense at this point besides some big reach that they keep going to that well so other teams will prep for it, just to do some fake shovel play in the playoffs or just setup looks for later...

[NJChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

It's one of those low sample size stats that don't mean a ton... Mahomes hits a few passes and they at least go from bottom 3rd to the top half.

Nothing with that shovel pass makes sense at this point besides some big reach that they keep going to that well so other teams will prep for it, just to do some fake shovel play in the playoffs or just setup looks for later...

Could be. I have thought that maybe they keep running it just set up something different in the playoffs.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

It's one of those low sample size stats that don't mean a ton... Mahomes hits a few passes and they at least go from bottom 3rd to the top half.

Nothing with that shovel pass makes sense at this point besides some big reach that they keep going to that well so other teams will prep for it, just to do some fake shovel play in the playoffs or just setup looks for later...

The TD to Hardman to the In the Superbowl was a shovel play with an option.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

It's one of those low sample size stats that don't mean a ton... Mahomes hits a few passes and they at least go from bottom 3rd to the top half.

Nothing with that shovel pass makes sense at this point besides some big reach that they keep going to that well so other teams will prep for it, just to do some fake shovel play in the playoffs or just setup looks for later...

Yeah - I looked into this several years back when Jackson had something like 80% of his touchdown passes inside the red zone or goal to go or something like that.

And ultimately it's just not repeatable year over year. And there doesn't seem to be anything specific that is determinative. Very few teams have ever shown themselves to have a rosetta stone in the red zone.

I think it's a sample size issue. 3-4 conversions in any given year can move you halfway up the list and ultimately that could be as simple as a couple uncharacteristic drops, misses or penalties across the board. You can get 6-8 failed conversions by just having normally reliable players fail at a bad time.

With guys like Kelce and Hopkins, not to mention Mahomes, who have a history of reliability, I think you're really just looking at wonky sample sizes and the fact that some of the spam plays we have had in the past have been sniffed out.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah - I looked into this several years back when Jackson had something like 80% of his touchdown passes inside the red zone or goal to go or something like that.

And ultimately it's just not repeatable year over year. And there doesn't seem to be anything specific that is determinative. Very few teams have ever shown themselves to have a rosetta stone in the red zone.

I think it's a sample size issue. 3-4 conversions in any given year can move you halfway up the list and ultimately that could be as simple as a couple uncharacteristic drops, misses or penalties across the board. You can get 6-8 failed conversions by just having normally reliable players fail at a bad time.

With guys like Kelce and Hopkins, not to mention Mahomes, who have a history of reliability, I think you're really just looking at wonky sample sizes and the fact that some of the spam plays we have had in the past have been sniffed out.

There was a lot of talk about it amongst Bills fans in 2020/2021, which is probably the first time a I got annoyed enough to confirm my suspicion...
https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthre...e#post15500345

And the Bills would design a play for Allen to run into a brick wall up 4 touchdowns in the 4th quarter if it meant scoring in the red zone, so of course they're going to convert a few more over the course of a season while Mahomes will save it for the playoffs (usually).

Hell, in terms of that stat being wonky, the Bills and Bears are tied for the 3rd best red zone percentage right now due to how fee attempts the Bears have this season... each Bears attempt moves them 3.5% up or down a ranking where 2/3 of the league are separated by about 10%.

[DRM08]

They keep running those gimmick plays that go nowhere. Wasted snaps.