Thanks! And thoughts on the final draft grade?

[JPH83]

Just wanted to give a hat tip to a few people here for their work over the draft season.

Dante for the visits tracker and insane work on getting info on the picks up so quickly

Crow for the immense detail and knowledge provided on prospects. I always learn stuff from you each year. Much appreciated.

Staylor for the mock draft. Amazed we made it, thanks for putting in the effort to keep it on the road man

Coach for starting loads of interesting threads to ponder and general enthusiasm for all things draft. You seem like a real solid dude as well.

And then there's a load of you who know loads more than I do about scheme fits and specific skillsets etc.which includes those above, but also DJ, Duncan, Chris Meck, Run...probably loads of others.

Thanks all, I really enjoy this time of year, and I'm pretty happy with how this year's draft has gone. Reckon I'd give it an -A. What do you think?

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It's an aggregate.

Get shot in the arm -- that's probably not fatal. Get shot in both arms -- probably still okay.

But man, you take 7 'non-fatal' wounds and sooner or later you're gonna bleed out.

Nobody's saying THIS would be the tipping point. But sooner or later we WILL find out what that tipping point is if we just blasting holes in ourselves.

I agree. And man, if we weren't so damned good at finding like late round gems in the secondary specifically we'd be in real trouble.

But if Royals hits, and Williams hits and two more of the bunch, we're still in pretty good shape.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I'm glad you understood what I was trying to relay, and this point hits it on the head. The history does not support the Chiefs, Burkholder, Simmons, etc. It just simply doesn't. We have to hope he beats those odds.

The real point of it is, the Chiefs took an enormous risk regardless of who gave what opinion. That's a franchise-altering pick if it does or does not work out.



You never looked at the data. The data is up to 2 years ago, and I can tell you recency hasn't made things any better. The past 2 seasons haven't seen any further increases in the likelihood of the injury being something most players can overcome. None. I don't know what's so hard to understand there.

The 25% number came from a PubMed paper where they included guys from 25 years ago and guys that were 40 years old.

If you have another paper you want to share link it up.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It's an aggregate.

Get shot in the arm -- that's probably not fatal. Get shot in both arms -- probably still okay.

But man, you take 7 'non-fatal' wounds and sooner or later you're gonna bleed out.

Nobody's saying THIS would be the tipping point. But sooner or later we WILL find out what that tipping point is if we just blasting holes in ourselves.

That's a good way to build upon what I was saying. Two of our last five firsts are busts (well, FAU looks to be at least). If that climbs to 3/6, that's not ideal. You want a higher hit rate than 50/50 on those. We have to hope Simmons keeps us floating on the high end.

Veach tends to hit on some 5th-7th round picks, but it might come to a point where the law of averages comes into play, and then you have no offset to the misses in the meat 'n taters segment.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

The 25% number came from a PubMed paper where they included guys from 25 years ago and guys that were 40 years old.

If you have another paper you want to share link it up.

You're not this clueless are you?

That article was originally published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine.

I'll help you further:

The Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine (OJSM), developed by the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine (AOSSM), is a global, peer-reviewed, open-access journal that combines the interests of researchers and clinical practitioners across orthopaedic sports medicine, arthroscopy, and knee and shoulder arthroplasty

Like many others, that Journal is housed on "PubMed." Since you might need help with that:

PubMed Central (PMC) is a free full-text archive of biomedical and life sciences journal literature at the U.S. National Institutes of Health's National Library of Medicine (NIH/NLM)

So if you really want to bash "PubMed" as if it's some non-legitimate source of information, then you're welcome to it but it just makes you look like a ****ing moron.

And, despite your attack on the study, it's as good a compilation of data as exists on the subject.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

That's a good way to build upon what I was saying. Two of our last five firsts are busts (well, FAU looks to be at least). If that climbs to 3/6, that's not ideal. You want a higher hit rate than 50/50 on those. We have to hope Simmons keeps us floating on the high end.

Veach tends to hit on some 5th-7th round picks, but it might come to a point where the law of averages comes into play, and then you have no offset to the misses in the meat 'n taters segment.

Honestly, I think a 50/50 rate is...okay. Given where we pick. It's not ideal, but it's not bad either.

I mean the typical hit rate on 1st rounders is nearer 66% but that's inclusive of those 10-15 'blue chip' prospects every year with an 80% hit rate that drive that number.

If we're at roughly 50/50 we don't suck.

But 'don't suck' doesn't keep you on the top of the mountain for long. Dynasties don't form on 'don't suck'.

And we have some MASSIVE throughput in Kelce and soon enough Jones that are going to start aging out. When that happens, that hit rate kinda has to be better than it's been, especially if Simmons doesn't work out.

We're not AT a puke point yet. But we're getting closer. And should Simmons not work out...well at that point I think we're there. At that point we've gotta have another 2022 draft if we hope to continue running shit. We've used up some of our runway with spotty 1st round results of late and if Simmons doesn't work, that may use up the rest.

That's not to say that we'll crater -- it's to say that we'll have used our grace and we'll need to get things real right, real fast.

I don't remember where I heard it but I heard someone say "We're closer to 'ordinary' than you think..." And he didn't mean that the Chiefs were an average football team or even close to that. But that they'll be in that same pool with Baltimore and Buffalo and Philly where every single year you'll have to get a LOT of things right. And you'll have to get some breaks. And you'll need some career years. Do all that and you might win a SB.

That's not been our reality the last couple years. We haven't needed to get everything right or have a slew of career/breakout years. Miss on Simmons and we're pretty much there, aren't we?

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I firmly disagree because it's another year of having inadequate protection for Mahomes. It's just another area we couldn't address with a premium player and it forces their hand in FA.

Missing on pillar positions sets the franchise back, especially as the core ages.

If we didn't miss on FAU, would we have had to spend 7m to retain Omenihu? And if not Omenihu, do we need to spend a high 3rd on Gillotte instead of another area like getting a premium RB or adding another S, etc?

Missing, especially on high picks, absolutely matters.

The issue I have with this logic is yes missing on a a first rd pick hurts, but we’ve wasted more resources trying to fix this tackle which has played a bigger part in hurting the roster.

We have set two 3rd rd picks on fire (Wanya/Niang), 25% of the contract of a 2nd rd pick (Kingsley) and a 1st rd on Orlando Brown Jr for 2 yrs and this issue has only gotten worse.

It’s the to the point with tackles that I treat it like QB. I just don’t want “projects” anymore. Wanya Morris, Kingsley and even guys like Charles Grant. It feels like that pick has a horribly low chance of working out. History suggests that you have to get a left tackle in the first rd bc you are sure as hell not getting anything in FA but band-aide’s.

I think Simmons was worth the swing. He’s undeniably talented to play LT minus this injury. Nobody we have had any shot of getting was talented enough in the first place.

The extra draft capital helps here. Sure Clyde failed, but Sneed was lockdown corner, Gay was a good starter and Danna was a nice rotational player. Sure Felix hasn’t worked out, but Rice has softened the blow there providing a potential blue chipper.

I think the biggest issue we’ve had for 2 years is we’ve only had 2 positive immediate rookie contributors. Rice and Conner in 2023 and then Worthy and Hicks. There’s been no volume there like there was in 2021 and 2022.

Even without Simmons, I could legitimately see 4, maybe 5, players from this class making a positive impact this year. ONM, Royals and Williams will get their snaps. I’m very confident in that. I think Gillotte will push for snaps too bc he’s just that ****ing good. Also think Smith will be an immediate kickoff returner and get a handful of snaps on offense.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

The issue I have with this logic is yes missing on a a first rd pick hurts, but we’ve wasted more resources trying to fix this tackle which has played a bigger part in hurting the roster.

We have set two 3rd rd picks on fire (Wanya/Niang), 25% of the contract of a 2nd rd pick (Kingsley) and a 1st rd on Orlando Brown Jr for 2 yrs and this issue has only gotten worse.

It’s the to the point with tackles that I treat it like QB. I just don’t want “projects” anymore. Wanya Morris, Kingsley and even guys like Charles Grant. It feels like that pick has a horribly low chance of working out. History suggests that you have to get a left tackle in the first rd bc you are sure as hell not getting anything in FA but band-aide’s.

I think Simmons was worth the swing. He’s undeniably talented to play LT minus this injury. Nobody we have had any shot of getting was talented enough in the first place.

The extra draft capital helps here. Sure Clyde failed, but Sneed was lockdown corner, Gay was a good starter and Danna was a nice rotational player. Sure Felix hasn’t worked out, but Rice has softened the blow there providing a potential blue chipper.

I think the biggest issue we’ve had for 2 years is we’ve only had 2 positive immediate rookie contributors. Rice and Conner in 2023 and then Worthy and Hicks. There’s been no volume there like there was in 2021 and 2022.

Even without Simmons, I could legitimately see 4, maybe 5, players from this class making a positive impact this year. ONM, Royals and Williams will get their snaps. I’m very confident in that. I think Gillotte will push for snaps too bc he’s just that ****ing good. Also think Smith will be an immediate kickoff returner and get a handful of snaps on offense.

Oh NOW you've gone and done it...

(And Conner mostly sucks; he's been less of a 'contributor' than Wanya Morris)

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by kccrow

You're not this clueless are you?

That article was originally published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine.

I'll help you further:


Like many others, that Journal is housed on "PubMed." Since you might need help with that:


So if you really want to bash "PubMed" as if it's some non-legitimate source of information, then you're welcome to it but it just makes you look like a ****ing moron.

And, despite your attack on the study, it's as good a compilation of data as exists on the subject.

Bagh! What do these “experts” with years of training and experience know!?

Simmons knee is gonna heal like Wolverine and float on rainbows!

Jokes aside, all we can do now is hope for the best.

Go Chiefs!

[DJ's left nut]

It also still annoys the hell out of me that we lost Keondre Coburn. And torched a pick on Neil Farrell.

I really do not understand what we are doing at the NT position. It's a position they don't seem to care about but also a position they don't seem to trust anyone to actually play. It's so damn bizarre.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

Bagh! What do these “experts” with years of training and experience know!?

Simmons knee is gonna heal like Wolverine and float on rainbows!

Jokes aside, all we can do now is hope for the best.

Go Chiefs!

Someone said "This could very well be the last Left Tackle Patrick Mahomes ever plays behind..."

Well damn...that's a pretty interesting way to put it. And really it's not wrong. Get this right ONCE and you'll have to worry about finding a new QB again before you may have to worry about finding a new LT.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Oh NOW you've gone and done it...

(And Conner mostly sucks; he's been less of a 'contributor' than Wanya Morris)

I really hope we can play Conner more like they did in 2023 and not 2024. They lost Sneed and put this man in the slot.

Conner is a decent player when he can see everything in front of him. Good tackler, good blitzer. Does the Justin Reid role decent enough.

But good God. If his back is turned to the QB his ass is cooked. It’s over.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Someone said "This could very well be the last Left Tackle Patrick Mahomes ever plays behind..."

Well damn...that's a pretty interesting way to put it. And really it's not wrong. Get this right ONCE and you'll have to worry about finding a new QB again before you may have to worry about finding a new LT.

I read that too. Hopefully Mahomes has a Brady like longevity, but yeah, it's probably closer to reality than not if he works out.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RunKC

The issue I have with this logic is yes missing on a a first rd pick hurts, but we’ve wasted more resources trying to fix this tackle which has played a bigger part in hurting the roster.

We have set two 3rd rd picks on fire (Wanya/Niang), 25% of the contract of a 2nd rd pick (Kingsley) and a 1st rd on Orlando Brown Jr for 2 yrs and this issue has only gotten worse.

Niang, at the time he was drafted, was a swing backup to Fisher and Schwartz with the hope he'd develop as the eventual replacement at RT for Schwartz. What transpired in 2020 couldn't easily be expected.

Nonetheless, Niang did develop into a player capable of starting at RT in 2021, but he suffered some injuries, culminating in tearing his Patellar Tendon at the end of the year, which completely ruined him.

It wasn't as much a miss as it was an unfortunate injury, or he might still be starting at RT for us.

Veach not addressing RT in the 2022 draft in round 2 remains a mystery. Several solid options were there.

Morris was also drafted as a swing OT reserve with the hope that he could morph into a future starter at one of the tackle spots, but it was obvious in college he was better at RT. For a late 3rd rounder, he's gotten a ton of playing time the past couple of seasons and has definitely developed into a better player. There is some hope he might be a starter at RT in the future, yet. I don't know if I see that as a miss, and I don't think I see it as a waste. A lot of tackle reserves get taken in the 3rd and 4th.

Now, Kingsley, I certainly think not playing at OT is a slight misfire. You want to be able to develop a skill set like that to be at least a RT. Maybe that will happen in time yet. Starting him at OG to improve his timing and coordination might end up a blessing that lands him out at OT later on. If we end up with a good LG in the late 2nd, I won't complain, though.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by kccrow

You're not this clueless are you?

That article was originally published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine.

I'll help you further:


Like many others, that Journal is housed on "PubMed." Since you might need help with that:


So if you really want to bash "PubMed" as if it's some non-legitimate source of information, then you're welcome to it but it just makes you look like a ****ing moron.

And, despite your attack on the study, it's as good a compilation of data as exists on the subject.

WTF are you babbling about?

Where did I "bash" PubMed?

You are just making shit up and putting words in my mouth that I never said.

[TRR]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It also still annoys the hell out of me that we lost Keondre Coburn. And torched a pick on Neil Farrell.

I really do not understand what we are doing at the NT position. It's a position they don't seem to care about but also a position they don't seem to trust anyone to actually play. It's so damn bizarre.

I would be more upset if he was actually productive since his release. Agree with your assessment on the NT position though...they haven't really been able to find a complimentary player that can both be stout against the run & provide a rush when needed. I think Tillery could be a really sneaky good addition next to Jones as he's capable of both. Same goes for Norman-Lott.

I think they found the type of player they envisioned in Wharton, but, he wasn't very good against the run, at least not consistently.