Top 5 Pick Success Rate

[CrazyHorse]

Originally Posted by Mecca

I've yet to really figure out what Just Passin By is even trying to say he generally has no point other than trying to argue some kind of semantic that usually involves a phrase like "you aren't as smart as you think you are"

I'm going to go out on a limb and say, he's trying to say that taking a QB with no experience is risky. Since there has never been a QB with one year starting taken a year early that has ever done anything in the history of the NFL, it's especially risky. Since the bust rate of taking a QB in the NFL in the top 5 is the highest of any player, and that your propspect is one with only a years experience, making him a high risk prospect is a risk he would'nt take if he thought there was an actual player that stood more of a chance of being successful. Given we have so many needs.

I'm just guessing though.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by CrazyHorse

I'm going to go out on a limb and say, he's trying to say that taking a QB with no experience is risky. Since there has never been a QB with one year starting taken a year early that has ever done anything in the history of the NFL, it's especially risky. Since the bust rate of taking a QB in the NFL in the top 5 is the highest of any player, and that your propspect is one with only a years experience, making him a high risk prospect is a risk he would'nt take if he thought there was an actual player that stood more of a chance of being successful. Given we have so many needs.

I'm just guessing though.

Here's the 64K question:

Next year's class has no viable prospects from pro systems.

Are you going to burn another high pick on a guy like Bradford, who will have an even greater learning curve from college to the NFL than Sanchez?

You do realize that Sanchez can sit and learn, yes? That no one on here is advocating him starting opening day?

Do you also realize that this team has 7 playoff wins in history, 6 of which were by HOF QBs. The other one came against Todd Marinovich.

The list of QBs who have beaten us in the playoffs in the last 20 years is a laundry list of HOFers.

It also takes a QB 3 years to develop. By the time you build this fictitious team and then get the QB, what do you have? At best, the 2008 Ravens, a solid all around team whose QB isn't yet good enough to make a drive when they need one.

Does everyone really want the 1990's again?

[CrazyHorse]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Here's the 64K question:

Next year's class has no viable prospects from pro systems.

Are you going to burn another high pick on a guy like Bradford, who will have an even greater learning curve from college to the NFL than Sanchez?

You do realize that Sanchez can sit and learn, yes? That no one on here is advocating him starting opening day?

Do you also realize that this team has 7 playoff wins in history, 6 of which were by HOF QBs. The other one came against Todd Marinovich.

The list of QBs who have beaten us in the playoffs in the last 20 years is a laundry list of HOFers.

It also takes a QB 3 years to develop. By the time you build this fictitious team and then get the QB, what do you have? At best, the 2008 Ravens, a solid all around team whose QB isn't yet good enough to make a drive when they need one.

Does everyone really want the 1990's again?

If I personally picked Sanchez it would be out of desperation. Not because I thougt he was the best player. Is that the way to build a winner?

I'm in my mid 40's and have been a Chiefs fan for all of those senarios you guys speak of. But a knee jerk reaction is not the answer either. I've also seen how that works out.

I realize you think the guy will get it done in the long run. I don't. That's the difference.

You want to keep throwing up the history of the Chiefs in my face as a valid arguement of what not to do. However, you skate the same way of evaluating the player you want. If you look at history, Sanchez will bust.

Does that make it 100% absolute that it will happen? No. But there is no QB that has ever been taken that has succeeded under these circumstances.

Not drafting a player like that doesn't make you scared, it makes you dilligent.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by CrazyHorse

If I personally picked Sanchez it would be out of desperation. Not because I thougt he was the best player. Is that the way to build a winner?

I'm in my mid 40's and have been a Chiefs fan for all of those senarios you guys speak of. But a knee jerk reaction is not the answer either. I've also seen how that works out.

I realize you think the guy will get it done in the long run. I don't. That's the difference.

You want to keep throwing up the history of the Chiefs in my face as a valid arguement of what not to do. However, you skate the same way of evaluating the player you want. If you look at history, Sanchez will bust.

Does that make it 100% absolute that it will happen? No. But there is no QB that has ever been taken that has succeeded under these circumstances.

Not drafting a player like that doesn't make you scared, it makes you dilligent.

At some point, though, you have to kick diligence to the curb and take a chance. If you don't, you do the "prudent" thing every year and you never end up adding the pieces you need to win it all. EVERY QB, every year, has question marks, even Manning had them. He couldn't win the big game, they said. You just can't keep putting it off forever.

I could understand the argument that Sanchez is TOO risky if there were players on the board that had better value, but there just isn't. This draft SUCKS at the top - absolutely sucks.