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Old 04-13-2009, 07:18 AM  
Amnorix Amnorix is offline
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History of Trade Value of #3 Pick
Patriots fans are lucky enough to have two truly superb amateur NFL observers -- AdamTJ and Miguel.

Miguel is a salary cap guru, and Adam is a general guru. Adam runs a blog, and recently posted the trade history of all NFL draft picks since 1992.

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/

What has teh #3 pick garnered in the past, you ask?

In 1997 the #3 and 63 picks got back the 11, 41, 70 and 100th pciks

In 2000 the 3 got back the 12, 24, 119 and 154.

Not sure just how useful it is in light of the fact that the economic value of the top 5 picks has become fairly prohibitive, and the "most recent" data goes back to when Clinton was still President....
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Old 04-13-2009, 07:24 AM   #2
keg in kc keg in kc is offline
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If it happens, it'll probably be the least value to date.
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Old 04-13-2009, 07:34 AM   #3
Skip Towne Skip Towne is offline
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The #3 pick only has great value if it is owned by a team other than the Chiefs. If we have it, it is practically worthless.
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Old 04-13-2009, 07:36 AM   #4
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It's only worthless because we happen to have our highest pick in decades in one of the worst top-10s of all time. Any other year and we should get the farm for it. But not this year.
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Old 04-13-2009, 08:20 AM   #5
Amnorix Amnorix is offline
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It's only worthless because we happen to have our highest pick in decades in one of the worst top-10s of all time. Any other year and we should get the farm for it. But not this year.
Not necessarily. The "value" of the top 5 picks is steadily degrading due to the economic consequences of drafting in that range. Any player picked in the top five is automatically going to be THE HIGHEST paid player in the NFL at his position, which is absolutely absurd. The "value" sucks.
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Old 04-13-2009, 08:29 AM   #6
LaChapelle LaChapelle is offline
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What you want to do, is pick the most imediate bust. That way you can clear him off the now cap rich books. A so-so pick will hang on your cap for years. Picking a bust this year is a breeze.

This year is a god send, it's really all how you look at it
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Old 04-13-2009, 08:35 AM   #7
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The #3 pick only has great value if it is owned by a team other than the Chiefs. If we have it, it is practically worthless.
This....
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Old 04-13-2009, 08:38 AM   #8
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If it happens, it'll probably be the least value to date.
Well, the examples above are interesting. the first example the #3 overall pick was traded with a very high third round pick. This netted the team a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in return.

A good return on investment, but not a huge bounty of picks. Basically, the 1st was traded for a 1st and second, and the third was traded for a third and fourth.

In 2000, the team that wanted the third pick was the Redskins, so of course they overpaid. Even still, it was two firsts, a fourth and a fifth.

Last year, the Chiefs were offered the 10th overall pick, a 7th round pick and a first round pick in this year's draft for the #5 pick.

I think that Pioli would have taken that deal. I think that Pioli will be fine with taking a similar deal this year.

Will it be below market value according to the 'chart'? Probably, but it isn't about winning every deal on paper.... it is about doing everything you can to build the best possible team.
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Old 04-13-2009, 08:48 AM   #9
Micjones Micjones is offline
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I think the value of the pick won't match the Draft Value Chart, but I wouldn't just roll over to trade out of the #3 spot.

Has to net three picks.
Something like #12, #18, Fourth Round Pick
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Old 04-13-2009, 08:50 AM   #10
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Great info, thanks

All the pre-draft talk I have heard this year is Nobody wants to trade into the top 5.

According to these stats, a trade in the top 5 has happened 9 times since 1992 but not at all in the last 4 years.

I still think it's gonna happen this year. Somebody is going to panic and move up to grab Sanchez or Stafford.
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Old 04-13-2009, 08:53 AM   #11
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Old 04-13-2009, 09:04 AM   #12
Kyle DeLexus Kyle DeLexus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SensibleChiefsfan View Post
Well, the examples above are interesting. the first example the #3 overall pick was traded with a very high third round pick. This netted the team a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in return.

A good return on investment, but not a huge bounty of picks. Basically, the 1st was traded for a 1st and second, and the third was traded for a third and fourth.

In 2000, the team that wanted the third pick was the Redskins, so of course they overpaid. Even still, it was two firsts, a fourth and a fifth.

Last year, the Chiefs were offered the 10th overall pick, a 7th round pick and a first round pick in this year's draft for the #5 pick.

I think that Pioli would have taken that deal. I think that Pioli will be fine with taking a similar deal this year.

Will it be below market value according to the 'chart'? Probably, but it isn't about winning every deal on paper.... it is about doing everything you can to build the best possible team.
Man, that would have been nice having an extra first this year.
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Old 04-13-2009, 01:15 PM   #13
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Any player picked in the top five is automatically going to be THE HIGHEST paid player in the NFL at his position, which is absolutely absurd. The "value" sucks.
Even more so this year...
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Old 04-13-2009, 02:08 PM   #14
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It only sucks bc we have our LT and backed ourselves into a corner by trading for Cassel.
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Old 04-13-2009, 03:12 PM   #15
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The thing about them automatically being a top 5 paid player is why you take a player at a position that warrants the contract.
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