Statistical Analysis: Projecting NFL QB Failure Using College Stats

[Dante84]

Originally Posted by cdcox

At his peak, Pennington could not make all the throws due to lack of arm strength. That limits the amount of field that needs to be defended and makes the defenses job a lot easier. He wasn't going to take a team deep in the playoffs using his arm especially after the Raiders exposed him in the playoffs after the 2002 season. I called it then, and 2002 turned out to be the high water mark of his career.

Culpepper is an interesting case. We don't really know how his career would have panned out if he had stayed healthy. A lot of people think whatever success Culpepper had was largely due to Randy Moss. So assigning a rating to his pro career is very difficult.

Not to question the master, but couldn't you apply similar metrics (quality of defensive opponents, amount of support from various positions, completion percentage, td:int, clutch-ness, redzone efficiency, YPP, etc...) to the pro career and then see what the variance is between the college/pro, and then set the bar from there?

Yes, yes.... information gathering would take years. You need minions.