Statistical Analysis: Projecting NFL QB Failure Using College Stats

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Dante84

Not to question the master, but couldn't you apply similar metrics (quality of defensive opponents, amount of support from various positions, completion percentage, td:int, clutch-ness, redzone efficiency, YPP, etc...) to the pro career and then see what the variance is between the college/pro, and then set the bar from there?

Yes, yes.... information gathering would take years. You need minions.

This is essentially what I am trying to do through Sandbox: develop a set of metrics that quantify a player's contribution isolated from his opponents and team mates. It takes a lot of data and a lot of analysis. Several years from now, I'll have a decent data set on the pro-side. It's hard to go back in time due to: my time available and some of the data I use has only been collected for a few years.

Minions would be nice, but for most of the work I do, I don't know how to do it until I've done it. So it's hard to delegate.