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03-22-2013, 11:53 PM | |
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?
Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.
Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB? Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating. If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal. Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated. http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/ Kind of interesting and worth the read. |
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03-23-2013, 10:13 AM | #76 |
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The Donks just scored and it is 23-19 with 2:36 left in the game. Do you trust that your QB is capable of carrying the team on his back and orchestrate the epic last second TD drive? If yes, you have a franchise QB. If no, you need to keep looking until you find one.
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03-23-2013, 10:20 AM | #77 | |
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Listing examples, on the other hand, gives us a frame of reference. We can look at their Career Approximate Value (CAV) based on statistics stripping out emotion. Montana: 123 Elway: 138 Graham: 84 Staubach: 104 Marino: 145 Bradshaw: 106 P. Manning: 165 E. Manning: 86 Brady: 140 Roethlisberger: 86 Flacco: 55 OK, here are a couple of interesting facts about what you consider a "franchise QB": 1) with a couple of exceptions (Flacco and Roethlisberger) a franchise QB is either a current hall of famer or a future hall of famer, 2) with one exception (Flacco) all the QBs you've listed have a higher CAV than what you can typically expect with the number one overall pick (74). You've supported the very point I was making in the OP. Thank you. |
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03-23-2013, 10:27 AM | #78 |
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03-23-2013, 10:28 AM | #79 |
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So Brad Johnson is basicly the "mean" of 1st round QBs. So if Brad Johnsons skill set is the average the real question would be where does Genos skill set fall in the bell curve. I do think Brad Johnson is a very average QB. He was merely in the right place at the right time to get his SB ring. Awesome D along with Gruden vs Raiders/Gannon.
Time will tell us all where Geno belongs and whether taking him or passing was the correct decision. The biggest thing for the fans IMO is: If not now, when? This draft has the feel of '08 when it was Matt Ryan or Jake Long. No I don't really want "Matt Ryan" as my QB. He is not a franchise QB IMO. He cannot put a team on his back and win. So if Reid and Dorsey view Geno as "Matt Ryan" I hope we do pass on him because we would be stuck with a good QB that can't win you a SB.
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03-23-2013, 10:31 AM | #80 |
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03-23-2013, 10:34 AM | #81 |
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Could Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, or Tyler Bray could be a franchise QB? We don't know. They could be and the potential reward is worth the risk.
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03-23-2013, 10:34 AM | #82 | |
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We aren't talking about first round talent; we are talking about the first pick. Typically, you aren't going to get a player that Crush describes, you are going to get a Brad Johnson type of player. A player that everyone says isn't a franchise QB. This is simply a matter of stripping out the emotion. |
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03-23-2013, 10:37 AM | #83 |
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after i saw him go to shit in the KState game .. i lost my trust in him .. what could he do in the NFL with those defenses .. nothing .....
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03-23-2013, 10:43 AM | #84 |
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03-23-2013, 10:44 AM | #85 | |
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That isn't necessarily bad. Johnson had a couple of pro-bowls and a Super Bowl ring. |
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03-23-2013, 10:46 AM | #86 | |
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03-23-2013, 10:49 AM | #87 | ||||
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Missing on a QB in the top 10 is not an unforgivable sin. Quote:
THat said it's only true because most are huge booms or huge busts. All drafts have Manning's and Leaf's. The entire point is to have a GM and scouting dept. able to tell which is which. The point is to have people that can identify the possibles and the probables. If you don't not only will that pick bust but most that follow will as well...
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03-23-2013, 10:50 AM | #88 |
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Duh?
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03-23-2013, 10:52 AM | #89 |
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03-23-2013, 10:58 AM | #90 | |
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No, they don't. That is the whole point. |
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