Let's talk about the Buffalo Bills (Week 5)

[TLO]

Discuss

[Rainbarrel]

and saucey

[KChiefs1]

They have spunk.


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[tredadda]

Originally Posted by Jim V.

Note that I expect zip-a-dee-doo-dah from the Bills. Wake me up when they've won anything as well. As long as Mahomes is in the league, I'm not counting on it. If we manage to squeeze in a Super Bowl win during his career I will savor it. The man is a monster. However, perhaps this is the year the Bills can get that one title.

And if anyone had actually read what I said, I think without reading the press clippings Patrick Mahomes probably can't be beat, even with his horrible defense. But alas, here we are in 2021 and it's not cool to kinda chill on the self congratulation. So he can continue to show off and lose winnable games to the Chargers.



It's the truth. Been much more able to see their greatness after Brady left and stopped seeing red for five minutes after every time I thought about them. They are the measuring stick every NFL team from here on out will be measured by. And since I consider the Chiefs at the top of the mountain, thus I'm not gonna compare them to the Bills, who as of now haven't matched up at all (offense, defense, coaching) to them. I compare them to the best, the Pats of yore.

I dig the replies. Amusing. Keep 'em coming. I'm getting a good laugh. The Skip Bayliss comparison had me laughing out loud. And I'm not saying I disagree.

Also, I guess the thing about the Chiefs not being a dynasty is that on dumb ass places like ESPN all I ever hear is about how Patrick is the new GOAT and they are a dynasty in the making.

Lastly, am I the only one who finds the Tony Romo obsession with Mahomes a bit creepy? At first I dug Romo's analysis during the games and found him to be a top announcer. But he seriously thinks the man is capable of anything. He's human? Is Romo on the Chiefs payroll? He makes Collinsworth seem fair.

What? ESPN does that? How wildly inaccurate. What I have seen was...

1. After Mahomes had the second ever 5,000 and 50 season, it was said the "book" was out on him and he would regress. The same wasn't said for Baltimore's glorified RB or Herbert who both put up seasons that weren't as good.

2. Allen finished tied or ahead of Mahomes for MVP last year in spite of Mahomes beating Allen in every statistic, minus rushing yards. He had more passing yards, passing TDs, fewer INTs, higher QB rating, higher QBR, his team had more wins, and he beat Allen H2H....twice.

3. Mahomes can't beat Brady in spite of him and his 31st ranked defense beating Brady and his Top 15 defense in the 2018 AFCCG until Dee Ford lines up offsides. He also supposedly can't beat Brady because last year's SB had a banged up Oline and turf toe and lost to the ferocious TB defense that carried Brady through the NFC playoffs and to a SB.

4. He's already a SB MVP yet his SB was a product of "luck" while other QBs get the credit for performances like that.

Mahomes for as good as he's been does not nearly get the respect and praise he has earned and you think he gets.

[duncan_idaho]

This narrative that Mahomes is conceited or showing off and that’s why he threw the no-look pass against the Chargers is hilarious.

If you watched the play closely or even watched the all-22, you’d see him manipulating the secondary to set that up. Kemp was so wide open because Mahomes no-looked it. Should have been an easy TD.

Kid is humble and works his ass off, which is obvious to anyone who actually follows him.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

I think this is a very realistic outcome.

Chiefs jump out big. Chiefs coast on offense. Bills come back as our defense inevitably falls apart. Chiefs win a close game.

I think the difference now is, as long as the line keeps opening up holes the way they have been, we can still drive down the field and score while coasting.

[Jim V.]

Originally Posted by Boxer_Chief

My lord Bills fans are the worst. They are one of the few fan bases that feel the need to post on Chiefsplanet and there hasn’t been one that didn’t have the most horrific takes. Yes Mahomes is reading press clippings on the way to a record setting historic season. Easily the worst week is bills week.

Are seasons as historic if your final record is 10 and 7?

[mschiefs1984]

Originally Posted by New World Order

We’re going to smash their faces and slit their throats!!!!!

I hope you are right since I will be at Arrowhead for the game

[Jim V.]

Originally Posted by tredadda

What? ESPN does that? How wildly inaccurate. What I have seen was...

1. After Mahomes had the second ever 5,000 and 50 season, it was said the "book" was out on him and he would regress. The same wasn't said for Baltimore's glorified RB or Herbert who both put up seasons that weren't as good.

2. Allen finished tied or ahead of Mahomes for MVP last year in spite of Mahomes beating Allen in every statistic, minus rushing yards. He had more passing yards, passing TDs, fewer INTs, higher QB rating, higher QBR, his team had more wins, and he beat Allen H2H....twice.

3. Mahomes can't beat Brady in spite of him and his 31st ranked defense beating Brady and his Top 15 defense in the 2018 AFCCG until Dee Ford lines up offsides. He also supposedly can't beat Brady because last year's SB had a banged up Oline and turf toe and lost to the ferocious TB defense that carried Brady through the NFC playoffs and to a SB.

4. He's already a SB MVP yet his SB was a product of "luck" while other QBs get the credit for performances like that.

Mahomes for as good as he's been does not nearly get the respect and praise he has earned and you think he gets.

I'm seriously stunned to read that! Though I do think he's the most talented player in the NFL, the kinda garbage one hears from Steven A. Smith and the like on ESPN was that the Chiefs and the Bucs were both gonna go undefeated going into the Super Bowl and that there is Tom Brady, Pat Mahomes, maaaaybe Aaron Rodgers and then a bunch of guys who wish they could be them.

They have been super tough on Lamar asking if he could be a "real QB" as if what he is isn't real. And that he hasn't produced more than many. ESPN also couldn't give a flying shit about Josh Allen or the Buffalo Bills. To that segment of the media, the Chiefs are it, and teams like the Bills, Chargers and Ravens are pretenders.

My point is that yeah, Mahomes is great. Probably the best player in the league. But is he that much better than anyone else? I wouldn't say that. He's not Jesus. And perhaps my beef deserves to be more accurately pointed at ESPN and the hot-take sports media. But I don't think Mahomes helps things with his "look-at-me" ways. He's the Jimi Hendrix of the NFL. He's amazing, gonna be legendary. But Hendrix didn't have to light his guitar on fire or play behind his back to show how great he was. That was just window dressing. Just like ol' Paddy's no-look INTs.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by -King-

I think the difference now is, as long as the line keeps opening up holes the way they have been, we can still drive down the field and score while coasting.

I think the defense is so bad that it will be too much for the offense to be able to overcome.

[dma0034]

Originally Posted by Jim V.

I think ol' Patty has read a few too many of his paper clippings (and heard a bit too much of the dick slurping from ESPN and Tony Romo). He's been told he is already the GOAT and that nobody can touch him for a few years now and I think he's really feeling himself. And perhaps he should. But I think stuff like the no-look passes are unnecessary. And yes, I saw the one that got intercepted and while it wasn't his fault, I'm sure as a receiver it's probably a bit weird to have a guy who isn't looking at your throwing you the ball. Probably puts you behind a split second. And thus my point, his showing off is hurting the team. I think one reason (among many) why the Patriots basically ruled the NFL for nearly 20 years was that nobody was their own biggest fan. I despise them, but that whole "do your job" thing worked out kinda well for them. Brady may have had that annoying primal scream after scoring a touchdown and whatnot, but honestly the most annoying thing about that team is that they won and just kept on doing it without saying much of anything. Mahomes is great, but he's not the GOAT (yet). He's won as many Super Bowls as Brad Johnson and Jeff Hostetler. Do I expect him to win at least a few more? Sure. But until he wins as many as Aikman or Bradshaw or Montana, he's just a great QB who's done it once (Rodgers) but lost big to the true GOAT (we know who). But I think if they don't tamp down on the braggadocio, you might see the target on KC's back get bigger.

First off; as a Bills fan let me apologize for this incredibly stupid take. I think some fans want to discredit players just to try and prop their teams up and this is just a stupid take especially after the QB has 14 TDs in 4 games this year with almost no defense.


So I just wanted to talk a little bit about the Bills with you. As there is some changes compared to last year. So let's talk about the Offense.
First off; it hasn't been good. Josh Allen looked terrible against the Steelers and Dolphins; missed some easy throws. He dominated the WFT and looked good against Houston (not that that's saying much). The Bills have become more balanced on Offense; they can definitely lean a little on their running game (not as dominate as the Ravens or Browns or anything but decent). Sanders has been a good edition to the team but the WR have underwhelmed. The main issue with the Bills Offense right now is the O-Line play. They did just bench Cody Ford whom was pretty much useless but it is very concerning. If the Chiefs can pressure with 4 the Bills won't be able to keep up with Mahomes.

The Defense. It has been amazing this year. Star Lotuleli, the Bills DT, skipped all of last year due to Covid (and missed week 1). In one of those "you don't know what you got until it's gone" moments; the Bills fans favorite whipping boy really stood out when he wasn't playing. The Bills were the #2 Defense in 2019 and took a step back in 2020 because teams could gash them in the running game. Right now they are the #1 Defense; and yes... they beat some trash QBs (though I think Heinicke will actually be pretty decent). THe crazy part isn't that they shut out the Dolphins and Texans... it's what they did in the game. The Texans had 8 Total yards at the end of the 3rd quarter before the Bills pulled the starters. Most of the yardage from all those teams happened after the Bills pulled their starters. Now that said: Matt Milano has been the best Bills player for the first 4 games and he got hurt last week. If he doesn't play the Bills will not have an answer for Kelce at all. As some have mentioned the Bills did use the 2021 draft to target DEs to go after Mahomes. Rousseau has been decent but Epenesa in his second year looks like a man possessed. I do think the Bills are good enough to slow the Chiefs but I can easily see the Chiefs dropping 30+. My guess is the Bills will play similar to the first game last year where CEH destroyed them and see if Star makes an impact.

Special Teams. Kicker Bass is pretty good. Bills had a punt blocked and almost had another one in week 2. They also let the WFT recover a kickoff. So the ST is definitely a concerning area for the Bills.


The only chance the Bills will have at winning is to score on Offense. I thought they played very scared against the Chiefs last year in the AFC Championship game (not going for TDs for example). If the Bills Offense isn't clicking there is almost no chance they match up with the Chiefs. I for one am very interested to see how Allen does against the Chiefs defense this go round. The biggest disappointment I had last year was how the Chiefs defense dominated the Bills Offense; everyone knows the Chiefs are going to score points but to watch the Bills Offense look hapless was something else for me.

I say Final: Chiefs 31 Bills 27

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by dma0034

First off; as a Bills fan let me apologize for this incredibly stupid take. I think some fans want to discredit players just to try and prop their teams up and this is just a stupid take especially after the QB has 14 TDs in 4 games this year with almost no defense.


So I just wanted to talk a little bit about the Bills with you. As there is some changes compared to last year. So let's talk about the Offense.
First off; it hasn't been good. Josh Allen looked terrible against the Steelers and Dolphins; missed some easy throws. He dominated the WFT and looked good against Houston (not that that's saying much). The Bills have become more balanced on Offense; they can definitely lean a little on their running game (not as dominate as the Ravens or Browns or anything but decent). Sanders has been a good edition to the team but the WR have underwhelmed. The main issue with the Bills Offense right now is the O-Line play. They did just bench Cody Ford whom was pretty much useless but it is very concerning. If the Chiefs can pressure with 4 the Bills won't be able to keep up with Mahomes.

The Defense. It has been amazing this year. Star Lotuleli, the Bills DT, skipped all of last year due to Covid (and missed week 1). In one of those "you don't know what you got until it's gone" moments; the Bills fans favorite whipping boy really stood out when he wasn't playing. The Bills were the #2 Defense in 2019 and took a step back in 2020 because teams could gash them in the running game. Right now they are the #1 Defense; and yes... they beat some trash QBs (though I think Heinicke will actually be pretty decent). THe crazy part isn't that they shut out the Dolphins and Texans... it's what they did in the game. The Texans had 8 Total yards at the end of the 3rd quarter before the Bills pulled the starters. Most of the yardage from all those teams happened after the Bills pulled their starters. Now that said: Matt Milano has been the best Bills player for the first 4 games and he got hurt last week. If he doesn't play the Bills will not have an answer for Kelce at all. As some have mentioned the Bills did use the 2021 draft to target DEs to go after Mahomes. Rousseau has been decent but Epenesa in his second year looks like a man possessed. I do think the Bills are good enough to slow the Chiefs but I can easily see the Chiefs dropping 30+. My guess is the Bills will play similar to the first game last year where CEH destroyed them and see if Star makes an impact.

Special Teams. Kicker Bass is pretty good. Bills had a punt blocked and almost had another one in week 2. They also let the WFT recover a kickoff. So the ST is definitely a concerning area for the Bills.


The only chance the Bills will have at winning is to score on Offense. I thought they played very scared against the Chiefs last year in the AFC Championship game (not going for TDs for example). If the Bills Offense isn't clicking there is almost no chance they match up with the Chiefs. I for one am very interested to see how Allen does against the Chiefs defense this go round. The biggest disappointment I had last year was how the Chiefs defense dominated the Bills Offense; everyone knows the Chiefs are going to score points but to watch the Bills Offense look hapless was something else for me.

I say Final: Chiefs 31 Bills 27

You seem nice.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by dma0034

First off; as a Bills fan let me apologize for this incredibly stupid take. I think some fans want to discredit players just to try and prop their teams up and this is just a stupid take especially after the QB has 14 TDs in 4 games this year with almost no defense.


So I just wanted to talk a little bit about the Bills with you. As there is some changes compared to last year. So let's talk about the Offense.
First off; it hasn't been good. Josh Allen looked terrible against the Steelers and Dolphins; missed some easy throws. He dominated the WFT and looked good against Houston (not that that's saying much). The Bills have become more balanced on Offense; they can definitely lean a little on their running game (not as dominate as the Ravens or Browns or anything but decent). Sanders has been a good edition to the team but the WR have underwhelmed. The main issue with the Bills Offense right now is the O-Line play. They did just bench Cody Ford whom was pretty much useless but it is very concerning. If the Chiefs can pressure with 4 the Bills won't be able to keep up with Mahomes.

The Defense. It has been amazing this year. Star Lotuleli, the Bills DT, skipped all of last year due to Covid (and missed week 1). In one of those "you don't know what you got until it's gone" moments; the Bills fans favorite whipping boy really stood out when he wasn't playing. The Bills were the #2 Defense in 2019 and took a step back in 2020 because teams could gash them in the running game. Right now they are the #1 Defense; and yes... they beat some trash QBs (though I think Heinicke will actually be pretty decent). THe crazy part isn't that they shut out the Dolphins and Texans... it's what they did in the game. The Texans had 8 Total yards at the end of the 3rd quarter before the Bills pulled the starters. Most of the yardage from all those teams happened after the Bills pulled their starters. Now that said: Matt Milano has been the best Bills player for the first 4 games and he got hurt last week. If he doesn't play the Bills will not have an answer for Kelce at all. As some have mentioned the Bills did use the 2021 draft to target DEs to go after Mahomes. Rousseau has been decent but Epenesa in his second year looks like a man possessed. I do think the Bills are good enough to slow the Chiefs but I can easily see the Chiefs dropping 30+. My guess is the Bills will play similar to the first game last year where CEH destroyed them and see if Star makes an impact.

Special Teams. Kicker Bass is pretty good. Bills had a punt blocked and almost had another one in week 2. They also let the WFT recover a kickoff. So the ST is definitely a concerning area for the Bills.


The only chance the Bills will have at winning is to score on Offense. I thought they played very scared against the Chiefs last year in the AFC Championship game (not going for TDs for example). If the Bills Offense isn't clicking there is almost no chance they match up with the Chiefs. I for one am very interested to see how Allen does against the Chiefs defense this go round. The biggest disappointment I had last year was how the Chiefs defense dominated the Bills Offense; everyone knows the Chiefs are going to score points but to watch the Bills Offense look hapless was something else for me.

I say Final: Chiefs 31 Bills 27

Welcome. Good post.

I think you hit on the keys to the game here.

Can the Bills go back to the strategy from the regular season matchup and find more success defensively against the run?

This is kind of what I anticipate them doing on D. Safeties deep. Light boxes. Take away big plays. Dare KC to run and hope Lotuleilei can make a difference in the run game.

Looking at the Bills’ DL personnel, I think the Chiefs T match up fairly well. None of Buffalos main pass rushers (Epenesa, Hughes, Rousseau, Bashem) are speed rush guys. They’re all more power rushers, which does play into the strengths of Brown and Niang on the edges. It will be interesting to watch those matchups.

What may not be apparent from afar is how much the remade interior OL has changed the Chiefs front. They’ve got a lot more power and push from the middle.

As far as the Bills offensive personnel, I think KC will do the same type of thing to the Bills. I expect the Chiefs to use a LOT of big dime sets (with Dan Sorenson basically playing LB and only one true LB on the field) and maybe even heavy use of dollar sets, and have the Bills force them out of it.

With the Bills running 11 personnel so much (2/3 of snaps so far this year) and 21 personnel the rest of the time (1/4 of the snaps), I think it’s unlikely we see the Chiefs in the base 43 set much at all and maybe not even in the true nickel set all that much.

I can see this being a game where the Chiefs put Jones inside a lot more, either as a prelude to moving more to that approach, or just for this matchup. A lot will depend, IMO, on whether Frank Clark is available and they have enough depth at DE to make it work.

As a Chiefs fan, I think confidence from our side remains primarily because:

1) Spagnuolo has done a really good job in each of the matchups with Allen at confusing him with exotic looks and slowing his processing down. The D has struggled this year, yea, but the matchup here seems better for KC.

2) KC’s offense has quietly been brilliant, with the exception of some uncharacteristic turnovers. Even with them, they’re putting up a points-per-drive number right now that ranks with the most elite offenses we’ve seen this century (07 Patriots, 13 Broncos, etc.)

It’s also worth noting, IMO, that the Chiefs were without half of their 2 deep at CB against Philadelphia, and that they were also missing their projected starting WILL (and only true WILL type on the roster). Those factors hurt their pass D and make it hard for me to judge whether the final D can improve from “one of league worst” to “average” (which is all they really need with this offense).

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by dma0034

First off; as a Bills fan let me apologize for this incredibly stupid take. I think some fans want to discredit players just to try and prop their teams up and this is just a stupid take especially after the QB has 14 TDs in 4 games this year with almost no defense.


So I just wanted to talk a little bit about the Bills with you. As there is some changes compared to last year. So let's talk about the Offense.
First off; it hasn't been good. Josh Allen looked terrible against the Steelers and Dolphins; missed some easy throws. He dominated the WFT and looked good against Houston (not that that's saying much). The Bills have become more balanced on Offense; they can definitely lean a little on their running game (not as dominate as the Ravens or Browns or anything but decent). Sanders has been a good edition to the team but the WR have underwhelmed. The main issue with the Bills Offense right now is the O-Line play. They did just bench Cody Ford whom was pretty much useless but it is very concerning. If the Chiefs can pressure with 4 the Bills won't be able to keep up with Mahomes.

The Defense. It has been amazing this year. Star Lotuleli, the Bills DT, skipped all of last year due to Covid (and missed week 1). In one of those "you don't know what you got until it's gone" moments; the Bills fans favorite whipping boy really stood out when he wasn't playing. The Bills were the #2 Defense in 2019 and took a step back in 2020 because teams could gash them in the running game. Right now they are the #1 Defense; and yes... they beat some trash QBs (though I think Heinicke will actually be pretty decent). THe crazy part isn't that they shut out the Dolphins and Texans... it's what they did in the game. The Texans had 8 Total yards at the end of the 3rd quarter before the Bills pulled the starters. Most of the yardage from all those teams happened after the Bills pulled their starters. Now that said: Matt Milano has been the best Bills player for the first 4 games and he got hurt last week. If he doesn't play the Bills will not have an answer for Kelce at all. As some have mentioned the Bills did use the 2021 draft to target DEs to go after Mahomes. Rousseau has been decent but Epenesa in his second year looks like a man possessed. I do think the Bills are good enough to slow the Chiefs but I can easily see the Chiefs dropping 30+. My guess is the Bills will play similar to the first game last year where CEH destroyed them and see if Star makes an impact.

Special Teams. Kicker Bass is pretty good. Bills had a punt blocked and almost had another one in week 2. They also let the WFT recover a kickoff. So the ST is definitely a concerning area for the Bills.


The only chance the Bills will have at winning is to score on Offense. I thought they played very scared against the Chiefs last year in the AFC Championship game (not going for TDs for example). If the Bills Offense isn't clicking there is almost no chance they match up with the Chiefs. I for one am very interested to see how Allen does against the Chiefs defense this go round. The biggest disappointment I had last year was how the Chiefs defense dominated the Bills Offense; everyone knows the Chiefs are going to score points but to watch the Bills Offense look hapless was something else for me.

I say Final: Chiefs 31 Bills 27

Would welcome your thoughts on this but what seemed crazy about the Texans game was how many points you guys left out there in the first half, before really turning it on in the second. Even putting up 40 it looked to me like the offence wasn't yet at its peak. Fair?

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Welcome. Good post.

I think you hit on the keys to the game here.

Can the Bills go back to the strategy from the regular season matchup and find more success defensively against the run?

This is kind of what I anticipate them doing on D. Safeties deep. Light boxes. Take away big plays. Dare KC to run and hope Lotuleilei can make a difference in the run game.

Looking at the Bills’ DL personnel, I think the Chiefs T match up fairly well. None of Buffalos main pass rushers (Epenesa, Hughes, Rousseau, Bashem) are speed rush guys. They’re all more power rushers, which does play into the strengths of Brown and Niang on the edges. It will be interesting to watch those matchups.

What may not be apparent from afar is how much the remade interior OL has changed the Chiefs front. They’ve got a lot more power and push from the middle.

As far as the Bills offensive personnel, I think KC will do the same type of thing to the Bills. I expect the Chiefs to use a LOT of big dime sets (with Dan Sorenson basically playing LB and only one true LB on the field) and maybe even heavy use of dollar sets, and have the Bills force them out of it.

With the Bills running 11 personnel so much (2/3 of snaps so far this year) and 21 personnel the rest of the time (1/4 of the snaps), I think it’s unlikely we see the Chiefs in the base 43 set much at all and maybe not even in the true nickel set all that much.

I can see this being a game where the Chiefs put Jones inside a lot more, either as a prelude to moving more to that approach, or just for this matchup. A lot will depend, IMO, on whether Frank Clark is available and they have enough depth at DE to make it work.

As a Chiefs fan, I think confidence from our side remains primarily because:

1) Spagnuolo has done a really good job in each of the matchups with Allen at confusing him with exotic looks and slowing his processing down. The D has struggled this year, yea, but the matchup here seems better for KC.

2) KC’s offense has quietly been brilliant, with the exception of some uncharacteristic turnovers. Even with them, they’re putting up a points-per-drive number right now that ranks with the most elite offenses we’ve seen this century (07 Patriots, 13 Broncos, etc.)

It’s also worth noting, IMO, that the Chiefs were without half of their 2 deep at CB against Philadelphia, and that they were also missing their projected starting WILL (and only true WILL type on the roster). Those factors hurt their pass D and make it hard for me to judge whether the final D can improve from “one of league worst” to “average” (which is all they really need with this offense).

This is the key to the game. I was very confident we would beat the Ravens because Spags had perfect gameplans for Lamar previously.

But then we play the Ravens and act like we had never seen their offense before..lack of effort AND terrible scheme.

Against Allen, teams get in trouble when they get too concerned about his mobility. Many of the DC's in the NFL defaulted to stop a running QB, play zone.

Against Allen that is wrong, wrong, wrong. His rocket arm makes zone look like prevent.

Man with two deep safeties is the primary idea against Allen (see Ravens playoff game) with constant false looks. You want to make Allen feel sped up but you don't want to blitz too much, if you do come from the slot and make him move left.

Delay Allen for half second, second and you shift everything into your favor.

Allen thrives on tools..he does not do as well when his first look is covered.

[Chris Meck]

Our defense is going to have to play better, it's that simple.