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Old 11-23-2009, 12:34 PM  
Red Dawg Red Dawg is offline
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Anyone think Denver is done for the year?
I think the Giants, Colts and Iggles will end thier playoff dreams.
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Old 12-29-2009, 03:05 PM   #316
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I find KnowMo's recent absence from the forum to be striking. This is another example of why he's incredibly douchy compared to our other Bronco fans. If you're going to be a rival fan and talk smack on the board, that's fine and dandy. However, don't go hiding when your team's fortunes turn.
I hear you. OTOH it is the holiday season and mabye the kid *gasp* has other things to do than log onto teh intrawebs???
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Old 12-29-2009, 03:07 PM   #317
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Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
I find KnowMo's recent absence from the forum to be striking. This is another example of why he's incredibly douchy compared to our other Bronco fans. If you're going to be a rival fan and talk smack on the board, that's fine and dandy. However, don't go hiding when your team's fortunes turn.
Thats all I'm saying.Hell come on out with that AFCW champ,SB run,Kyle Aborton pro bowl,Mcfistpump HOF talk now.
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Old 12-29-2009, 03:19 PM   #318
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So basically we need 2 of the 3 of these to win, Steelers, Ravens, and Jets and the donks are out of the playoff's.
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Old 12-29-2009, 03:25 PM   #319
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Originally Posted by morphius View Post
So basically we need 2 of the 3 of these to win, Steelers, Ravens, and Jets and the donks are out of the playoff's.
Thats what Merril Hoge and everything I'm seeing on ESPN is saying,but Orange said it doesn't matter what I see cause only the NFL hands out playoff spots.
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Old 12-29-2009, 03:30 PM   #320
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Originally Posted by morphius View Post
So basically we need 2 of the 3 of these to win, Steelers, Ravens, and Jets and the donks are out of the playoff's.
Mostly anyway. If they end up with a multi-way tie, though, they'd win over the Steelers since the head-to-head tiebreaker wouldn't apply. For example, if we have:

Jets L
Steelers W
Broncos W
Ravens W
Texans W

Denver and the Ravens make it in.
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Old 12-29-2009, 03:32 PM   #321
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Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
Mostly anyway. If they end up with a multi-way tie, though, they'd win over the Steelers since the head-to-head tiebreaker wouldn't apply. For example, if we have:

Jets L
Steelers W
Broncos W
Ravens W
Texans W

Denver and the Ravens make it in.
They showed a scenario where they can win and not get in,but loose and get in.Crazy!!!!
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Old 12-29-2009, 03:59 PM   #322
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They showed a scenario where they can win and not get in,but loose and get in.Crazy!!!!
Yeah, it's by far the craziest set of circumstances I've seen going into week 17. There are essentially 128 different scenarios that could occur in the AFC playoff picture.

(I'm cheating and using cdcox's software rather than calculating this directly, so these numbers may be a hair off here or there, but...)

Of those 128 scenarios, here's how many times each team makes it in:

NY Jets 63
Baltimore 65
Denver 51
Houston 32
Pittsburgh 29
Jacksonville 12
Miami 4

Weighting those by seedy's win probabilities, here's the probability that each team will make it in:

NY Jets 65.0
Baltimore 79.54
Denver 31.76
Pittsburgh 17.22
Houston 4.52
Jacksonville 1.8
Miami 0.16

If you manually tweak the win probabilities a bit to assume that New England and Cincy might rest starters...

NY Jets 76.58
Baltimore 81.24
Denver 27.44
Pittsburgh 9.18
Houston 4.8
Jacksonville 0.66
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Old 12-29-2009, 04:02 PM   #323
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All BS aside,it's good to have this kind of playoff drama for week 17.Should make for one hell of a week and a crazy day to watch.
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Old 12-29-2009, 04:21 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
Mostly anyway. If they end up with a multi-way tie, though, they'd win over the Steelers since the head-to-head tiebreaker wouldn't apply. For example, if we have:

Jets L
Steelers W
Broncos W
Ravens W
Texans W

Denver and the Ravens make it in.
It is going to be interesting, NE could rest people because they don't have much to gain in winning, which gives Houston a good chance at winning. The Bengals could do the same, which give the Jets a good chance. Pit and Miami should be a fun one to watch, and that just leaves the Ravens at Oakland, which seems to enjoy their spoiler roll.
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Old 12-29-2009, 04:25 PM   #325
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It is going to be interesting, NE could rest people because they don't have much to gain in winning, which gives Houston a good chance at winning. The Bengals could do the same, which give the Jets a good chance. Pit and Miami should be a fun one to watch, and that just leaves the Ravens at Oakland, which seems to enjoy their spoiler roll.
I think the Jets play the sun night game to right? So that means waiting till sun night to see if lots of the scenarios work out.
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Old 12-29-2009, 04:28 PM   #326
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Well, Denver screwed themselves by losing to Oakland... with all the scenarios, the chances of them advancing now are pretty low and I'm not expecting it. If they do, then good... it would be a nice step forward.

The 6-0 start was incredibly surprising, but unfortunately they played in the last 9 games how I expected them to play in the first 9. They have surpassed my expectations for 2009, so if they miss it... I'm cool with it, as long as they continue to work towards building a consistently improving team for 2010. There's lots of good from this season and lots of bad as well, but with 8 wins and a shot at winning 9 games - the good certainly is greater than the bad in my estimation.
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Old 12-29-2009, 04:42 PM   #327
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Well, Denver screwed themselves by losing to Oakland... with all the scenarios, the chances of them advancing now are pretty low and I'm not expecting it. If they do, then good... it would be a nice step forward.

The 6-0 start was incredibly surprising, but unfortunately they played in the last 9 games how I expected them to play in the first 9. They have surpassed my expectations for 2009, so if they miss it... I'm cool with it, as long as they continue to work towards building a consistently improving team for 2010. There's lots of good from this season and lots of bad as well, but with 8 wins and a shot at winning 9 games - the good certainly is greater than the bad in my estimation.
Yep, you can't lose home games to teams you are supposed to beat and expect to lock down a playoff spot.
The bad news is this weekend will probably represent the end of the Bronco football season. The good news is I'll be watching at a bar in Ft. Myers gearing up for the Orange Bowl.
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Old 12-29-2009, 10:42 PM   #328
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Old 12-29-2009, 10:45 PM   #329
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Old 12-30-2009, 05:32 AM   #330
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