Sac's 2014 NFL Mock

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I watched him miss tackles, and get some tackles he definitely won't in the NFL. I appreciate the video because he shows a few things he does wrong constantly. He routinely drops his head when he tackles and that's led to whiffs. See 2:02 and 2:50 of your video. He takes guys on up high often, where he'll get blown up. See the first play of your video. He also drag tackles from the side alot, which won't fly in the NFL. I may have overstated myself a bit, but he's by no means a "good" tackler. He's below average. I should have probably said that. A bad tackler is Bennett Jackson from Notre Dame. But what skews my opinion of Dix more is that I don't think he's as good in coverage as people make him out to be. He's good in man coverage, for sure. He does, at times, make some really good plays on the ball. Where I've seen him struggle is in deep zone, which is essentially the place everyone wants him to play in KC. You watch that A&M game and you see him in the same positions we saw Lewis last year, and that scares the crap out of me. I don't know that you can rely on him as a single-high. I think he fits best in a cover-2. I think, in terms of a deep zone safety that can play the ball, you'll be hard pressed to beat Ed Reynolds of Stanford, but he is a worse tackler than Dix. Its hard to find that perfect blend of range and tackling ability. Best prospect in that regard, if you were to ask me, is Jimmie Ward of NIU. He's the top safety on my board for KC. I respect the opinions on Dix, he's going to fit well for a team. I don't think he fits for KC though. I'm leery.

I'm really high on Ward as well. Out of everyone, he reminds me the most of Earl Thomas. Plus his 4.4 times at his pro-day and great 38" vert with 10'6" broad jump to confirm his explosive power just further cements him ahead of Dix for me. Way better test numbers and better on film, IMO.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by OldSchool

I'm really high on Ward as well. Out of everyone, he reminds me the most of Earl Thomas. Plus his 4.4 times at his pro-day and great 38" vert with 10'6" broad jump to confirm his explosive power just further cements him ahead of Dix for me. Way better test numbers and better on film, IMO.

Can you link me to Wards Pro Day info?

[RunKC]

I would rather get a veteran safety. I do t trust any rookie vs manning next year

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I would rather get a veteran safety. I do t trust any rookie vs manning next year

I'd agree, with the exception that Dix has played free safety in a system that effectively is what he'd see/be asked to do at his position under Sutton with the Chiefs.

There is definitely less of a transition period for Dix than any other rookie safety for the Chiefs defense, IMO.

[Saccopoo]

If I'm the Chiefs, I know which one I'm favoring:

Clinton-Dix is regarded as the better prospect in coverage, while Pryor, according to NFL Media analyst Mike Mayock is more of an "inside the box" safety. Speed might, thus, figure to be a slightly more important attribute for Clinton-Dix, and he noted at the combine that his ability to handle slot receivers in man coverage and play a variety of roles in the secondary should propel him on draft boards.

What may matter more, however, is whether the first team prepared to draft a safety in the first round prefers a strong safety type (Pryor) or a free safety type (Clinton-Dix).

"They're different flavors," Mayock said. "For me, Calvin Pryor is like a bigger, stronger Bob Sanders. He flies around, he hits people, he explodes everywhere. I think he's a little better in the box than he is on the back end. It might be just because of the way Louisville used him.

"Clinton-Dix, on the other hand, has better range. I think he's more of a deep-third, deep pass guy. He tackles well, he can invert up into the box. I think he's a complete player. Both of those guys I wouldn't even blink if they went at No. 10."

Which player goes first in the draft this May could come down to whether teams want a strong safety-type of player (such as the hard-hitting Pryor) or a free safety (like the swift Clinton-Dix).

“Separating the two hasn't been easy for scouts entering the combine, and the same official 40 times won't make it any easier coming out of it, either,” wrote NFL.com’s Chase Goodbread. “The smallest of margins could manifest into the biggest of differences where the rookie contracts of the two prospects are concerned.”

Pryor, who numbered three interceptions last season and forced a pair of fumbles, will certainly play on Sundays this fall. NFL.com’s evaluators rate him at 6.15, in the range of players who “should become an instant starter.”

The Port St. Joe, Fla., product said he’d like to shape his game around the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Troy Polamalu and the Seattle Seahawks’ Kam Chancellor — players who he said “get into position to move around. They make plays.”

One thing working against Pryor? While U of L’s roster listed him at 6-foot-2, he measured at 5-11 when measured at the combine.

As much as the versatility matters, it's Clinton-Dix's range that can separate him. Similar to Earl Thomas in Seattle, Clinton-Dix can play in the deep half of the field and chase down receivers, and also play man coverage in the slot. He had a two-game suspension and a knee injury during his senior season, yet still finished first-team all-Southeastern Conference and does not turn 22 until December.

Nice size and body length. Quick to read and react. Has speed and flexibility to match up with slot receivers or tight ends. Ranges off the hash. Good hands to intercept. Effective run supporter -- drops downhill with conviction and does not shy from contact. Takes direct angles to the ball. Runs the alley and wipes out ball carriers. Secure tackler. Can break down and tackle in space. Has special-teams experience. Well-coached in a pro-style defense. - NFL.com

[Direckshun]

I don't think Clinton-Dix is some great tackler, but if the biggest weakness on my single-high free safety is that he's weak against the run, I'll take it.

[RealSNR]

Stale QBs who don't win shit can stink up a franchise pretty bad.

Schaub hasn't improved at all since his 2nd year as a starting QB for the Texans. He just had an absolutely awful season characterized by consecutive pick-6s and got benched in favor of Case Keenum.

They absolutely have to get him off the team. And when they do, they'll need a replacement. It's gotta be a QB there.

[RealSNR]

Sac, how would you go about Houston's QB situation? Start Keenum? Start a rookie? Pick off one of the free agent dudes?

You just can't go from playoff winner to 2-14 with virtually the same roster and start the same QB that oversaw that downfall. You just can't.

[Mugsy]

Originally Posted by SNR

Sac, how would you go about Houston's QB situation? Start Keenum? Start a rookie? Pick off one of the free agent dudes?

You just can't go from playoff winner to 2-14 with virtually the same roster and start the same QB that oversaw that downfall. You just can't.

That #33 pick they've got is valuable. They might just take Clowney and trade back into the first. I've been keeping my fingers crossed that KC just might be the suitor in that situation. I really could see Manziel falling in the draft. However, I don't think he'll make it past San Francisco. He would be perfect there and Harabaugh would want him. KC won't ask for as much as some the other teams in the bottom of the first because we need picks. It's a longshot but I could see it happening.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Mugsy

That #33 pick they've got is valuable. They might just take Clowney and trade back into the first. I've been keeping my fingers crossed that KC just might be the suitor in that situation. I really could see Manziel falling in the draft. However, I don't think he'll make it past San Francisco. He would be perfect there and Harabaugh would want him. KC won't ask for as much as some the other teams in the bottom of the first because we need picks. It's a longshot but I could see it happening.

Seriously?

San Francisco?

Yeah, I don't think so.

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by milkman

Seriously?

San Francisco?

Yeah, I don't think so.

SF is taking Garoppolo in the 1st, lol. Jk, it would just be hilarious if they did though.

[Mugsy]

Originally Posted by milkman

Seriously?

San Francisco?

Yeah, I don't think so.

Their back up is Colt McCoy.

Kapernick wants a ton of money and regressed last year.

Manziel is perfect for that offense.

San Francisco has two second round picks.

They could totally take Johnny Football if he fell to them.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by SNR

Sac, how would you go about Houston's QB situation? Start Keenum? Start a rookie? Pick off one of the free agent dudes?

You just can't go from playoff winner to 2-14 with virtually the same roster and start the same QB that oversaw that downfall. You just can't.

Honestly, I don't know what you do.

You might be able to chalk it up to just a weird ass anomaly type of season that ended up with the head coach stroking it and subsequently getting replaced/retired.

I know Schaub isn't the answer, but I don't think Bortles or Bridgewater are either. Manziel is tempting, but that's a team that's ready to win it all right now. A team that really, in all honesty, has to win right now. You don't get many shots at it in terms of player talent and groupings as the Texans have right now.

They've got the best defensive player in football, a solid if unspectactular LB corps, a top three OT, good receivers, etc. It's a solid team. You can't expect a Russell Wilson type of impact from a rookie QB. That was the exception versus the norm.

I think that you go into the season with a renewed sense of hope based on the 2012 season and just wipe the weird ass 2013 off the memory banks.

You hope that Schaub regains what he had versus succumbs to what just was and that Keenum builds off his experience from last season.

I know that you don't pass on generational talent, especially at the pass rush position for what looks to be an average QB lot outside of Manziel (and who the hell knows what you end up with there when it's all said and done - the guy could be Fran Tarkenton or he could be Akili Smith...you just don't know). Pass rush, elite pass rush, is second only to the QB position, and guys of Clowney's potential are just as rare as franchise level QB's. It's like the Colts passing on Andrew Luck for Trent Richardson. (Though it's funny that they ended up with him anyway.)

If I'm the Texans, I pick Clowney and then take Derek Carr in the second if he's still available. I think Carr is on the same general level as Bridgewater and would give the Texans a solid option at that point. Garrapollo would be an alternate here.

If I still didn't pick one there, I'd hope for the fourth round miracle and draft AJ McCarron, who I think has a chance to be a pretty good QB in the NFL. He'd fit the Texans rather well actually, is used to big game settings and has been very productive. I think he's got the potential of someone like Nick Foles if given the chance in terms of being successful if matched with the right team.

But I wouldn't pass on Clowney for Bridgewater or Bortles. No way, no how. Pass rush is far too important and Clowney is far too good of a prospect at the pass rush position. Getting pressure off Watt would reap immediate dividends regardless of what Clowney does as a rookie stats wise.

Nope. In my mind, you'd be ****ing reeruned passing on a generational pass rusher for a guy who projects to no better than a middle of the pack QB at best.

[Easy 6]

I could certainly live with the consensus best safety in this draft at #1, been saying all along that I want a 4-2 ratio defense to offense... this would be a great start towards that.

Between Commings and Dix we're likely to have that base well covered.

Berry/Abdullah, Commings/Dix... yeah, works for me.

[Mugsy]

Originally Posted by scott free

I could certainly live with the consensus best safety in this draft at #1, been saying all along that I want a 4-2 ratio defense to offense... this would be a great start towards that.

Between Commings and Dix we're likely to have that base well covered.

Berry/Abdullah, Commings/Dix... yeah, works for me.

I don't have much faith in Commings as a starter. He's never played safety and wasn't a very good CB in the first place.