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Old 09-30-2014, 01:35 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Late night bullshit: The path to a wild card berth.
The records of teams to get wildcards in the AFC of the last three years:

2013: Chiefs 11-5, Chargers 9-7

2012: Colts 11-5, Bengals 10-6

2011: Steelers 12-4, Bengals 9-7

In the last three years, 100% of the AFC teams that have finished 10-6 or better got into the playoffs, at least as Wild Cards.

In the last three years, three non-division winners finished 9-7, and only the 2011 Titans failed to secure a Wild Card berth. Zero teams with 8-8 or worse have received a WC berth.

That roughly means that if you're not winning your division in today's AFC, you've got a 0% chance to get in if you finish 8-8 or worse. Teams that finish 9-7 have a 2/3s chance of getting in. And teams that finish better than that get in 100% of the time.

The Chiefs have five games for the remainder of the season that they should definitely win:
  • Week 8, hosting the Rams
  • Week 9, hosting the Jets
  • Week 10, hosting the Bills
  • Week 12, hosting the Raiders
  • Week 15, visiting Oakland
With those 5 games in our pocket -- and obviously nothing is a sure thing -- that should give us a starting position of 7-2.

Which means, to get to that magical 9-7 threshold, we need two more wins. And three more wins if we want to be a sure thing.

The remaining games to get two wins from:
  • Week 5, visiting San Francisco
  • Week 7, visiting San Diego
  • Week 11, hosting the Seahawks
  • Week 13, hosting the Broncos
  • Week 14, visiting Arizona
  • Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh
  • Week 17, hosting the Chargers
I would hope the Chiefs could secure at least two more wins here, but I'll be damned if I know where it is.

Shit, this year's schedule is brutal.
Last edited by Direckshun; 09-30-2014 at 04:21 AM..
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Old 10-23-2014, 09:11 AM   #31
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Agreed. We are 2-2 against winning teams (3-2 when Miami wins vs Jags this week).
We've beaten 2 5-2 teams.
SD hasn't beaten a winning team all season. If anything, the Chargers are the 2013 Chiefs.
Easy, buster.

The Chargers beat the Seahawks. Russell Wilson is not exactly Jeff Teul.
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Old 10-23-2014, 09:13 AM   #32
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We need to continue to improve. A nice long wins streak, say 4 or 5 straight would go a long way.
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Old 10-23-2014, 09:19 AM   #33
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Old 10-23-2014, 09:22 AM   #34
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Winning the next three upeople to that matchup with the Seahawks would be great.

Maybe they'll keep falling apart til then
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Old 10-23-2014, 09:25 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by Three7s View Post
If we're talking two wins against the tougher teams, Pittsburgh and San Diego would help us the most. They'll both be in the wild card race.

This is absolutely right.
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Old 10-23-2014, 09:27 AM   #36
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Next three games are supremely winnable.

Rams, Jets, Bills.
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Old 10-23-2014, 09:39 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Next three games are supremely winnable.

Rams, Jets, Bills.
I thought we traded you.
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Old 10-23-2014, 09:45 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Just to recap.

The Chiefs absolutely need to win all FIVE of the winnable games:

Week 8, hosting the Rams
Week 9, hosting the Jets
Week 10, hosting the Bills
Week 12, hosting the Raiders
Week 15, visiting the Raiders

And now that they have defeated the Chargers, they need to win ONE of the following games to finish 9-7 and have a 2/3s chance at the postseason:

Week 11, hosting the Seahawks
Week 13, hosting the Broncos
Week 14, visiting Arizona
Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh
Week 17, hosting the Chargers

If the Chiefs win TWO of those games (while winning all five of the others), they're 10-6, and recent history suggests they'd be a lock for the playoffs.
It could happen!
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Old 10-23-2014, 10:27 AM   #39
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I thought we traded you.
AND THIS IS HOW I FIND OUT?
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Old 10-23-2014, 11:01 AM   #40
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AND THIS IS HOW I FIND OUT?
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Old 10-23-2014, 12:37 PM   #41
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SD hasn't beaten a winning team all season. If anything, the Chargers are the 2013 Chiefs.
they beat the Bills, numb nuts.

I would pick the Texans, Steelers, Chargers, and Bengals for WC spots before the Alex Smiffs.
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Old 10-23-2014, 12:44 PM   #42
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AND THIS IS HOW I FIND OUT?
You aren't the first to get fired on Chiefsplanet...
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Old 10-23-2014, 12:50 PM   #43
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they beat the Bills, numb nuts.

I would pick the Texans, Steelers, Chargers, and Bengals for WC spots before the Alex Smiffs.
You seem nice Brian.
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Old 10-23-2014, 09:31 PM   #44
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Well, got a loss we needed
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Old 10-23-2014, 09:32 PM   #45
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Now we need the Steelers and Bills to start looking like the shit stains they truly are while the Bengals keep faltering.

While, of course, we rip off these three straight wins that we need!
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