Drop rates for WRs.

[Dante84]

I know, I know... another WR thread.

But I can *never* find this stat anywhere prior to a draft, and I always want to know it, so I am dropping it here for reference. Yes, PFF is flawed, but at least someone's tracking this stat.

Career drop rates

George Pickens: 2.1%
Skyy Moore: 3.3%

Chris Olave: 4.7%
Jahan Dotson: 5.1%
Drake London: 5.7

Alec Pierce: 6.4%
Garrett Wilson: 6.8%
Justyn Ross: 7.1%
Treylon Burks: 7.4%
Jameson Williams: 7.7%
Jalen Tolbert: 8.4%

Christian Watson: 12.7% pic.twitter.com/QH1qlhHq2L

— Ben Linsey (@PFF_Linsey) April 7, 2022

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

MVS is.

You’re right. Forgot it was a 3 year deal that was essentially a 2. Thought it was 2 that was essentially a 1.

Point still stands though. If there’s a WR on the board they like in the first 2 rounds, they’re taking them.

[Toad]

Thanks Dante! Good information.

Watson’s dents were his drops and level of competition. This certainly validates the drops. He may slide a bit with that stat alone.

[Toad]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Pickens is really growing on me.

HeeBeeJeeBees are subsiding?…

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

And I wouldn't be surprised to see Juju get a 2nd contract from us if he succeeds in this offense.

If he succeeds in this offense I'll be convinced that most anyone with baseline ability can (which I'm already MOSTLY convinced of).

The guy's taken 2 straight 'make good' deals - he's going to continue to look for that big bag until he just ages out of the prime years to do so. If he succeeds this year, he's going to be looking for 3/$60 million and I'm just not interested in paying someone with his skill-set that.

I still think he's almost completely fungible and we should be looking at drafting/developing someone like Tolbert to become a more explosive version of him long-term. Pierce could probably play a similar role to JJSS by mid-season.

[saphojunkie]

Pickens just for the thread title when he shows up to camp out of shape.

[saphojunkie]

Originally Posted by staylor26

That’s exactly my argument for Dotson.

Dude gets separation and he has great hands. He’s also been extremely productive the last 2 years.

He’s the perfect high floor pick to go with a high upside guy like Ojabo.

I know RAS isn't everything, but Dotson's low score gives me pause. Is that just due to size?

Edit: size and three cone, which was terrible.

[UChieffyBugger]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Bell isn't a good system fit, IMO. Too stiff - too much of a 50/50 sort of receiver.

Give me someone that will drop another ball every few games over someone that can't get into space every single time.

Imo he could br the Cooper Kupp of this draft. The guy is a smart route runner who just knows how to get open consistently despite not being a burner. He's also one of the youngest guys in the class so has more room to improve further than some others.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by saphojunkie

I know RAS isn't everything, but Dotson's low score gives me pause. Is that just due to size?

Edit: size and three cone, which was terrible.

Not at all concerned.

He’s Diontae Johnson with better hands.

That’s a pretty damn good player.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Not at all concerned.

He’s Diontae Johnson with better hands.

That’s a pretty damn good player.

But he was a 3rd rd pick. Listen I like some things about Dotson. Love Skyy Moore more than him but at this point unless they go with Pickens there’s no way in hell either of those guys should be taken in the 1st rd.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by RunKC

But he was a 3rd rd pick. Listen I like some things about Dotson. Love Skyy Moore more than him but at this point unless they go with Pickens there’s no way in hell either of those guys should be taken in the 1st rd.

There are really only a couple of WRs that I would take in the first round at 29 or 30. Other than them....it would be a reach.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by RunKC

But he was a 3rd rd pick. Listen I like some things about Dotson. Love Skyy Moore more than him but at this point unless they go with Pickens there’s no way in hell either of those guys should be taken in the 1st rd.

I really don’t care where he went.

He absolutely would’ve been a 1st round pick in a redraft.

[staylor26]

This seems like another one of those situations where people can’t seem to accept the consensus.

Dotson is a consensus top 30-40 player. It doesn’t matter whether it’s DJ, Zierlein, PFN, TDN, PFF etc.

He’s not exactly my preference at 29/30, but he would be a solid pick there, and definitely wouldn’t be a reach.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I really don’t care where he went.

He absolutely would’ve been a 1st round pick in a redraft.

There are guys taken in the 2nd and 3rd rd that are 1st rd caliber in redrafts. You could make an argument that the Steelers had three in Juju, Claypool and Johnson.

So why take a WR in the first?

I think the value is going to be so much better with guys like Sky Moore who looks like a faster better version of Diontae Johnson.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by RunKC

There are guys taken in the 2nd and 3rd rd that are 1st rd caliber in redrafts. You could make an argument that the Steelers had three in Juju, Claypool and Johnson.

So why take a WR in the first?

I think the value is going to be so much better with guys like Sky Moore who looks like a faster better version of Diontae Johnson.

I’m not necessarily arguing for Dotson in the 1st.

But it would be a solid pick nonetheless. Dude has 2 very productive seasons under his belt and a very high floor. Unlike Moore, he’s shown more ability to play on the outside too, which is why I have him a bit higher.

[RunKC]

Not shitting on Dotson either. Just bc I like Skyy better doesn’t mean I don’t like him. I’d be happy with Dotson