Bradford Doolittle: Chiefs shouldn't discount Thigpen

[FringeNC]

Chiefs shouldn't discount Thigpen

While Chiefs fans are stuck in limbo waiting for new coach, let's talk some actual on-the-field football and address a little personnel matter. Actually, it's not so little. If it weren't for all the turmoil surrounding the leadership of the Chiefs, this would be the No. 1 question on the minds of their fans right now. The question is simple and its answer will no doubt have serious ramifications in regards to who KC selects with the third pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Is Tyler Thigpen a legitimate NFL quarterback?

Let's start with some scouting observations. First, from his rivals.com profile based on his college days:

* "Has a live arm with a compact delivery and has developed a nice understanding of defenses. He is quick in his setup and has the mobility to avoid the pass rush. ... He needs work on the finer points of the position to maximize his fine arm and athletic ability. ... Could become a regular in the right setting with development."

That sounds about right. Next, let's turn to Pro Football Prospectus, which bases its observations on statistical analysis and also features a nifty system for projecting the pro performance of college quarterbacks. In 2007, after Thigpen had been drafted by Minnesota, PFP wrote:

* "He's an undersized scrambler with bad mechanics."

Not a glowing report and clashes with the Rivals piece. However, in 2008, PFP dug a little deeper:

* "Apparently we didn't know what the Vikings had, and neither did the Vikings. ... relies too much on physical gifts, trying to make plays that worked fine against the Division I-AA or Division II stars, but will get him destoyed in the NFL. ... In a perfect world, he turns into (the Chiefs') version of Derek Anderson."

This was in the last offseason, when becoming Derek Anderson seemed like a good thing. PFP also offered its first statistical projection of Thigpen: 56.7% completion, 17 TD/16 INT in 493 attempts and a -32.1% DVOA (read about that stat here). His actual numbers: 54.8%, 18 TD/12 INT, -6.1% DVOA -- much better than projected.

So, as you would expect with a seventh-round pick, the scouting reports aren't glowing but there were some things to like, some upside potential and the Chiefs did well to grab Thigpen when the Vikings tried to sneak him through waivers. Could they have expected Thigpen to emerge as their starting quarterback in his second year in the NFL? Certainly not. It's exceedingly rare for a seventh-round quarterback to play -- ever. But it happens. Since 1990, there have been eight QBs drafted in rounds seven or later that eventually became the primary starter for their team for at least one season:

1. Brad Johnson
2. Trent Green
3. Gus Frerotte
4. Elvis Grbac
5. Kent Graham
6. Ty Detmer
7. Tim Rattay
8. Matt Cassell

Not exactly a murderer's row of signal-callers and a couple of guys KC fans are quite familiar with. There are six pro-bowl seasons mixed in there and Johnson was the starting QB on a Super Bowl champion. Of these, Green and Frerotte were both starters in their second season. Those two have combined to throw for nearly 50,000 yards in the NFL. So it's not out of the question that a guy like Thigpen could turn into a good starting quarterback. At the same time, guys like him are the exception not the rule: There were 67 quarterbacks taken in the seventh round or later in the time frame I examined.

COMPARABLES

The upshot of Thigpen getting so much field time last season is that you actually have some empircal data with which to work. That's always good. What we're interested in finding out is how quarterbacks with similar statistical profiles to Thigpen eventually developed. The hope is that we can hazard some sort of guess at what the chances are that Thigpen develops into a legit NFL starter.

Technical explanation for what I've done: I calculated a "similarity score" for Thigpen and every quarterback that's thrown at least 100 passes in an NFL season since 1995. I've chosen that time frame because that's how far back the data at Football Outsiders dates back and I wanted to use that as part of my criteria. After doing that, I narrowed the list down to seasons for first- and second-year quarterbacks. There are 109 such seasons. I've only looked at passing categories.

Here are the categories I used in my sim score calculation: completion percentage, yards per attempt above/below league average, first down percentage, TD/INT differential (TD-INT divided by pass attempts), sack percentage, percentage of completed passes for short yardage (1-19 yards), percentage of completed passes for medium yardage (20-39 yards), percentage of completed passes for long yardage (40+ yards) and DVOA.

Here are the 10-most similar QB seasons for first- and second-year players to Thigpen's 2008 campaign:

1. Patrick Ramsey, 2003
2. Damon Huard, 1999
3. Trent Green, 1998
4. Bobby Hoying, 1997
5. Shaun King, 1999
6. Donovan McNabb, 2000
7. Patrick Ramsey, 2002
8. Aaron Brooks, 2001
9. Jason Campbell, 2006
10. Chris Simms, 2005 (When he had his spleen, Gene)

That's a pretty good range of quarterbacks, both in the positive and the negative. McNabb is the name that jumps out at you, but let's not forget our scouting report/draft position knowledge. McNabb was very highly rated and was the second player picked in the 1999 draft.

However, Green, as we've pointed out, was a seventh-round pick. So if you agree that draft position is a good proxy for consensus scouting opinion, then in many respects, Trent Green represents the ceiling for Tyler Thigpen. The likes of Ramsey, Hoying, King, et al, represent the floor, at least as it pertains to our sample of young starters. Thigpen has already exceeded his literal floor -- those dozens of late-round QBs that never saw the field in an NFL game.

CAREER VALUE

To recap, what we've done to this point is to identify the 109 quarterback seasons posted by players that, like Thigpen, played extensively by their second year in the league. Then we calculated which of those players were most similar to Thigpen. Now, our next step is to look at the development of these similar players.

I sorted my list by similarity scores, then cut it off at the 22 most similar QBs. I wanted to pick the top 20, but Patrick Ramsey and Shaun King, who started in both their first and second years in the NFL, are listed twice, so I added two more. As a proxy for career value, I used Football Outsiders' DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) metric, prorated for 500 attempts. Sounds complicated, but the scale works just like raw yardage: the higher a player's DYAR, the better.

In this instance, a figure of about 400 DYAR per 500 attempts signifies a playoff-caliber quarterback. There are six players on Thigpen's top-20 comparables that have posted a figure that high, led by Trent Green. So, by my reasoning -- and this is the guts of this whole piece -- you could peg Thigpen's chances of developing into a legit (ie, playoff-caliber) starter at about 30 percent.

Those are actually pretty good odds in player-development terms. The percentages aren't nearly high enough -- and the sample isn't large enough -- to discourage the Chiefs from bringing in another quarterback in the offseason, be it through the draft, a trade or free agency. However, they do suggest that Thigpen has some upside.

Personally, I would be concerned about Thigpen's completion percentage, which ranked 30 out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in the past season. Among the many bits of information that have resulted from the research by the Football Outsiders/Pro Football Prospectus crew is this: Quarterbacks tend to be accurate or not. It's hard to "coach up" this aspect of a signal caller.

However, when I ran regressions of the different categories in my similarity score scheme against career value, two categories stood out as most important: DVOA and PAA (yards per pass attempt above or below the league average). In those two crucial categories, which track very closely, Thigpen ranked 48th and 49th out of the 110 players ranked. That's fairly encouraging -- he's in the top half. However, it underscores the overall notion that while Thigpen may have some real potential, no one, including the Chiefs, really know what they have in him at this point.

CONCLUSIONS

If the Chiefs bring in another QB, what are the odds that that player develops into a playoff-caliber performer? Fifty-fifty? Worse than that? That's why it doesn't make any sense to me that people approach this Thigpen/QB situation as an either/or proposition. The guy makes squat in salary-cap terms -- keep him and bring in someone else to compete.

Young quarterbacks are rarely a sure thing and there doesn't appear to be a sure thing in this draft. But there will be quality quarterbacks that emerge from this draft class. Whether or not the Chiefs use their first pick on a QB, they do need to take one on the first day of the draft. That player would then battle it out with Thigpen next summer, presumably with a veteran quarterback -- Damon Huard? -- waiting in the wings.

Tyler Thigpen may not pan out as a starting quarterback in the NFL. However, at this point, based on what we saw last season, you can't rule him out just yet.

THE LIST

I'll leave you with the full list of the 109 quarterback seasons used in my Thigpen analysis. The seasons are ranked by DYAR/500 attempts, however the left column lists the similarity ranking to Thigpen's 2008 season. In other words, the #52 ranking next to Peyton Manning's rookie season means that it was the 52nd most-similar season in this sample to Thigpen's 2008 season.

[Full list in a table at the link above]

[Reerun_KC]

Originally Posted by Extra Point

You're full of it. The piss-poor playcalling over the last four years, as a result of the the holes in our O-line, and inability to coach up the O-line, haven't clouded your vision, just made you blind.

Blind to what?

The Fact that Huard Quit on his team? Or his uncanty ability to fold under the slightest of pressure?

If you think Huard is an assest, then you shouldnt be questioning peoples vision...

[Extra Point]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Blind to what?

The Fact that Huard Quit on his team? Or his uncanty ability to fold under the slightest of pressure?

If you think Huard is an assest, then you shouldnt be questioning peoples vision...

Remember the shouting match that Huard had with the sideline in the 07-08 season? I don't think that's quitting. He had it out with Father Time, and with Solari. Let's face it: that season was nothing but Herm pussy-footing and trying to get along with his immediate boss, a politically corrupt asshole.

Huard needs to call it quits, no question. But after having QB'd in this league for as long as he has, and with his knowledge from as many teams for which he played, he'd make a decent QB coach.

And no, I don't think Huard is an assest.

[cdcox]

I read the article and his top-side comparables are Donnovan McNabb and Trent Green. First of all, he doesn't have the physical tools or draft status that Donnovan McNabb does so I really discount that. That leaves Trent Green. There were 8 comparable QBs. A 1 in 8 chance to develop into Trent Green? Wooo HOOO.

Those aren't the kind of odds you want to wager a franchise on. Keep him around, but he should be a distant, distant plan B. If you bet on him, you're nuts.

[Hammock Parties]

Using statistics to compare quarterbacks is a terrible idea.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I read the article and his top-side comparables are Donnovan McNabb and Trent Green. First of all, he doesn't have the physical tools or draft status that Donnovan McNabb does so I really discount that. That leaves Trent Green. There were 8 comparable QBs. A 1 in 8 chance to develop into Trent Green? Wooo HOOO.

Those aren't the kind of odds you want to wager a franchise on. Keep him around, but he should be a distant, distant plan B. If you bet on him, you're nuts.

Go look at top 5 QB picks since the merger. Odds look alot better.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Mecca

54% is horrendously bad when you factor in the offense that was being run for him is predicated on easy completions...

Yes, but Big Ben, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco's first starts ran an offense predicated on using the run game to force 8 guys in the box to force easier completions too. I realize that the spread is an easier offense for a QB to run, but I would argue that the NFL version of the spread is harder for a young QB to run than an offense that is unapologetically "run first."

[Extra Point]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

... I would argue that the NFL version of the spread is harder for a young QB to run than an offense that is unapologetically "run first."

Harder for a RB to accel, given the hand-off is way behind the LOS. D-line reads the play easier, letting the LBs and DBs read and cover better.

[smittysbar]

If Croyle is back next year, he would beat out Thigpen. He can't stay healthy. They have to either draft or find a QB for 09.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Mecca

54% is horrendously bad when you factor in the offense that was being run for him is predicated on easy completions...

As opposed to the West Coast offense or a run heavy play action offense? The spread is predicated on giving him time behind a bad line and giving him a look at the defense out the gate. The throws aren't any easier.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I read the article and his top-side comparables are Donnovan McNabb and Trent Green. First of all, he doesn't have the physical tools or draft status that Donnovan McNabb does so I really discount that. That leaves Trent Green. There were 8 comparable QBs. A 1 in 8 chance to develop into Trent Green? Wooo HOOO.

Those aren't the kind of odds you want to wager a franchise on. Keep him around, but he should be a distant, distant plan B. If you bet on him, you're nuts.

Who says we should wager the franchise on Thigpen? I have never read on epost that definitively says that. I have read where peoepl are not convinced we take a QB at #3 this year. This team has a lot of issues. I don't think that's a ridiculous thought.

I am glad Piolo is running this team rather than the narrow minded assholes around here who will bitch for years if we do take a QB at 3 and he ends up sucking after bitching all offseason that we have to draft a QB at 3.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Who says we should wager the franchise on Thigpen? I have never read on epost that definitively says that. I have read where peoepl are not convinced we take a QB at #3 this year. This team has a lot of issues. I don't think that's a ridiculous thought.

I am glad Piolo is running this team rather than the narrow minded assholes around here who will bitch for years if we do take a QB at 3 and he ends up sucking after bitching all offseason that we have to draft a QB at 3.

1. It is very rare to have a draft pick high enough to have a shot at a QB who is identified before the draft to have this much potential. We may not get the opportunity to take a QB with this much talent again for a long time. If not now, when?

2. This narrow minded asshole has never even bitched about taking Ryan Sims. He looked like the right pick at the time. He wasn't. There are going to be some busts in the NFL. I did bitch about Herm because I didn't want him in the first place. Some people on here change their opinions more often than their underwear. That's not me.

[rad]

Originally Posted by smittysbar

If Croyle is back next year, he would beat out Thigpen. He can't stay healthy. They have to either draft or find a QB for 09.

Who's "Croyle"

Don't forget, we have Quinn Gray. Who knows what kind of mad skillz he'll be able to exzibit ona tha foozball field!!!11holler!!!

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by cdcox

1. It is very rare to have a draft pick high enough to have a shot at a QB who is identified before the draft to have this much potential. We may not get the opportunity to take a QB with this much talent again for a long time. If not now, when?

2. This narrow minded asshole has never even bitched about taking Ryan Sims. He looked like the right pick at the time. He wasn't. There are going to be some busts in the NFL. I did bitch about Herm because I didn't want him in the first place. Some people on here change their opinions more often than their underwear. That's not me.

I wasn't specifically referring to you. I also am not in the camp that the top 2 QB's will be the quote " franchise QB" everyone is screaming about. It has been stated by Kyper and other draft experts that neither of the guys are close to Matt Ryan.

Look at it this way, if we didn't have such a question at QB, lets say we had Green from 5 years ago, and we had the #3 pick, would you be even slightly excited about Sanchez or Bradford at #3?

It's like your car breaks down and you go to the car lot and buy an overpriced car made by a company you have little knowledge of because well, I need a car and dammit I am going to buy one of the first ones I see or else I may never see another car again and then I'm stuck walking the rest of my life.

I believe the need for a "franchise QB" has caused their potential to be greatly exaggerated.

JMO

[King_Chief_Fan]

Originally Posted by smittysbar

If Croyle is back next year, he would beat out Thigpen. He can't stay healthy. They have to either draft or find a QB for 09.

smitty, you can't be serious. Croyle couldn't beat you for the QB position.
He showed nothing in his abilities and as you say, he can't stay healthy. You have to figure the can't stay healthy as part of the equation.

You are absolutely correct about drafting or finding a new QB.

[smittysbar]

Originally Posted by King_Chief_Fan

smitty, you can't be serious. Croyle couldn't beat you for the QB position.
He showed nothing in his abilities and as you say, he can't stay healthy. You have to figure the can't stay healthy as part of the equation.

You are absolutely correct about drafting or finding a new QB.

Factoring in the staying healthy, he would lose, but if you are just going on QB performance during TC between the two, it isn't close. I have watched them both in TC.......but Brodie ended up having the body of a glass jar