Peyton vs. Perfection (Denver vs KC breakdown) MMQB

[Quesadilla Joe]

It's the Game Of The Year so far: the prolific Denver Broncos vs. the stingy Kansas City Chiefs. Can Peyton Manning and company hand K.C. its first loss?

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/11/14/denver...eyton-manning/


This AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs is as good as it gets for football in November. No division rivals have ever squared off with fewer than two losses between them so late in the season. The Broncos (8-1) are scoring an obscene 41.2 points per game, by far the best in the NFL. The Chiefs (9-0) are giving up just 12.3 points per contest, also a league best. As Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton once taught us, something’s gotta give.

Broncos offense vs. Chiefs defense

1. Pressuring Peyton

A hot topic right now is Peyton Manning’s protection. It hasn’t been great in recent weeks, which is to be somewhat expected given that anchor Ryan Clady (IR) has been replaced by Chris Clark. The 28-year-old undrafted journeyman has given up a few critical blind-side hits, though he’s not the only culprit on this struggling line. Right tackle Orlando Franklin also has been caught flat-footed a few times. Manning, with precise pocket movement and rapid progression-read ability, is generally able to overcome shoddy protection. But two bum ankles—plus copious bumps and bruises on his 37-year-old-body—make eluding pressure a taller order these days.

The Chiefs know how to apply pressure. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston give defensive coordinator Bob Sutton the rare privilege of scheming with dynamic rushers from both edges. One of the two almost always faces one-on-one pass blocking. Both might see it frequently at the same time on Sunday night, as Manning prefers to go with a minimum five-man protection in order to have five eligible receivers at his disposal. (This is one reason why running back Knowshon Moreno catches so many short passes.)

Kansas City has been one of the most complex and successful blitzing teams in the NFL this season, particularly on 3rd-and-long when Sutton loves to play dime and send speedy corners and safeties after the quarterback. Though a sizeable chunk of Kansas City’s league-leading 36 sacks have come out of complex pressure packages, don’t expect Sutton to use a lot of them against the Broncos. Most defensive coordinators refrain from blitzing Manning. The Chargers had some success with it, but they only called for pressure in the second half after it became apparent that their defensive backs could not compete with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Kansas City’s defensive backs can challenge those receivers.

2. The Man-to-Man Matchups

The closest any defense has come to slowing Denver was Indianapolis’s, when cornerbacks Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler stymied Manning’s receivers for most of the first three quarters in Week 7. (Injuries to Davis and Butler changed Indy’s fortunes down the stretch.) The Broncos know how to beat man coverage—they’ve mastered barely legal pick plays and intertwined crossing patterns—but they have yet to face a man-coverage defense as sturdy as the Chiefs’. At the same time, Kansas City hasn’t faced an offense with these types of weapons. The following individual matchups will likely determine the outcome of the game:

Outside: CBs Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper vs. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker

Smith is lanky and physical, though he’s been a bit shaky as of late. (Receiver Stevie Johnson was right when he said that Smith’s 98-yard pick-six against Buffalo was “lucky.” Smith was in position to make that interception only because Johnson had juked him so far sideways off the line of scrimmage.) When Smith plays with discipline, he’s one of the best boundary defenders in the game. But if he gets antsy against double moves—something Thomas and Decker perform extremely well—he could wind up in trouble.

On the other side, Cooper, a seventh-round pick of the Niners this past spring, is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. He has an innate sense for playing both the ball and the receiver in isolated coverage against vertical routes on the outside. He also has good closing quickness when working back to the ball, especially for someone who is 6-2. For all of Cooper’s merits, don’t be surprised if Manning still tests him early. The young corner did get beat twice due to missteps in his press-jam technique in Kansas City’s last game.

Inside: CB Brandon Flowers vs. slot receiver Wes Welker

Since Week 5, Flowers, one of the NFL’s best boundary corners, has been playing the slot in nickel and dime. So far, the results have been stellar. Flowers is a surprisingly good blitzer, and more importantly, he knows how to apply his physicality in the wider spaces that come with playing inside. Most corners, even elite ones, can’t do that. We’ll find out on Sunday whether Flowers really is a slot aficionado. He’s yet to face an inside receiver of Welker’s caliber.

Inside: SS Eric Berry vs. TE Julius Thomas

Berry has transformed from a liability to an asset covering tight ends—though he hasn’t been severely tested except for when he controlled Jason Witten one-on-one in Week 2. The Broncos have the most dynamic tight end in the AFC not named Rob Gronkowski. And their system does a good job getting Thomas open by design.


3. Building Offense

Contrary to popular belief, the Broncos don’t do many complicated things offensively. Instead, they do many simple things really well. One is called “building offense,” meaning they use certain plays early in the game to set up other plays later in the game. Defenders think they’re spotting something familiar, but they’re actually being set up to be exploited. The good thing about being a man-based defense (like the Chiefs) is you’re a less susceptible to this sort of deception because coverage defenders don’t see the ball or route designs to begin with; their focus is solely on their man.

This doesn’t mean the Broncos won’t try to build offense. Instead of doing it with a combination of two or three different routes, they’ll do it on a more individualized basis. We saw a great example of this with Demaryius Thomas scoring two touchdowns at San Diego.





Kansas City’s cornerbacks must concentrate on getting stops, not interceptions. If they start cheating against Denver’s routes, they’ll get burned by a twist.


Chiefs offense vs. Broncos defense

There’s a perception that Denver’s defense is iffy, maybe even porous. That’s only because its two bad performances happened to coincide with the team’s two most-watched games: Week 5 at Dallas, and Week 7 at Indy. Take out those contests and this group is allowing a respectable 21.6 points per game.

The Chiefs lack the same offensive firepower that the Cowboys or Colts have. Their system hinges on Jamaal Charles being able to turn the outside corner in the ground game, and converting a few screens into first downs. Their passing game is limited, mainly because Alex Smith is committed to doing whatever it takes to not lose games. So far he’s been successful in this regard, but in order for the undefeated Chiefs to be genuine Super Bowl contenders, he at some point will have to actually make plays to win a game. This doesn’t mean making a gutsy play late in the fourth quarter; it means having the fortitude to consistently take advantage of big-play opportunities.

Smith is nowhere close to doing that right now. The TV camera angles that get beamed into living rooms across the country might show Smith not throwing interceptions. What those camera angles don’t show, however, is him missing wide-open receivers at the intermediate levels. They also don’t show him abandoning plays before receivers have finished their routes. We can see this, though, thanks to the All-22 film.






As this game probably will prove, Kansas City’s defense can’t keep holding opponents to under 20 points while also creating points of its own each week. Kansas City’s offense (i.e. Smith) will have to get sharper.

[Hammock Parties]

Here's the last 15 Super Bowl Champions and where they ranked in yards per completion:

Flacco #11
Eli #3
Rodgers #4
Brees #9
Roethlisberger #11
Eli #18
Peyton #8
Roethlisberger #1
Brady #5
Brady #17
Johnson #20
Brady #23
Dilfer #24
Warner #3
Elway #4

Alex has to make a quantum leap next year (it's not happening this year). Period. Especially given the trend over the last 10 years. He needs to at least get to an average YPC.

Throw the ball down the field. It wins games.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Jinx comment...

Ball has had all of 21 carries since week 5, including 0 vs the Colts - a game where points and turnovers really mattered. I would hope that he isn't dropping the ball when he's carried it 1, 3, 0, 12 and 5 times over the last 5 games.

He didn't have fumbling issues in college. He just wasn't used to securing the ball early in his carry, at Wisconsin he could make it 5 yards before he was touched once.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Von Dumbass

He didn't have fumbling issues in college. He just wasn't used to securing the ball early in his carry, at Wisconsin he could make it 5 yards before he was touched once.

Whatever. Dude sucks anyway. He's averaging like 3 YPC.

[Mile High Mania]

Moreno ... since the Dallas game is averaging 15 carries and almost 6 receptions a game - with 6 total TDs in that stretch. It pains me to say it, but he has played well. I still don't trust him though.

Moreno has about 257 fewer yards on 57 less touches with 1 more TD than Charles on the season, and considering Moreno's history, that's a pleasant surprise.

123 carries / 521 yds / 8 TD (55% of total team rushing yds)
37 rec / 336 yards / 1 TD (10% of total team receiving yds)

170 carries / 725 yards / 6 TD (68% of total team rushing yds)
47 rec / 389 yards / 2 TD (20% of total team receiving yds)

Both are avg about 4.2 per rush and Moreno has about a yard more per reception. Lots of ways to poke at the numbers, but Denver's #1 priority on defense is to focus in on and contain Charles. It's not easy by any means, but it can be done.

Charles has 3 games where he's rushed for over 90 yards (only 1 over 100). And, as a receiver, he has 3 games over 50 yds receiving.

In 8 games, Charles has combined for over 100 total yards - he's the offense, bottom line... stop him and you can defeat the Chiefs in a boring low scoring game.

[MileHighFish]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Whatever. Dude sucks anyway. He's averaging like 3 YPC.

Still way too early to throw the towel in on Ball imo. He's a rookie and will continue to learn and adjust to the speed of NFL defenses. Granted he hasn't had a substantial amount of carries to say he has made the necessary corrections but only time will tell. How many Chief fans would have thought that Poe would be the beast he has been this year, based off last year's performance?

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Von Dumbass

He didn't have fumbling issues in college. He just wasn't used to securing the ball early in his carry, at Wisconsin he could make it 5 yards before he was touched once.

Who cares about college? Totally different ballgame and the NFL sidelines are littered with guys that were once phenoms but now can't compete at a starting level.

[MileHighFish]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Moreno has about 257 fewer yards on 57 less touches with 1 more TD than Charles on the season, and considering Moreno's history, that's a pleasant surprise.

Not to mention, Charles is KC's main offensive weapon...

[MileHighFish]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Who cares about college? Totally different ballgame and the NFL sidelines are littered with guys that were once phenoms but now can't compete at a starting level.

Agreed. Like Ball but really, really wish Denver would have selected Lacy.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Von Dumbass

He didn't have fumbling issues in college. He just wasn't used to securing the ball early in his carry, at Wisconsin he could make it 5 yards before he was touched once.

I'm sure you watched a TON of Badger football, right?

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by MileHighFish

Still way too early to throw the towel in on Ball imo. He's a rookie and will continue to learn and adjust to the speed of NFL defenses. Granted he hasn't had a substantial amount of carries to say he has made the necessary corrections but only time will tell. How many Chief fans would have thought that Poe would be the beast he has been this year, based off last year's performance?

I'm not saying he'll always sucks; I'm just saying he's not scaring anybody but you guys right now.

Originally Posted by MileHighFish

Not to mention, Charles is KC's main offensive weapon...

.. Which makes it a lot easier to key on him. Moreno is about the 6th worry a team is going to have when facing the Broncos. He has more TDs because he plays on a much, much, much, much more prolific offense and that's the only reason.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by SNR

I'm sure you watched a TON of Badger football, right?

Likely just a quick stat search.

Hell, if we were going by college production - both Hillman and Ball should be an unbelievable duo based on their last few college seasons, hell 2011 was awesome for both. But, it's not college.

[ThaVirus]

Not only have Hillman and Ball has ball security issues, they can't be trusted in pass protection and aren't as good of hands out of the backfield. For as suck ass as Moreno is, he's elevated his play a bit this season. He still sucks but at least he's complete.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

Here's the last 15 Super Bowl Champions and where they ranked in yards per completion:

Flacco #11
Eli #3
Rodgers #4
Brees #9
Roethlisberger #11
Eli #18
Peyton #8
Roethlisberger #1
Brady #5
Brady #17
Johnson #20
Brady #23
Dilfer #24
Warner #3
Elway #4

Alex has to make a quantum leap next year (it's not happening this year). Period. Especially given the trend over the last 10 years. He needs to at least get to an average YPC.

Throw the ball down the field. It wins games.

So over the last 15 years the average YPC for SB winners ranked 11th and you believe that is the dispositive figure? That's the one that determines championships?

Let's look at the same list by YPA rather than YPC:

Elway - #5
Warner - #1
Dilfer - #26
Brady - #12
Johnson - #5
Brady - #8
Brady - #9
Ben - #1
Peyton - #4
Eli - #26
Ben - #17
Brees - #3
Rodgers - #2
Eli - #4
Flacco - #14

The average rank for SB winners by Yards per attempt? 9th.

So if anything, being ranked highly by YPA is even more important in determining who a SB winner is.

No, "THROW IT DEEP!!!!!" is not 'what wins games'. There are a myriad of ways to win games in this league and efficient passing that yields a high YPA is equally effective.

The problem isn't that Smith's not bombing away. The problem is he's not making the 10-12 yard throws that will keep drives alive and allow Reid to run the offense he wants to run.

Smith's nature fits Reid's plan fairly well. However, this bailing out of the pocket bullshit he's doing does not.

[ThaVirus]

Aren't Smith's YPC and YPA both abysmal?

[Hammock Parties]

Alex is equally pathetic in YPA so I'm not sure what your point is.

We need a more productive passing game, by a large margin.

And I am not talking about deep balls. Alex needs to hit those 15-25-yard throws consistently for us to have a chance.