Will Andy Reid break the all-time career record for wins as a head coach?

[RealSNR]

The Don Shula thread got me thinking about this. Andy Reid is 125 wins behind tying Shula if you count the playoffs. RunKC mentioned in that thread the possibility that Andy would coach for another decade since he has Patrick Mahomes as his QB, so he doesn't have to spend sleepless nights figuring out how to win games with AJ Feeley as his QB.

"Andy's really fat! No way! He's gonna die!" Are you sure about that? That fat man has lasted this long as an NFL head coach and has yet to miss a single NFL game because of a health issue, fat and all. It's a super stressful job and the guy still insanely energetic. So let's throw that argument away and assume he does coach for another decade. Is that a realistic mark for him to break the record if he has Patrick Mahomes as his QB all of those years? He's 126 wins away from breaking Shula's record, and he's 62. Usually you would look at that task and go, "More than 12 wins per season for 10 straight seasons? Awfully tall task."

Well, not so fast. He gets a 17 game season for 8 or 9 of those years. Then you get the playoffs with Mahomes as your QB. And in any given year in which he comes in under the required yearly average for wins in the regular season, he'll most likely be at a 2 seed or worse, which in the new playoff structure gives him an opportunity to rack up an extra win against a theoretically easier playoff opponent.

So he DOES need to average 12.5 wins a year, but if he gets close to that number every season, the years in which he outright dominates should balance out the seasons where he doesn't hit the 12.5 wins mark.

He needs to do a lot better than his current career win percentage of .610 from here on out, but he's Andy Reid, and he's attempting this task with Patrick Mahomes, not McNabb, Garcia, Feeley, Vick, or Alex.

However, he's got one more obstacle in his way: Bill Belichick, who is 43 wins away. A couple of years ago I would have said, "He's going to shatter that." But once again, not so fast. George Halas and Marv Levy each hold the record for oldest NFL head coaches in history at 72. I know people are living longer and healthier these days, but I think I would apply that to someone like Pete Carroll. Bill Belichick? He just turned 68. And these days he probably tilts more towards the Andy Reid side of health than he does Pete Carroll. Additionally, he just handed the team over to some doofus named Garrett Shittem and didn't give him any kind of offensive support other than some extra TEs. I gather that they're going to be a run-first offense, but this is a little extreme. He might just wear out his welcome before those arbitrary 4 years he has to get to 43 wins and beyond.

Poll forthcoming

[Skyy God]

Artery blockage willing......

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

I'm hoping Andy don't get the Corona. he probably deals with high blood pressure and hopefully doesn't take an Ace inhibitor.

[Red Dawg]

Too old. He wont get there.

[Pablo]

He's gonna win 5 more Superbowls and hang it up. So that's like 2026.

[Basileus777]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Guys, I literally did all of the math for you in the OP.

Do you morons ****ing read? You don't have to break it down for us in every post.

"You do know that means he has to win 12 games a year, right?"

Yes, because that's what I said in the ****ing OP.

Your math doesn't make it look remotely possible though. Chiefs aren't going to win like that for a decade and there is going to be a year or two where Mahomes or other key injuries just tank their record. It's not happening in 10 years. Like do people think we are going to be running out squads like we've had the last two years for the next decade? That's not how it works, not even the Patriots managed that. And the AFC West is going to recover, it won't be like the AFC East has been for Belichick.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Basileus777

Your math doesn't make it look remotely possible though. Chiefs aren't going to win like that for a decade and there is going to be a year or two where Mahomes or other key injuries just tank their record. It's not happening in 10 years. Like do people think we are going to be running out squads like we've had the last two years for the next decade? That's not how it works, not even the Patriots managed that. And the AFC West is going to recover, it won't be like the AFC East has been for Belichick.

Spoiler!

And the Patriots have averaged 12.47 wins per season since 2003, not including playoffs.

[Chieftain]

What makes Shula's record so impressive is that he did it while coaching during all those 14 game seasons and the strike seasons of '82 and '87. I hope Andy reaches at least 300 wins which is still an astonishing achievement. I hope Marty gets inducted in the Hall one day. That would make it 3 Chiefs coaches in the Hall of Fame.

[Pablo]

Originally Posted by Basileus777

Your math doesn't make it look remotely possible though. Chiefs aren't going to win like that for a decade and there is going to be a year or two where Mahomes or other key injuries just tank their record. It's not happening in 10 years. Like do people think we are going to be running out squads like we've had the last two years for the next decade? That's not how it works, not even the Patriots managed that. And the AFC West is going to recover, it won't be like the AFC East has been for Belichick.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Basileus777

Your math doesn't make it look remotely possible though. Chiefs aren't going to win like that for a decade and there is going to be a year or two where Mahomes or other key injuries just tank their record. It's not happening in 10 years. Like do people think we are going to be running out squads like we've had the last two years for the next decade? That's not how it works, not even the Patriots managed that. And the AFC West is going to recover, it won't be like the AFC East has been for Belichick.

It's quite obvious to most of us that we're going to win 15 games/season for the next 5 seasons, then at least 13 games/ season for the following 4 seasons, which is exactly enough to surpass Shula. Sheesh. Figure it out already.

[Chiefshrink]

He needs Pete Carroll(minus the gum) as his trainer IF he is going to make it another 10yrs.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by Basileus777

Your math doesn't make it look remotely possible though. Chiefs aren't going to win like that for a decade and there is going to be a year or two where Mahomes or other key injuries just tank their record. It's not happening in 10 years. Like do people think we are going to be running out squads like we've had the last two years for the next decade? That's not how it works, not even the Patriots managed that. And the AFC West is going to recover, it won't be like the AFC East has been for Belichick.

I don't know man the AFC West has been pretty crappy the last 20yrs except for one team or another dominating the division most of that time. The Patriots were in 9 SBs(6-3) in the last 20yrs and that's just insane when you think about it. If Reid stays healthy along with Pat staying healthy, along with good drafts and the major injury gods staying away it could be done BUT that is asking A LOT !!

[rtmike]

Originally Posted by srvy

He is winded walking into press conferences. I know he isn't going to change but I wish he would for his sake get that weight off. I want him to coach Pat through his career.

I have an uncle who might have 200lbs. on Andy. My aunt has to push his ass up into their pick up from outside the cab if he goes anywhere. Luckily she's about 6'3", (can't play cb).
No one's ever expected him to live this long.

He's 69! Lol.

[KChiefs1]

Hopefully he makes 300 before he retires or dies.

[RealSNR]

Do some of you believe all fat people die in their 50s or something?

Some of them do. Know which ones especially do? The ones who exhibit minor health complications associated with carrying all that extra weight.

Know which guy hasn't exhibited minor health complications associated with carrying all that extra weight?

Andy Reid.

I'm not saying the guy is going to live to be 100, but when you're as psychotically active as he is, your body oftentimes "forgets" to get sick and have bad shit happen to it.

I don't know if he's going to coach until he's 72, but I'd put money down that he's not going to die before 72.