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03-03-2011, 08:58 PM | #1066 | |
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My tablet predicitions are based on current trends and logic not just wishful thinking... I never predicting anything regarding ipod... but quite a few of us did make a prediction regarding Android vs iPhone and guess what, it came true.. Android is 29% of the smartphone market and growing at a substantially faster rate of market share than iPhone. The iOS will not get completely marginalized like MACs (5-10%) but it will be somewhere in the 10-15% range. (20% if they get lucky) Most likely by 2014. Last edited by AustinChief; 03-03-2011 at 09:03 PM.. |
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03-03-2011, 09:05 PM | #1067 | |
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On a side note, this article compares Netflix and BB. I can't find more up to date info on a comparison... Is there outdated info about BB in this article, or is it still true? Because it seems very limited by comparison. http://www.fastcompany.com/1685179/a...vs-blockbuster |
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03-03-2011, 09:23 PM | #1068 | |
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Here is my view of the future in this space... iPods will fade away (except maybe the tiny workout models) as everyone moves to smartphones. For smartphones, Android will get up to around 50% market share with RIM at 15%(or RIM's highly customized version of Android.. something they may move to) and Windows at 15% with iOS at 15%.. 5% for a MISC category.. (like WebOS) For tablets it will basically be the same as above except swap WebOS and RIM. The only way I see this being WAY off is if Windows finally gets its shit together... so again, not likely. These are numbers I just pulled out of my ass, so I reserve the right to adjust these down the road... but you get the general idea of where I see the market heading. |
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03-03-2011, 11:52 PM | #1069 |
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For all the iPad shortcomings listed somewhere in the 1000+ posts here... Apple still rules the tablet market at close to 80%. Android is climbing, and that's a good thing. But with Apple's present market domination, it's going to roll over into considerable iPad2 sales. Familiarity will be a buying factor. I think most people will overlook the hardware differences. Most people have no clue about differences in Adroid OS versions and telling them that Honeycomb is going to be better won't mean shit to the average tablet buyer. iPad has been marketed down our throats. Xoom's Android tablet OS hasn't really been sold to the people at all.
But right now, Apple will sell plenty of iPad2 tablets for reasons listed above, while Android devices struggle to keep up. Thinner, prettier design and consistent user interface will outweigh hardware differences for enough people to sell millions of units.. Yeah for diversity, but Apple's marketing will ensure sales of iPad2 to market capacity. Android devices will slowly catch up and drive prices down while doing so. Which is good for both.
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03-04-2011, 12:33 AM | #1070 | |
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Let's look at the iPhone vs Android phones... the first "real" Android OS came out in April 2009.. that's less than 2 years ago... The iPhone had almost a full 2 year head start. Android has now passed iOS and is on the road to dominance. The same will happen with tablets and probably even faster... Since Android's first tablet OS is only a week old.. I imagine that it will take a full year to 18 months to catch up in terms of market share. THAT SAID, Android Tablets will be the far better product starting about two months from now... as old iPads wear out and get outdated... you'll see a number of users switching over, but the significant gains will be in new users to the tablet space... especially ones who are waiting for more affordable options. In summary, yes iPad has a head start and will maintain a lead in overall market share for awhile... but starting around Christmas I expect NEW tablets sales to shift in favor of Android based units... then it's just a matter of time. P.S. Apple has an even higher share than 80% if you are talking "true" tablets and not bastard netvertible tablets like mine. |
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03-04-2011, 12:38 AM | #1071 |
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Android also came out on just about every carrier, as opposed to one for the iPhone.
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03-04-2011, 12:47 AM | #1072 | |
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Look at BestBuy and the amount of floorspace for different PC manufacturers vs the tiny corner with Macs... expect the same for tablets. |
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03-04-2011, 12:50 AM | #1073 | |
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For one, more people are shopping online now, so I'm not sure how important retail floor space is. Second, many, many people still associate tablets with the iPad, sort of like all tissues are Kleenex. Finally, Android tablets aren't marketed with 5% of the skill that Apple markets its products. |
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03-04-2011, 12:51 AM | #1074 |
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Not to get too far off topic.. but THIS is the next big thing in tablets/cell phones...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augmented_reality Gonna be some cool stuff coming out in a few years |
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03-04-2011, 12:56 AM | #1075 | |
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Yes, for NOW tablets are associated with the iPad.. that will change... it's already starting to. Apple will need that marketing expertise to stay viable AT ALL.. which they will (to the tune of 10-15% share) Lastly, better products at cheaper prices will win out... and Apple will not fit that bill... hell, they had a massive head start and yet Android already has a better OS that will only get better. But REALLY its the prices that will determine the market. The first wave of QUALITY $300 tablets will mark the major shift...I seriously doubt those will come from Apple. |
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03-04-2011, 12:59 AM | #1076 |
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I think you and Apple have different definitions of "viable." They probably consider "viable" as making a shitload of money, regardless of actual marketshare.
I hope iOS5 brings something great, because otherwise, I might have to seriously consider moving to an Android tablet. But I disagree with the better products at cheaper prices winning out. That was never true with better and cheaper MP3 players, so I don't know if it will hold true for other areas where Apple has since entered the arena. |
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03-04-2011, 04:26 AM | #1077 | |
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03-04-2011, 09:42 AM | #1078 | |
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Apple will sell 9-10M incremental Verizon iPhones in 2011, surpassing Android market share within the Verizon smartphone segment. However, Verizon will still not surpass 15% of the global smartphone segment by the end of 2011 even with the addition of iPhone (+50% YOY). Austin's iPhone vs. Android argument is not on an apples to apples basis simply because Apple's lucrative exclusive contracts with AT&T and now Verizon somewhat limits full market saturation. |
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03-04-2011, 10:09 AM | #1079 | |
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A very well done editorial. I think it highlights the very debate we see in this thread and beyond.
In this thread, we see the Xoom guys talking about CPU speed, RAM, 4G, etc., while the Apple guys don't really seem to care. The point is, Apple has simply moved on from that debate. They've left the room. Right or wrong, in their eyes, it's about user experience and not about flashy specs. Up to this point, they've been 100% right. Quote:
Last edited by The Rick; 03-04-2011 at 10:22 AM.. |
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03-04-2011, 10:20 AM | #1080 |
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It also has quite a bit to do with branding.
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