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01-05-2018, 09:00 AM | #616 |
I'm with the Banned
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01-05-2018, 10:18 AM | #617 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
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It was to dump this year's $9 million.
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01-05-2018, 10:20 AM | #618 |
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They're going to do the same thing with Hammel. Trade his $9 million 2018 salary, kick in $2 million for his 2019 buyout, save a net $7 million.
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01-05-2018, 10:22 AM | #619 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
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I know Royals fans don't like Soria, but NOBODY likes their middle of the pen relievers. They remember the bad outings and forget the clean ones. When you look at the term/$$ that relatively solid but by no means spectacular relievers are getting on the open market, a 1 yr/$9 million deal for Soria isn't that out of bounds. If he were a FA, he'd probably get no worse than 1/$6 million because he has handled the 9th and could again in a pinch. So if he's only $3 million overpriced, how the hell do you have to give up 5 years of solid, team controlled relief just to ditch him? I don't get that at all. I'd imagine that Dayton really likes what he sees in Oaks and thinks he can start, but Oaks arsenal looks like a 7th inning guy to me. {shrug} Not my circus and not my monkeys, but this one looks strange from an outsiders perspective.
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01-05-2018, 10:42 AM | #620 | |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
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It looks strange from the inside as well. Unless you're blinded by Soria hatred. I hope this is the only situation where we see a valuable asset attached for a pure salary dump. They can't afford to do something like that with Duffy. Any move of him, or Herrera, or Merrifield needs to be done to add minor league talent as a first priority. I'm fine with dumping Hammel to some team in the same situation as the Royals last year - looking for back end rotation depth to help you get into playoff position. Same with Moss. Just don't attach either of those guys to a valuable asset to get there. Oaks looks like an OK back end starter for a team that isn't trying to contend. Not much else there. Mejia looks like depth and nothing else to me.
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01-05-2018, 10:51 AM | #621 | |
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Dunno why people hate Hammel or Moss, they're fine. Every team needs those type of vets around, they aren't negative value. I also want Soler DH 500 PA but Moss can have the other 200 - assuming he's not at 1B all year |
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01-05-2018, 11:33 AM | #622 |
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I've always said I'm not a huge fan of players like Moss, but I think he was fine last year. We got exactly what we paid for. He's a low average power hitter, and that's what we got. His OPS was over .700 and he hit 22 homers despite less ABs than previous years. If we have him 500 ABs he'd probably hit 30 homers. Otherwise he's going to hit .225 and strike out a bunch. It was still a down year for him but when you're a .225 guy a slump will put you at .200 and that's what he did.
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01-05-2018, 11:44 AM | #623 | ||
Like I woke up in Wonderland..
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Maybe this fanbase notices it more because 2014/2015 success was based on doing all the small things right. Same with Soria - when you have 2-3 years of an absolutely unhittable bullpen, giving up a lead in the 7th is just something that is completely foreign.
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01-05-2018, 11:46 AM | #624 | |
War Eagle !!!
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I'd rather have one of the rule five guys in the rotation than Hammel. He does not have a future with the team. Same goes for Moss. He's gone after this year and Soler / Bonifacio needs the "at bats". |
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01-05-2018, 11:52 AM | #625 | |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
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Salary relief now is not worth sacrificing a good player like Duffy or Merrifield - who provide value on their own - AND reducing your prospect return. If the Royals trade Duffy, they need to maximize the prospect return. Dumping players just to unload their salary and attaching present value to it is a great way to lower payroll without improving your future outlook at all.
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01-05-2018, 11:57 AM | #626 |
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Soria averaged a WHIP of around 1.35 in his last two years here. While it isn’t awful, it is worse than average. He also followed a great bullpen and his WHIP seemed to be higher in any meaningul appearances.
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01-05-2018, 12:42 PM | #627 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
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On the season, Soria had a positive WPA for the Royals last year. Now at .86 that's not an incredible figure, but it's tied with Justin Wilson who the Cubs paid a ton to get. It's ahead of a guy like Brian Shaw who just parlayed his season into a monster deal and Delin Betances. It tells me that he was a solid pitcher last year. Now it doesn't speak to the argument that he got lucky; like I said, it's not predictive. But most of his predictive numbers tell the same story; good swinging strike rates, solid zone% (both better than Minor and Alexander) suggesting that he still hits the zone frequently and is missing enough bats to be successful. His K-BB% was top 50 among relievers last year. Both his FIP and xFIP (to address the suppressed HR rate) were very good. His GB rate improved as his FB rate also went way down (helping explain some of his HR fortune) which all led to a good SIERA. His velocity has actually recovered to his pre-surgery form; best of his career in fact. So his rearview mirror stats say he was a solid if unspectacular reliever last year. His predictive stats say that unless he suffers a skills decline he didn't show last year that he should easily be able to duplicate that performance if not improve on it somewhat. There are things to like in Soria's background noise so yeah, I'm with you here - this seems like a lot to give up just so you can get rid of a guy that's not really that overpaid to begin with. Surely they could've gotten a nothing prospect for him if they'd have sent $3 million over in the deal. Just a strange trade. I just don't see the desperate need to unload Soria. He'll suffer with some HR regression next year given his switch from KC to CHW's more homer-friendly park, but otherwise he actually got a little unlucky on batted balls and strand rates (especially the strand rate) and with even a little recovery there and neutral luck, he'll more than make up for a HR rate regression.
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01-05-2018, 12:50 PM | #628 |
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Soria's stats don't tell the whole story imo. For 2 years running he consistently threw meatballs right down the middle in a huge % of his highest leverage spots. Seriously - there is nothing you could count on more than Soria blowing a lead when you really really needed a win. 2 quick strikes, ball, ball, meatball.
I think coming back to his old team and not performing may have put too much pressure on him and got into his head. |
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01-05-2018, 12:54 PM | #629 |
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Wonder if there's a noticeable split between Soria's performance before he said to stop referring to him as the Mexicutioner and after.
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01-05-2018, 01:07 PM | #630 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
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If he was consistently blowing leads in high% situations, his WPA would be a mess. If he came into a bunch of 8th inning games with 2 run leads (what, an 80% likely win) and turned them into 1 or 2 run defecits, that would cripple his WPA. He did have some games like that and those dropped some nasty numbers on his WPA (we'll get to those later). If he did that often, he damn sure wouldn't have held a positive WPA on the season. Like I said - nobody likes their 7th/8th inning relievers because when they do their job it's just a 'ho hum' moment. But 48 times in 59 games, Joakim Soria left the mound with his team having higher odds of winning than they had when he entered. So more than 80% of the time he took the mound, he did his job, high leverage and low leverage included. But he had 4 REALLY tough outings in there (4/28, 5/29, 7/31 and 8/15), two of which were against divisional opponents - Min and Det, the other two were against recent playoff foes for KC - Bal and Oak. So those stand out something awful. And yeah, apart from a Cleveland moment, I have to imagine those are the 4 most memorable teams he could implode against. No, there's not a single stat that tells the whole story and I'm not arguing that there is. But what I am arguing is that the stats on aggregate absolutely do tell A story and that story is that of a relatively forgettable, slightly above average reliever. That's all Soria is. His numbers say that. His gamelogs say that. His stuff says that. Everything says that but your memory and frankly, we fans are not reliable narrators.
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