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Old 02-19-2019, 09:39 PM   #1
Great Expectations Great Expectations is offline
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The Padres are a few pitchers away from a World Series win. If the club house isn’t a complete dumpster fire, they should be one of the top 5 favorites to win it all next year.
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Old 02-19-2019, 09:43 PM   #2
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The Padres are a few pitchers away from a World Series win. If the club house isn’t a complete dumpster fire, they should be one of the top 5 favorites to win it all next year.
But it's San Diego, so nothing will go as planned and the team will play below expectations.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:22 PM   #3
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The Padres are a few pitchers away from a World Series win.
Yeah sure. If they’re Max Scherzer and Chris Sale.

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If the club house isn’t a complete dumpster fire, they should be one of the top 5 favorites to win it all next year.
????? They’re projected to win 79 (ZiPS) and 79.5 (Vegas) this year. They’re not even close. Do you mean 2020? They still won’t be close to top 5. Their prospects are all a ways off.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:32 PM   #4
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Yeah sure. If they’re Max Scherzer and Chris Sale.







????? They’re projected to win 79 (ZiPS) and 79.5 (Vegas) this year. They’re not even close. Do you mean 2020? They still won’t be close to top 5. Their prospects are all a ways off.

The first and best of them should start arriving this year.

Tatis, Jr
Urias (already debuted)
Francisco Mejia

All are MLB-ready or will be this season.

Their best pitchers are still two years out, but Chris Paddock could pop up this year and has pretty high upside.

2021 is probably when they really should start thinking about contending, unless they spend on some FA pitching or trade for some.
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Old 02-21-2019, 12:45 PM   #5
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Baseball Prospectus released its farm rankings today.

Royals checked in at ...

Drumroll please ...

16th. That’s an impressive leap up from 28th or 29th last year.

I tend to like BP more than BA or MLB’s guys because those latter systems focus more on near-MLB talent as part of their rankings and less on upside (ie they more highly value a guy with a 4 starter upside who is close to MLB and has a higher floor compared to a guy with a lower floor but the ability to be a really good 2/3 at his best).

For Royals prospect thoughts, Clint Scoles is doing great stuff - for free - at Royals Academy.

I’m still trying to find time to do some highlights of the system. I’ll try to include some draft profiles if people are interested in that.
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Old 02-21-2019, 12:50 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Baseball Prospectus released its farm rankings today.

Royals checked in at ...

Drumroll please ...

16th. That’s an impressive leap up from 28th or 29th last year.

I tend to like BP more than BA or MLB’s guys because those latter systems focus more on near-MLB talent as part of their rankings and less on upside (ie they more highly value a guy with a 4 starter upside who is close to MLB and has a higher floor compared to a guy with a lower floor but the ability to be a really good 2/3 at his best).

For Royals prospect thoughts, Clint Scoles is doing great stuff - for free - at Royals Academy.

I’m still trying to find time to do some highlights of the system. I’ll try to include some draft profiles if people are interested in that.
This. All of this.
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Old 02-21-2019, 02:04 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Baseball Prospectus released its farm rankings today.

Royals checked in at ...

Drumroll please ...

16th. That’s an impressive leap up from 28th or 29th last year.

I tend to like BP more than BA or MLB’s guys because those latter systems focus more on near-MLB talent as part of their rankings and less on upside (ie they more highly value a guy with a 4 starter upside who is close to MLB and has a higher floor compared to a guy with a lower floor but the ability to be a really good 2/3 at his best).

For Royals prospect thoughts, Clint Scoles is doing great stuff - for free - at Royals Academy.

I’m still trying to find time to do some highlights of the system. I’ll try to include some draft profiles if people are interested in that.
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Old 02-21-2019, 02:27 PM   #8
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I’ll plug Clint for a moment. He did great work at Baseball Prospectus KC and has a much better handle on these kids now than I do.

I just don’t have the time to watch minor league games, let alone travel to them, like I once did.

Still have a few guys on the inside I can exchange info with, but Clint’s scouting eye is sharper than mine at this point.

All I’ve had a chance to do recently is watch video on Erick Pena, the kid the Royals are going to sign on July 2 IFA day. I’ve watched about 200-300 swings of his now (combo of BP and game swings), and I see an AWFUL lot of Juan Soto and Oscar Taveras in his swing.

He’s a big (6-3) lefty with a smooth swing, great barrel control, and could project as a big-time power guy. He’s toolsy as you want a $3 million+ signee to be, but his swing is so natural, smooth, and controlled, I don’t think he has the extremely low floor of some of the Royals’ previous big spends (Marten Gasparjni, Elise Hernandez, even Matias).
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:10 PM   #9
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All I’ve had a chance to do recently is watch video on Erick Pena, the kid the Royals are going to sign on July 2 IFA day. I’ve watched about 200-300 swings of his now (combo of BP and game swings), and I see an AWFUL lot of Juan Soto and Oscar Taveras in his swing.

He’s a big (6-3) lefty with a smooth swing, great barrel control, and could project as a big-time power guy. He’s toolsy as you want a $3 million+ signee to be, but his swing is so natural, smooth, and controlled, I don’t think he has the extremely low floor of some of the Royals’ previous big spends (Marten Gasparjni, Elise Hernandez, even Matias).
He's only 16, right?
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Old 02-22-2019, 08:58 AM   #10
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I’ll plug Clint for a moment. He did great work at Baseball Prospectus KC and has a much better handle on these kids now than I do.
Great resource. Thanks for pointing it out. Hadn't heard of Royals Academy site, but learned several new things from reading...like I had no idea they're looking to give Isbel some 2B reps this year. Whit version 2.0 would be nice.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:19 PM   #11
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Old 02-22-2019, 11:22 AM   #12
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Who’s the best FA signee of all time? I suppose you could say Reggie Jackson way back when but I can’t prove it. Ricky Henderson a few diff places.


Answer: either Adrian Beltre (rangers) or Max Scherzer (natties). Max got a 7/210 deal and he’s already earned 214 on the field. So the final 3 years are free. Insane job, Max
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:24 PM   #13
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Who’s the best FA signee of all time? I suppose you could say Reggie Jackson way back when but I can’t prove it. Ricky Henderson a few diff places.


Answer: either Adrian Beltre (rangers) or Max Scherzer (natties). Max got a 7/210 deal and he’s already earned 214 on the field. So the final 3 years are free. Insane job, Max

Ones I would consider:

Vlad Guerrero to Anaheim
He produced 25 wins in 6 seasons with the Angels on a $70 million deal, and LA won a WS during this time period

Greg Maddux, Braves
The Braves’ dominance in the 90s was amped up by adding Maddux as a FA.

Randy Johnson, DBacks
3-4 Cy Young’s, a World Series win during his time with Arizona.

Barry Bonds, Giants
Steroid use aside, Bonds was a superstar for the Giants and every bit what was expected.

Ichiro, Mariners
He was amazing for the M’s
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:28 PM   #14
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Ichiro, Seahawks
He was amazing for the M’s
Get some sleep, Duncan.
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:30 PM   #15
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Get some sleep, Duncan.

:sobs uncontrollably:
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