Home Discord Chat
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > Nzoner's Game Room
Register FAQDonate Members List Calendar

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-27-2016, 11:23 AM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
Kind of a mod
 
DaFace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
Casino cash: $166899
Investing megathread extravaganza

A place to talk about investing stuff.

Last edited by DaFace; 02-19-2021 at 06:35 PM..
Posts: 52,511
DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 07:47 PM   #3136
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $934127
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistedChief View Post
Sorry, but that’s an entirely ridiculous analysis.

Term premium - or the amount investors are compensated for investing in longer maturity interest rates - is low. A portion of that is a function of the Fed’s large holdings of Treasury securities. But a larger portion is the fact that 30y German bonds are yielding -0.20% (exerting a global pull lower in yield) and a portion is a function of lower inflation expectations than we’ve faced in many, many decades. So it’s a lot easier

You’ll hear a lot about how the inverted yield curve is an indicator of a coming recession. And while that may be true, there are lots and lots of reasons why it could easily be giving a false positive in this environment given the much reduced term premium mentioned above (ie, inversion has a much lower bar) and a sort of self-fulfilling quality to it all as the Treasury rally tends to accelerate when it inverts because of its alleged meaning. I’d also mention that liquidity - that is, the ease with which one buys and sells - in Treasuries is abysmal right now (JPM released a paper today mentioning that it declined by a factor of 3 this month), and August is seasonally a month very favorable to a flattening of the yield curve.

In any case, if the Fed actually started selling Treasury securities as per the trader you saw on CNBC (I wanna LOL at that), equities would be down 10% tomorrow.

The Fed hasn’t been the problem here, no matter what Trump tells you.
First of all this has nothing to do with Trump so talk about idiotic analysis, you just said the most idiotic thing I've heard in a while. Secondly I don't disagree with anything you said save the part of excusing the Fed. Thirdly I agree that if the Fed started selling it would put pressure on equities but that was not the point this person was making. A Fed cut and a dump of 10 years would in fact right the curve. The fact it would impact equities negatively however is expected. You can LOL all you want but newsflash, just because you are in the business doesn't mean you are the only one in the business.
Posts: 129,747
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 07:48 PM   #3137
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $934127
Quote:
Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
Now you tell me!!!

Thanks a lot asshole!
Meh, keep using your EMAs of they work for you. But I am just saying when you hear the talking heads spattering about averages they are using SMAs.
Posts: 129,747
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 08:01 PM   #3138
TwistedChief TwistedChief is offline
Why so serious?
 
TwistedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Chicago
Casino cash: $580415
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
First of all this has nothing to do with Trump so talk about idiotic analysis, you just said the most idiotic thing I've heard in a while. Secondly I don't disagree with anything you said save the part of excusing the Fed. Thirdly I agree that if the Fed started selling it would put pressure on equities but that was not the point this person was making. A Fed cut and a dump of 10 years would in fact right the curve. The fact it would impact equities negatively however is expected. You can LOL all you want but newsflash, just because you are in the business doesn't mean you are the only one in the business.
If you think the inverted yield curve has nothing to do with Trump, you don’t know as much as you think you do about markets.

And further, what’s so great about an analysis (your words) that speak to actions the Fed can take to force the yield curve steeper that would actually increase the odds of a recession? The whole issue of an inverted yield curve is what people think it represents given that historically it often - but not always - presaged recession. If the Fed decided to torque the yield curve by itself, you’d just lose the signal while doing nothing to treat the disease. Correlation <> causation.
Posts: 12,753
TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
Thumbs Up 1 Thumbs Down 0     Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 08:08 PM   #3139
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $934127
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistedChief View Post
If you think the inverted yield curve has nothing to do with Trump, you don’t know as much as you think you do about markets.

And further, what’s so great about an analysis (your words) that speak to actions the Fed can take to force the yield curve steeper that would actually increase the odds of a recession? The whole issue of an inverted yield curve is what people think it represents given that historically it often - but not always - presaged recession. If the Fed decided to torque the yield curve by itself, you’d just lose the signal while doing nothing to treat the disease. Correlation <> causation.
You've said a lot of nothing. How has Trump inverted the yield curve? I have not heard one person claim that so you have the stage.
Posts: 129,747
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 08:43 PM   #3140
TwistedChief TwistedChief is offline
Why so serious?
 
TwistedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Chicago
Casino cash: $580415
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
You've said a lot of nothing. How has Trump inverted the yield curve? I have not heard one person claim that so you have the stage.
I don’t know whom you speak to. I worked at Goldman Sachs for a decade and was a managing director on the US Treasury Desk. Since then I’ve worked at a hedge fund as a portfolio manager. I can assure you that people I speak to on a daily basis think Trump is a prime reason the curve has inverted. And why? Simply, his trade policies have put a crimp in the global supply chain, increased uncertainty, and slowed global growth. If you want to go deeper, he crafted a stimulus package that was completely unnecessary (and in the end also far less effective) when the economy was at or near ‘full employment,’ which prompted the Fed to raise rates faster than they otherwise would’ve done. This did nothing to increase ‘trend growth’ or the supply side of the economy as had been promised.

I’m no fan of Trump and I realize I’m arguing with somewho would has a sig celebrating him, but this is my view as a market participant, not as someone who is politically biased.
Posts: 12,753
TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
Thumbs Up 3 Thumbs Down 0     Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2019, 05:08 AM   #3141
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $934127
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistedChief View Post
I don’t know whom you speak to. I worked at Goldman Sachs for a decade and was a managing director on the US Treasury Desk. Since then I’ve worked at a hedge fund as a portfolio manager. I can assure you that people I speak to on a daily basis think Trump is a prime reason the curve has inverted. And why? Simply, his trade policies have put a crimp in the global supply chain, increased uncertainty, and slowed global growth. If you want to go deeper, he crafted a stimulus package that was completely unnecessary (and in the end also far less effective) when the economy was at or near ‘full employment,’ which prompted the Fed to raise rates faster than they otherwise would’ve done. This did nothing to increase ‘trend growth’ or the supply side of the economy as had been promised.

I’m no fan of Trump and I realize I’m arguing with somewho would has a sig celebrating him, but this is my view as a market participant, not as someone who is politically biased.
I've heard all that before from a few and I call bullshit. That just sounds like partisan bullshit. Your opinion on his "stimulus policy" is just that. Your political bias was injected several posts back and again at the end of your post here. The Fed raised too far, too fast and it had little to do with any tax cuts or trade policies. AS usual, the Fed ****ed up and they have a history of doing so. Not to mention the trillions of $'s in negative yields globally that existed before Trump. Europe has been a shit hole for a long time. I think in a previous post you eluded to negative rates being a reason for inversion and you should stick more to that than a President wielding power to invert the yield curve.

We'll just have to agree to disagree here as you are apparently unable to have a debate on the matter without accusing those who may disagree with you of doing it out of political bias. Then again you blasted me the night all the Reek news broke claiming I was ignoring all this "evidence" and just rushing to defend Reek because I said from the off that something about the story was not right. And we saw how that worked out.

Clearly you're a professional in the game but there are lots of professionals in the game. Many with differing opinions than yours.

Last edited by petegz28; 08-15-2019 at 05:36 AM..
Posts: 129,747
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2019, 06:04 AM   #3142
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
Fish are scared of me
 
Hog's Gone Fishin's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2001
Casino cash: $-29523
As much as I like Trump for standing up for America. I have to tell you my daughters economics professor says Trump is a complete idiot.
Posts: 40,647
Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.
Thumbs Up 2 Thumbs Down 0     Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2019, 06:56 AM   #3143
scho63 scho63 is offline
Politically Incorrect
 
scho63's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Casino cash: $911110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin View Post
As much as I like Trump for standing up for America. I have to tell you my daughters economics professor says Trump is a complete idiot.
And you are surprised how.......???
__________________
"The only difference between sex for free and sex for money is that sex for free costs you a WHOLE LOT more!" ~Redd Foxx~


2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2024 Adopt a Chief - Clark Hunt and Brett Veach
"The men who drafted Patrick Mahomes"


Posts: 52,662
scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2019, 07:01 AM   #3144
scho63 scho63 is offline
Politically Incorrect
 
scho63's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Casino cash: $911110
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistedChief View Post
I don’t know whom you speak to. I worked at Goldman Sachs for a decade and was a managing director on the US Treasury Desk. Since then I’ve worked at a hedge fund as a portfolio manager. I can assure you that people I speak to on a daily basis think Trump is a prime reason the curve has inverted. And why? Simply, his trade policies have put a crimp in the global supply chain, increased uncertainty, and slowed global growth. If you want to go deeper, he crafted a stimulus package that was completely unnecessary (and in the end also far less effective) when the economy was at or near ‘full employment,’ which prompted the Fed to raise rates faster than they otherwise would’ve done. This did nothing to increase ‘trend growth’ or the supply side of the economy as had been promised.

I’m no fan of Trump and I realize I’m arguing with somewho would has a sig celebrating him, but this is my view as a market participant, not as someone who is politically biased.


Great post and I have a single question:

What is the perception of the trade war with China as it pertains to China's complete theft of our intellectual property, the manipulation of the currency and the complete trade imbalance?
__________________
"The only difference between sex for free and sex for money is that sex for free costs you a WHOLE LOT more!" ~Redd Foxx~


2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2024 Adopt a Chief - Clark Hunt and Brett Veach
"The men who drafted Patrick Mahomes"


Posts: 52,662
scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2019, 07:13 AM   #3145
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
Fish are scared of me
 
Hog's Gone Fishin's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2001
Casino cash: $-29523
Quote:
Originally Posted by scho63 View Post
And you are surprised how.......???
Well, I actually know the professor on a personal level. He's Republican and a Vietnam vet. So, I must say the comments he made did surprise me somewhat.
Posts: 40,647
Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Hog's Gone Fishin is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2019, 07:22 AM   #3146
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $934127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin View Post
Well, I actually know the professor on a personal level. He's Republican and a Vietnam vet. So, I must say the comments he made did surprise me somewhat.
Not going to get political but anyone, regardless of whom or what party, that wins a Presidential election when literally all the odds are overwhelmingly against them is hardly an "idiot".
Posts: 129,747
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2019, 07:35 AM   #3147
MahiMike MahiMike is offline
He's Mahomie!
 
MahiMike's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Jax, FL
Casino cash: $10023443
Quote:
Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
People have said we have hit a bubble since 2017! Timing the market correctly, while dumping that cash to gold isn't really a good plan for anyone. Unless you have that crystal ball on timing the market............
Gold is up 30 pct in the last year. Stocks 3 pct. Countries around the globe are stockpiling in millions of pounds. They know the central banks are out of options. Everyone should have at least 10 pct in gold.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Screenshot_20190814-212408.jpg
Views:	605
Size:	49.7 KB
ID:	118744  
__________________
99.9%
Posts: 17,387
MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.MahiMike is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2019, 08:06 AM   #3148
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $934127
Quote:
Originally Posted by MahiMike View Post
Gold is up 30 pct in the last year. Stocks 3 pct. Countries around the globe are stockpiling in millions of pounds. They know the central banks are out of options. Everyone should have at least 10 pct in gold.
I've never bought into that theory at all. First of all most people don't buy gold, they buy gold stocks. Secondly it's a brief hedge that fails to last. So unless you are good at timing you might as well buy the stocks that are down and benefit in the long run. If you want to trade gold then trade it. Otherwise the "you should always have 10% in gold" is a bunk philosophy in my opinion.

Finally, say you do buy physical gold. Take that to any retail store and let me know of they take it instead of $'s.
Posts: 129,747
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
Thumbs Up 2 Thumbs Down 0     Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2019, 08:15 AM   #3149
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $934127
Take it for what it's worth as you should with any Wall St. Pro but I have always liked Mohamed. I am sure TwistedChieft knows him and or hates him for whatever reason...

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/08/1...-el-erian.html

Problem isn't the economy, it's the markets' sensitivity, says Allianz's El-Erian from CNBC.

Posts: 129,747
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2019, 09:36 AM   #3150
TwistedChief TwistedChief is offline
Why so serious?
 
TwistedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Chicago
Casino cash: $580415
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Take it for what it's worth as you should with any Wall St. Pro but I have always liked Mohamed. I am sure TwistedChieft knows him and or hates him for whatever reason...
LOL. Well, I have met him before while visiting Pimco's offices, but his explanation basically parallels mine in that politics (read: Trump's trade fancies amongst others) are polluting markets. So now you have two people who are telling you that Trump is in large part responsible for the inversion of the yield curve. Hope you listen to El-Erian as he is indeed very smart and thoughtful.
Posts: 12,753
TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.TwistedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:05 PM.


This is a test for a client's site.
Fort Worth Texas Process Servers
Covering Arlington, Fort Worth, Grand Prairie and surrounding communities.
Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Texas.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.