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11-15-2019, 11:12 AM | #4141 | |||
Rabbi Goldmann
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Every time I saw him i said the same thing “Why is Danny Duffy more successful when they’re the same damn guy?” Honestly I’d lay even odds on who produces more WAR the next 3 years and Duffy makes 15/per |
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11-15-2019, 11:21 AM | #4142 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
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He doesn't get enough movement on his fastball to turn it into a worm-burner and he doesn't have a big enough gap between his fastball/change (or enough drop on the change) to get guys in a rocking chair with their timing. If he had a more dynamic fastball or better changeup command, that would be one thing. But both of those pitches are just okay - he needs the third offering to actually matter. And frankly, if your fastball/changeup combination is only average, that 3rd offering had better be pretty damn good as a lefty. Like Duncan said - he kinda lost his octane early in his career. At that point you'd better have the kitchen sink to throw at them. A relatively straight 92 mph fastball paired with an 8 mph gap and nominal gloveside run on your change makes you a batting practice pitcher unless you have Tom Glavine's command (Montgomery doesn't), Zack Britton's turbo sinker (Montgomery doesn't) or a 3rd pitch that you can count on. Montgomery needs the latter to be a true asset. As for Duffy - they weren't the same guy when Duffy got his deal. Duffy threw 94 and unlike many lefties was able to bury that 94 inside on righties. If a lefty can do that, he can survive fastball changeup. Additionally, Duffy has a credible major league slider. Duffy's just about always maintained a 10 mph gap between his fastball and change and that's the magic number, IMO. Do that and you can live there - do less than that and there's just not quite enough separation. Now combine that 10 mph gap with a delivery that allows him to bust RHs inside before they can get the bat out in front of the plate and drive it (the problem most LHs face trying to pitch inside to righties) and you have a damn tough lefty to deal with. Montgomery's never had those bullets so he's had to have a better pitch mix. If he doesn't, he's shitty.
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"If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags." |
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11-15-2019, 11:48 AM | #4143 | |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
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That might be true regarding his value - though setting the costs of his salary added some back due to the predictability and likely discount on arbitration years - but I still don’t think it affects my decision to pull the trigger or not. If what I’m looking at back is 2-3 guys whose 80 percent outcome is bench player or worse, just don’t see the incentive. Yeah, it means I have fewer lotto tickets in my system and yes it means Merrifield’s production ends up wasted. But It is too close to “making the best bad deal you can because you want to make a deal no matter what” for me.
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"You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra |
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11-15-2019, 12:02 PM | #4144 |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
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Re: Merrifield’s speed, we’ll see how he trends this year. I’m not ready to chalk all of his baserunning/SB decrease up to declining speed.
Looking at his stat cast page and sprint speed, he was at 28.6 this year (which is the same as Ozzie Albies, Javy Baez, Jose Altuve, and Ramel Tapia, guys who run really well, and better than many speed guys, including Jarrod Dyson, Ramon Laureano). That’s down from a peak of 29.2 in 2017 (2 percent). He bounced from 29-29.2-29 from 16-18 as well. That’s not a significant decrease, really. He’s still a fast, fast dude. There are offer factors that contributed to his drop in SB. He had more XBH hits this year. He was on base a little less. He had better run producers behind him in Dozier and Soler. He also probably saw a lot more fastballs when on base with Nicky Lopez hitting than he did the year before with Adaleberto Mondesi hitting 2nd. It also should be mentioned that playing Of - which Merrifield did primarily this season - higher wear and tear on your body than manning 2B. That could be a factor as well.
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"You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra |
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11-15-2019, 05:43 PM | #4145 | ||||||
Rabbi Goldmann
Join Date: Nov 2012
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I’d quibble on his FB a bit, when he locates it he’s got a fine FB. I’ve never been a believer in the “3-pitch” starter thing because I’ve seen plenty who make it without, ie Yordano Ventura, Vargas and maybe including Duffy. They all have 1 superior pitch but so does Montgomery IMO.
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11-16-2019, 07:47 AM | #4146 |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
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Location: Kansas City
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*** Official 2019 Kansas City Royals Repository ***
The 3-pitch mantra really speaks to upside and is dependent on how good each pitch is.
A guy with a plus or better fastball and a plus or better breaking ball can get away with a “show-me” pitch for his third pitch easier than a guy with an average fastball and breaking ball. Command plays up every pitch. Tunneling (having each pitch come out of the same delivery point) plays up every pitch. Having a plus plus pitch also let’s you get away with lesser secondaries or command. Top of rotation guys are going to have some Combination of 2 plus tools and 2 average tools. Mid rotation guys will have at least 1 plus tool and a few average ones. Ventura had a double-plus fastball and a plus curve. He was flashing a plus changeup and improved command at the end of the 16 season, which makes his death all the more tragic. Vargas has a plus changeup but a below average FB. That makes his command critical, as well as spotting his CB, critical. When he doesn’t have those, he gets crushed. Duffy, when he was pitching like a ToR guy in 14, 16, and 17, had a plus fastball (some nights even double-plus), and a breaking ball and changeup that were both average. He usually was able to ramp one up to plus status each time out (and when he had both, he did things like strike out 17 guys in a game). The past few years, his FB has lost just a smidge, and he hasn’t consistently found his change or slider. That’s why he has been so up and down. He hasn’t ever developed the plus command he’d need to overcome the slight loss of “stuff.”
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"You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra |
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11-17-2019, 08:06 PM | #4147 |
In Search of a Life
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So this is gonna get ugly
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11-17-2019, 08:32 PM | #4148 |
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They're in deep deep trouble. There are supposedly emails too confirming they wanted to do this.
I don't even know what the punishment should be. You can't do a slap on the wrist for this. |
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11-17-2019, 08:37 PM | #4149 | |
sorta mod-ish
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I'd think Hinsch should be gone for starters. Maybe the whole front office? I don't know on this one. |
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11-17-2019, 08:42 PM | #4150 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Feb 2004
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It's looking like it's coming from the top of the Org. If that's the case, at what point do we start talking about vacating wins/the title?
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11-17-2019, 08:44 PM | #4151 |
Woman should only make babies
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Chiefsplanet royals baseball talk > rest of the internet
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11-17-2019, 08:45 PM | #4152 |
Herm is the worst...horrible
Join Date: Sep 2000
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Are we sure it was important to their first title? I was under the impression that it was their more recent contact rate change that's at issue - so maybe the 2019 AL pennant could be in question.
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11-17-2019, 09:45 PM | #4153 |
MVP
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11-17-2019, 09:50 PM | #4154 |
In Search of a Life
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Wow. Why in the hell would you put this kinda stuff in digital print and then not delete the stuff??
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Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning: Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down. One of the best plays Matt has ever made. |
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11-17-2019, 09:51 PM | #4155 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2001
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When the Royals beat them they had the 2nd or 3rd most strikeouts. In 2017 it totally flipped and they had the fewest strikeouts in the league. It was like flipping a switch. I thought it was 100% an analytics thing seeing how much success the Royals had with that philosophy. |
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