***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Are there meat packing plants in Ford and Finney counties in Kansas?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

IHME updated again.

I don't see a lot of noticeable changes except it went off the rails in Arizona.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...merica/arizona

Yeah, that's pretty wonky. It's hard to imagine that Arizona would see 10x as many deaths in the next 3 months as we have in the past 3. If things started looking bad, you have to imagine they'd start restricting things again. But those kinds of "dance" decisions aren't included in the model I suppose.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

The worst is over which is great.

I hope so but part of me is thinking are we going to repeat the 1918 pandemic. Fall was by far the worst period when that occurred.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

IHME updated again.

I don't see a lot of noticeable changes except it went off the rails in Arizona.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...merica/arizona

If you want to look at a good model use this one. They have been pretty much spot on the whole time


https://covid19-projections.com/#view-projections

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, that's pretty wonky. It's hard to imagine that Arizona would see 10x as many deaths in the next 3 months as we have in the past 3. If things started looking bad, you have to imagine they'd start restricting things again. But those kinds of "dance" decisions aren't included in the model I suppose.

I mean honestly I look at it, and all I see is we are extending this thing further and further out.

Get it over with already.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I hope so but part of me is thinking are we going to repeat the 1918 pandemic. Fall was by far the worst period when that occurred.

I think it all depends on how disciplined we are. If we follow the guidelines I think we'll be okay. If we don't then who knows...

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, that's pretty wonky. It's hard to imagine that Arizona would see 10x as many deaths in the next 3 months as we have in the past 3. If things started looking bad, you have to imagine they'd start restricting things again. But those kinds of "dance" decisions aren't included in the model I suppose.

I read a story about 2 hours ago that Arizona has been trying extremely hard to not having their nursing home data reported because it would make their numbers look bad so I have no idea if that plays in.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

I think it all depends on how disciplined we are. If we follow the guidelines I think we'll be okay. If we don't then who knows...

Then we are screwed

[Discuss Thrower]

San Francisco Fed: 20%+ unemployment through year 2022.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

San Francisco Fed: 20%+ unemployment through year 2022.

That's not remotely what that article says.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by limested

Viral respiratory infections tend to drop significantly this time of year. This was expected. The worry is that it come back hard in the fall.

I realize that, but that doesn't explain why critical care remains constant but death rate has dropped. I fully expect this to be mitigated by the hot and humid weather and come back in the fall during the cold and flu season.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

I think it all depends on how disciplined we are. If we follow the guidelines I think we'll be okay. If we don't then who knows...

We should be able to deal with it better in the fall but it would help if everybody would get their flu shots so we don't have to deal with that as much at the same time.

[POND_OF_RED]

Originally Posted by DaFace

My issue is just that it's really not possible to truly keep that group isolated. Many of them rely on family members to help with chores, shopping, medications, etc., so they'll still have contact with the "infected world." It will also hit hardest among families where grandparents are living with a larger family (typically lower-income and minorities).

But it is what it is at this point. The grand re-opening is happening, so all we can do is try and hope for the best.

If it’s not possible to keep that group isolated than it should easily tell you that it’s COMPLETELY impossible to keep the majority of the country isolated. We need to get back to people remembering that death and taxes are the only thing certain in life. You’re still much more likely to die from some sort of cancer than you are from Coronavirus. However people used to convince themselves to go about their daily lives without focusing on the panic porn is what we need to remember to do. I don’t know if it’s going to be possible for some of you that have been stuck at home with nothing but the news. The good news is that so far this year we’re actually on the lower end of expected deaths so keeping everyone locked in there homes has obviously taken away a lot of the other expected deaths to even the numbers out a bit.

[jackkked]

I found this on the SanDiegoCounty.gov website this morning, not sure if all municipalities offer such information or not, but for those that are interested in knowing what is really going on, it could be useful.

[POND_OF_RED]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I realize that, but that doesn't explain why critical care remains constant but death rate has dropped. I fully expect this to be mitigated by the hot and humid weather and come back in the fall during the cold and flu season.

Hopefully we can at least get the home opener with fans so we can have our banner raising party before it returns then.