If fully healthy, this could be the greatest offense we've ever watched

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by crispystl

I have a feeling he's really been sandbagging some of the running game with Pacheco.
I think he's fast enough to turn the corner on some off tackle and other runs we haven't seen for a while.

they pitched him the ball ONCE this season to my memory, and it wasn't a toss play

i want to see a toss with thuney out there in front

[crispystl]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

they pitched him the ball ONCE this season to my memory, and it wasn't a toss play

i want to see a toss with thuney out there in front

Yup exactly. It's something him and the o-line should be able to execute at a high level too.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

I just remembered; yesterday I was watching some show, and they said that Andy tended to open up the playbook in the last week or two of the season, to force DCs to have to account for what could be run from those concepts. In common language, Andy likes to eff with people.

The increased use of stats in analysis has been really interesting if only because of how teams counter it.

'Tendency breakers' are more than just something of an interesting turn of phrase. I mean sometimes they're used to run against type and actually produce. But oftentimes it truly is something that coaches call just to **** with the spreadsheets.

If anyone's doing that right now, I don't think it's Andy - I think it's Spags.

Think of how much less often we've been blitzing, especially on 3rd downs. And why? I think Spags is trying to drive down those blitz rates. Sure, just keep making your spreadsheet more involved and you can pare out more and more white noise, but the more involved the numbers are, the more prone guys get to paralysis by analysis.

I think there are coaches - and we have a few of them - who calls plays ESPECIALLY to screw with trends that analytics departments are trying to use to establish an edge. You run those things out there to dick up the ratios and the pocket protector brigade doesn't really recognize it, IMO. Next thing you know they're feeding the DC raw numbers of what someone does in a similar situation and those numbers are flawed because the coaching staff actively dicked with them during the regular season.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The increased use of stats in analysis has been really interesting if only because of how teams counter it.

'Tendency breakers' are more than just something of an interesting turn of phrase. I mean sometimes they're used to run against type and actually produce. But oftentimes it truly is something that coaches call just to **** with the spreadsheets.

If anyone's doing that right now, I don't think it's Andy - I think it's Spags.

Think of how much less often we've been blitzing, especially on 3rd downs. And why? I think Spags is trying to drive down those blitz rates. Sure, just keep making your spreadsheet more involved and you can pare out more and more white noise, but the more involved the numbers are, the more prone guys get to paralysis by analysis.

I think there are coaches - and we have a few of them - who calls plays ESPECIALLY to screw with trends that analytics departments are trying to use to establish an edge. You run those things out there to dick up the ratios and the pocket protector brigade doesn't really recognize it, IMO. Next thing you know they're feeding the DC raw numbers of what someone does in a similar situation and those numbers are flawed because the coaching staff actively dicked with them during the regular season.

This is a really interesting concept that I never even thought about.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

This is a really interesting concept that I never even thought about.

I can't prove a damn bit of it.

But I know how numbers work and I absolutely believe it to be true. The savvy coaches in this league are no different than someone like Greg Maddux. Maddux used to go out there and with 2 outs and nobody on, give up a base hit on purpose. He'd get ahead in the count and groove one to the guy.

And if that dude came up 3 weeks later with 2 runners on a tie ballgame, he'd get ahead and the count again and throw the nastiest pitch he had because he knows that guy remembers the last AB when he got a cement mixer and it's in the back of his mind.

Supercharge that and apply it to the data revolution and I just cannot imagine coaches aren't doing it.

It's more than just sandbagging - it's actively suppressing your tendencies to throw off the analytics.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The increased use of stats in analysis has been really interesting if only because of how teams counter it.

'Tendency breakers' are more than just something of an interesting turn of phrase. I mean sometimes they're used to run against type and actually produce. But oftentimes it truly is something that coaches call just to **** with the spreadsheets.

If anyone's doing that right now, I don't think it's Andy - I think it's Spags.

Think of how much less often we've been blitzing, especially on 3rd downs. And why? I think Spags is trying to drive down those blitz rates. Sure, just keep making your spreadsheet more involved and you can pare out more and more white noise, but the more involved the numbers are, the more prone guys get to paralysis by analysis.

I think there are coaches - and we have a few of them - who calls plays ESPECIALLY to screw with trends that analytics departments are trying to use to establish an edge. You run those things out there to dick up the ratios and the pocket protector brigade doesn't really recognize it, IMO. Next thing you know they're feeding the DC raw numbers of what someone does in a similar situation and those numbers are flawed because the coaching staff actively dicked with them during the regular season.

Don't know how I missed this the first time through. Really interesting stuff. Never thought about it from a stats/probability perspective. Makes a lot of sense though.

From what I remember of the show, those guys thought that Andy was throwing a big eye candy play at the defense, to mess with the teams KC will play in the playoffs.

Basically, "here, I've run a couple plays in the past from this formation (kind of), with a TE, a WR, and an RB in the backfield, with Mahomes as the tailback or whatever, before, but now I'm going to show you something you've never seen before, deal with that!" Because now those DCs in the playoffs are going to have to try and figure out how to counter not only that play, but whatever else Andy might dream up from that formation/position group.

And it worked to perfection, the phantom holding call notwithstanding. When you watch the NextGen Stats animation of the play, the defense is standing there flat-footed at the snap; the safeties and the LBs in particular have no idea what's coming. Even after the snap at least one of the safeties doesn't move for several seconds. And most of the defense just looks confused.

Anyway, the RGR guys tracked all the plays, and said that we saw more 'new' plays in that game than we had in a long time. They weren't as flashy as the snowglobe play, mostly they were plays from formations Andy uses a lot, but completely different motion, routes, or whatever. Apparently, there's permutations Andy's come up with that, as a fan watching on TV, we don't really see but that the players on defense do see, that constitute the eye candy. Kind of showing you his 'tell,' then doing something unexpected from it.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

I just remembered; yesterday I was watching some show, and they said that Andy tended to open up the playbook in the last week or two of the season, to force DCs to have to account for what could be run from those concepts. In common language, Andy likes to eff with people.

It was RGR. That was the show.

Interesting, can't say I remember it in previous seasons, at least not to the extent of the Raiders game.

Their style of holding back is seriously frustrating at times, but in those games I almost just have to laugh and think... well, might want to pull your heads out of your asses. And they do at an alarming rate.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Interesting, can't say I remember it in previous seasons, at least not to the extent of the Raiders game.

Their style of holding back is seriously frustrating at times, but in those games I almost just have to laugh and think... well, might want to pull your heads out of your asses. And they do at an alarming rate.

Yeah, I can't remember it specifically, but I don't rehash every game looking specifically for how many new plays are run. Unless it's pretty out there, a lot of times I don't notice until someone else brings it up.

I do remember one year, though i couldn't nail down exactly which now, so probably at least a couple three years ago, when Andy finished the season with more than the usual number of trick plays, and I got amped about it to the point that I predicted a ton of them in the playoffs. But that didn't really happen. There were trick plays, but not a big infusion of them.

[DJ's left nut]

I reiterate, you beat the cover 2 with speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed.

Y'all can have your 'physical' WRs and 'zone beaters' who don't actually have any stand out skills to speak of.

I want jackrabbits. You give me Toney, Hardman and MVS out on that field with Kelce and this offense will hum like we haven't ever seen.

You can only cover so much grass, fellas. The limiting factor that has historically existed on this approach was the QB, but our QB can challenge every square inch of turf.

So give him targets that can get to them.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I reiterate, you beat the cover 2 with speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed.

Y'all can have your 'physical' WRs and 'zone beaters' who don't actually have any stand out skills to speak of.

I want jackrabbits. You give me Toney, Hardman and MVS out on that field with Kelce and this offense will hum like we haven't ever seen.

You can only cover so much grass, fellas. The limiting factor that has historically existed on this approach was the QB, but our QB can challenge every square inch of turf.

So give him targets that can get to them.

I 100% expect teams to swarm Kelce in the postseason.

We're going to see HUGE plays from our speed guys.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

I 100% expect teams to swarm Kelce in the postseason.

We're going to see HUGE plays from our speed guys.

PM's gotta hit 'em.

The chemistry with him and MVS is still off. And frankly, Mahomes has always thrown too flat of a deep ball.

But he doesn't have to bat 1.000 here. Hit 1 early and another in the 2nd half and that may be all it takes.

[ToxSocks]

I read this:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I reiterate, you beat the cover 2 with speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed.

And immediately thought this:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

PM's gotta hit 'em.

The chemistry with him and MVS is still off. And frankly, Mahomes has always thrown too flat of a deep ball.

The Chiefs have plenty of speed. But Mahomes misses more than he hits on those deep vertical shots down the sideline.

We've seen time and time again, both with MVS and Hardman, both dudes getting wide the **** open and PM either flat out misses or just doesn't see them.

It's not really a great part of PM's game right now. Just gotta hope PM catches fire with those in the playoffs.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I reiterate, you beat the cover 2 with speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed.

Y'all can have your 'physical' WRs and 'zone beaters' who don't actually have any stand out skills to speak of.

I want jackrabbits. You give me Toney, Hardman and MVS out on that field with Kelce and this offense will hum like we haven't ever seen.

You can only cover so much grass, fellas. The limiting factor that has historically existed on this approach was the QB, but our QB can challenge every square inch of turf.

So give him targets that can get to them.

The 49ers game was a good case study on this and I’d argue that it was our best offensive game of the season.

The pure speed of Hardman and MVS opened everything up. But with cover 2 you already have 2 guys taking the reigns off the deep ball. Then 2 more usually on Kelce.

Andy schemed Juju open several times that game and the speed/Kelce matchup’s clearly had Juju 1v1 and he won. A lot.

Andy even got him matched up on a LB multiple times due to this and it killed SF’s defense. We also did this with Sammy Watkins with great success.

[BWillie]

Patrick still has NEVER had a good WR2.

Never.

[ForeverIowan]

Yeah the combo of Pat with Kelce,Juju,Hardman,Toney, McKinnon is gonna be damn tough to stop. Good luck to opposing defenses.