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Old 01-15-2009, 12:52 PM   #1
Amnorix Amnorix is offline
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I think the fire/keep Herm analysis is a bit shallow.

The question is not is Herm the best coach to keep. The question is much more complex. The question is, "Given the available this year and the the potential other available head coach that we could hire next year, is it in KC's long term interest to replace Herm this year or wait until next year."

If Herm is fired, it will only be after Scott has identified who he wants as his replacement.
So you think Scott can/will determine what he wants to do based on who MIGHT be available next year. That's insane, IMHO. How the heck does he know for certain who is available next year?
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:31 PM   #2
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So you think Scott can/will determine what he wants to do based on who MIGHT be available next year. That's insane, IMHO. How the heck does he know for certain who is available next year?
Obviously he doesn't know exactly who will be available next year. But what he is NOT going to do is fire Herm and replace him with someone who he doesn't feel is the right fit. And then be stuck at the end of next season with the problem of needing to fire him to get a guy he really wants. If the perfect candidate is not available he will "push" one year.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:36 PM   #3
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Obviously he doesn't know exactly who will be available next year. But what he is NOT going to do is fire Herm and replace him with someone who he doesn't feel is the right fit. And then be stuck at the end of next season with the problem of needing to fire him to get a guy he really wants. If the perfect candidate is not available he will "push" one year.
Well, I agree he wont' fire him if he doesn't feel he can likely get a good fit. But that's sort of obvious, yes?
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:03 PM   #4
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Well, I agree he wont' fire him if he doesn't feel he can likely get a good fit. But that's sort of obvious, yes?
No that isn't obvious.

The Jets fired Mangini without figuring out who his replacement would be. I am saying Scott isn't firing Herm unless he has a replacement in mind that is the perfect fit.
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Old 01-15-2009, 12:36 PM   #5
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Scott praised Herm, but when asked to give his assessment of his strengths as a coach, all he could come up with is that he liked him personally and that his players played hard for him. While that's clearly important, he didn't say ALOT of the buzzwords that I would expect him to say if he were giving a coach high praise.
You do know that Herm got a Christmas card from your boy Bill, what higher praise could there be?
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Old 01-15-2009, 12:52 PM
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Old 01-15-2009, 12:57 PM   #7
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FYI LJ counts 8 mil against the cap. That won't factor into the decision?
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:03 PM   #8
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FYI LJ counts 8 mil against the cap. That won't factor into the decision?
Yes, it will. Definitely. Players that are overpaid compared to performance usually get asked to trim things.

The Belichick appraoch is an economic one. Cost/benefit analysis goes into EVERY decision. Which players to keep, which to cut, which draft picks make the most sense, etc. etc. Little known is that Belichick was an economist major in college.

But, if Pioli thinks he's worth $8MM, which is about 6 or 7% or so of the current cap number, right, then that might not be a bone of contention. The other relevant question is what is the cap hit to cut him, based on acceleration of the signing bonus?
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:09 PM   #9
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Yes, it will. Definitely. Players that are overpaid compared to performance usually get asked to trim things.

The Belichick appraoch is an economic one. Cost/benefit analysis goes into EVERY decision. Which players to keep, which to cut, which draft picks make the most sense, etc. etc. Little known is that Belichick was an economist major in college.

But, if Pioli thinks he's worth $8MM, which is about 6 or 7% or so of the current cap number, right, then that might not be a bone of contention. The other relevant question is what is the cap hit to cut him, based on acceleration of the signing bonus?
It's 8m either way I believe.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:25 PM   #10
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It's 8m either way I believe.
Possible, but a bit surprising.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:39 PM   #11
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It's 8m either way I believe.
I read on here that it was 8.6.
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Old 01-15-2009, 08:26 PM   #12
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I read on here that it was 8.6.
I believe what you read is that the difference to sap would be $600, 000.00.

If he's on the roster, his cap number is 8.2 mil.
Cut or traded it would be 8.8 mil.
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Old 01-15-2009, 12:59 PM   #13
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Thanks for your take Amnorix.

NO way in Hell do i see Herm staying as HC.

Has there ever been a situation like that?

A coach who has won 6 games in 2 years. New GM comes in and keeps the same coach?

I cant think of anything like that. Herm is dead man walking.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:03 PM   #14
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:08 PM   #15
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Thanks for the thoughts Amnorix. Much appreciated.
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