An analysis of franchise momentum: The Chiefs' Dow Jones Average.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

So in other words, when they win it all next year, this will officially and OBJECTIVELY be the most successful era of Chiefs football ever.

My model penalizes a team heavily for losing a first-round playoff game, puts you at around breakeven for going 1-1 in the playoffs, and really rewards you for going better than 1-1.

So yes. Next year is going to be a big breakthrough.

[Talisman]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

My model penalizes a team heavily for losing a first-round playoff game, puts you at around breakeven for going 1-1 in the playoffs, and really rewards you for going better than 1-1.

So yes. Next year is going to be a big breakthrough.

Love all of this, Rain Man. Such great work.

On the playoff side of things, what do you think about a factor built in for breaking a slump. The playoff win against the Colts this year gained us 3 points that were immediately negated the following week with a playoff loss. However, most any fan would see this postseason as a positive for the organization's direction. Each sequential playoff loss could then cause a win to be worth that much more. Something like a 0.2 increase for each previous sequential loss > 1 (since you always lose the previous playoff game if you don't win the SB).

This year's Colts win would have been worth and additional factor of 0.6 (3 X 0.2) giving the team 4.8 points for the win, and a positive 1.8 for the postseason as a whole. The playoff win in Houston in 2016 broke a 7 game postseason losing streak and would have been worth 7.2 points.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Talisman

Love all of this, Rain Man. Such great work.

On the playoff side of things, what do you think about a factor built in for breaking a slump. The playoff win against the Colts this year gained us 3 points that were immediately negated the following week with a playoff loss. However, most any fan would see this postseason as a positive for the organization's direction. Each sequential playoff loss could then cause a win to be worth that much more. Something like a 0.2 increase for each previous sequential loss > 1 (since you always lose the previous playoff game if you don't win the SB).

This year's Colts win would have been worth and additional factor of 0.6 (3 X 0.2) giving the team 4.8 points for the win, and a positive 1.8 for the postseason as a whole. The playoff win in Houston in 2016 broke a 7 game postseason losing streak and would have been worth 7.2 points.

I think I kind of have something built in that proxies this. You get +1 points at the end of each year for making the playoffs and -1 for missing it. So there's that (which also tells you my mindset back in 2009 - I didn't even think about playoff winning or losing streaks).

I get your point, though, that a win after several losses would have more of a positive impact. At this point I'd lean toward just being consistent, especially since we have a run of Super Bowl wins coming our way.

And welcome - I haven't seen you in a bit.

[jerryaldini]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

We're really on an epic run right now, but we just started at a low point. There have been three life-altering rises in Chiefs history.

From 1960 through Super Bowl IV, the Chiefs rose 33.48 points, starting at 0 and rising to +33.48 under Hank Stram.

From 1989 through 1997, the Chiefs rose 42.4 points from Marty's arrival up to the kickoff of the vegetable oil game against the Cheaters. We went from -23.35 to +19.07

From 2013 through the present, the Chiefs have risen 36.4 points from Andy's arrival to the current moment. We went from -27.09 to our current +9.31.

Looks like Andy has the best per game record in Chiefs history, yet somehow he sucks. With Pat he will sustain to become the most successful coach the franchise has had.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

I approve of this data-gizmo Mr. Rain Man, and have pos-repped you for your hard work in this endeavor.

Would it be possible to create and track a purely defense-oriented version of this data-model? We have a new D-Coord and system revision coming, and it might be beneficial to track our progress outside of normal NFL parameters.

[scho63]

So financially speaking, if I invested $1000 in the Chiefs at the beginning, how much money would I have now?

Was it a good investment?

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by scho63

So financially speaking, if I invested $1000 in the Chiefs at the beginning, how much money would I have now?

Was it a good investment?

$1000 less than you had before.

[Rain Man]

I've been waiting to update this, so here you go.

The Chiefs franchise index currently stands at +24.6784. The last time it felt this good to be a Chiefs fan was Week 3 of the 1974 season, where the Chiefs started 2-1 following nine straight winning seasons that included a Super Bowl win, an AFL championship, and another Super Bowl appearance. It was Hank Stram's last year, and the barbarians were at the gates, so the index was on its way down from the 1960s glory years. Andy has made this the best time to be a Chiefs fan in 46 years.

Also recall that when Andy took over in 2013, the franchise momentum measure was at an all time low of -27.7736. When Andy arrived on the scene, it was literally the worst time ever to be a Chiefs fan based on this measure. And now we're the Super Bowl champions.

[Rain Man]

Time for an update.

According to this analysis, the week after the Buffalo playoff game was the best time to be a Chiefs fan in the history of the world. The index peaked that week with an all-time high score of 33.7310.

The previous high water mark of the franchise was a 22-9 win over the Buffalo Bills in the final week of the 1971 season, which gave us a playoff spot in a Christmas Day game against the Dolphins. We know how that turned out. Our index score was +33.6331. We didn't get back to that level until the Bills game last month.

Five of the ten best weeks to be a Chiefs fan have occurred under Andy Reid. The other five occurred under Hank Stram, and it was a long walk through the desert in between. So let's enjoy it.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

Time for an update.

According to this analysis, the week after the Buffalo playoff game was the best time to be a Chiefs fan in the history of the world. The index peaked that week with an all-time high score of 33.7310.

The previous high water mark of the franchise was a 22-9 win over the Buffalo Bills in the final week of the 1971 season, which gave us a playoff spot in a Christmas Day game against the Dolphins. We know how that turned out. Our index score was +33.6331. We didn't get back to that level until the Bills game last month.

Five of the ten best weeks to be a Chiefs fan have occurred under Andy Reid. The other five occurred under Hank Stram, and it was a long walk through the desert in between. So let's enjoy it.

Why wouldn’t it be the week after the Super Bowl win?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kcbubb]

Wow. This is really interesting to me. Well done and rep. I wonder if the formula could be changed? Should the value of each playoff win increase as you win more games? For example, each playoff game would increase slightly to the point that winning the Super Bowl could be worth 15 points? Winning the Super Bowl shouldn’t be worth the same amount as a winning a wild card game? And maybe not increase the negative of a playoff loss? Just something to consider.

[kcbubb]

The rams would be an interesting franchise to run through this algorithm. If we are looking at this like a stock, I wonder what their value would have been after the Super Bowl in 2000 bc they were really bad for a long time before that.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Wow. This is really interesting to me. Well done and rep. I wonder if the formula could be changed? Should the value of each playoff win increase as you win more games? For example, each playoff game would increase slightly to the point that winning the Super Bowl could be worth 15 points? Winning the Super Bowl shouldn’t be worth the same amount as a winning a wild card game? And maybe not increase the negative of a playoff loss? Just something to consider.

This is certainly subjective, so the formula could be adjusted. One thing that is a big deal is playoff success. When I put it together I decided that if you get points for each playoff win, the score rockets up for a Super Bowl win because they all stack up. So a Super Bowl win benefits a lot from the games that lead up to it.

Originally Posted by kcbubb

The rams would be an interesting franchise to run through this algorithm. If we are looking at this like a stock, I wonder what their value would have been after the Super Bowl in 2000 bc they were really bad for a long time before that.

Yeah, it would be really interesting to do this for all of the teams, and then overlay and compare. But it's more work than I want to tackle. Maybe someday when I find myself really bored. I'll tackle the AFC West teams.

[displacedinMN]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

The rams would be an interesting franchise to run through this algorithm. If we are looking at this like a stock, I wonder what their value would have been after the Super Bowl in 2000 bc they were really bad for a long time before that.

There would be many teams that would have had to take Chapter 13 after being in the hole for so long.

[Bearcat]

Rain Man is dominating the offseason.