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03-22-2013, 11:53 PM | |
Sexiest Athlete
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?
Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.
Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB? Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating. If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal. Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated. http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/ Kind of interesting and worth the read. |
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03-25-2013, 11:58 AM | #196 |
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Is it bad if I have gone from hoping we draft Geno Smith to hoping we don't get trade raped? I still would prefer Geno to a trade down, but I have given up hope.
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03-25-2013, 12:02 PM | #197 | |
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Quote:
Geno to me, especially if they cant trade down, is a very real possibility......
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Resident Browns fan I’m not here to argue about Alex Smith. Fastest Ignore user on CP |
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03-25-2013, 12:07 PM | #198 |
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We're going to get trade raped. That's how our drafts go.
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03-25-2013, 04:59 PM | #199 | |
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Quote:
Then there's the tackle situation, they cut their starting RT and are shopping their starting LT, all the while they have had private workouts with Luke Joeckel, no private workout with Geno. They want to recoup their 2nd rounder whether that be through a trade of Albert or a trade of the first pick, and then they want a tackle in the first round. If they are unable to get either trade I think they either take Joeckel and play him at RT for the year then Albert is gone after this season or possibly Sharrif Floyd who they have also had a private workout with. If they can't get out of the number 1 pick Dorsey is going BPA, but that's not Geno not even close. Every single big board I have read has Geno nowhere close to BPA, most have Joeckel ranked #1. Even after his pro day the highest I have seen Geno ranked is 9 best available, with the majority of rankings having him in the 20-25 range and Mel Kiper not even having him in the first round. There's absolutely nothing that points to the Chiefs taking Geno and I can't believe that everyday people here still talk about it like it's a real possibility. |
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