Andy Reid seems to think all Tackles are created equal . . .

[HMc]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

Agreed for the most part.

The reason Smith was drafted in the 2nd and Bray went undrafted has a lot more to do with the worst-case scenario, rather than the best.

But if the worst-case scenario plays itself out for both teams, who would you rather be? The Jets, who spent a second round pick on a guy that will never be more than average. Or the Chiefs, who signed an UDFA who is out of football in a couple years?

If the goal is always to obtain a "franchise" QB, which I believe it should be, then I would much rather be the Chiefs than the Jets.

That entirely contradicts the rest of your post.

Even if their ceilings are identical, Smith looks about 100 times more likely to reach it.

So you approve of signing undrafted QBs in the search of a franchise QB? And you prefer that to spending the ~40th pick on a guy that had am awful lot of 1st round noise about him? Seriously?

[TomBarndtsTwin]

Originally Posted by HMc

That entirely contradicts the rest of your post.

Even if their ceilings are identical, Smith looks about 100 times more likely to reach it.

So you approve of signing undrafted QBs in the search of a franchise QB? And you prefer that to spending the ~40th pick on a guy that had am awful lot of 1st round noise about him? Seriously?

100x more likely, huh? You willing to place a bet in Vegas on those odds?

Ahhhhh, yes . . . . . the first round 'buzz'. There's that talk again. And yet not a single team picking in the first round selected him. Go figure.

No, I don't prefer the Chiefs go dumpster-diving to find their future franchise QB, but I'd rather them sign an UDFA like Bray than spend 1.1 on Jamarcus Russell Part Deux.

But that's just me . . . .

[HMc]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

100x more likely, huh? You willing to place a bet in Vegas on those odds?

Ahhhhh, yes . . . . . the first round 'buzz'. There's that talk again. And yet not a single team picking in the first round selected him. Go figure.

No, I don't prefer the Chiefs go dumpster-diving to find their future franchise QB, but I'd rather them sign an UDFA like Bray than spend 1.1 on Jamarcus Russell Part Deux.

But that's just me . . . .

3 posts ago it was the Jets with the 39th pick..Now it's the 1.1.

The goalposts are shifting.

I'm fine with picking up Bray as a UDFA. Would have been fine with using the 34 on Smith. I think you are desperate to conclude that they did better than the jets, and will use all sorts of wierd non-reasoning to do so.

[TomBarndtsTwin]

Originally Posted by HMc

3 posts ago it was the Jets with the 39th pick..Now it's the 1.1.

The goalposts are shifting.

I'm fine with picking up Bray as a UDFA. Would have been fine with using the 34 on Smith. I think you are desperate to conclude that they did better than the jets, and will use all sorts of wierd non-reasoning to do so.

Okay, I'm going to say this again slowly . . . .

The Chiefs did not have a pick in the second round, therefore the only way they could have spent a first or second round pick on a QB would be to use 1.1.

We are having this conversation in the context of the CHIEFS, not the Jets, drafting a QB high in the draft.

I'm not sure why this is so hard to understand.

[HMc]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

Okay, I'm going to say this again slowly . . . .

The Chiefs did not have a pick in the second round, therefore the only way they could have spent a first or second round pick on a QB would be to use 1.1.

We are having this conversation in the context of the CHIEFS, not the Jets, drafting a QB high in the draft.

I'm not sure why this is so hard to understand.

Then why on earth did you bother posting this?

If the goal is always to obtain a "franchise" QB, which I believe it should be, then I would much rather be the Chiefs than the Jets.

[TomBarndtsTwin]

Originally Posted by HMc

Then why on earth did you bother posting this?

You really need to go back in the thread and read my posts from earlier.
I explained my position very clearly:

Summary:

This is, for all intents an purposes, a weak QB class. Most NFL scouts concur with that assessment. Most scouts also believe Bray has a ceiling as high as ANYONE in this draft. But, obviously, his floor is much lower. Which is why he went undrafted.

Therefore, since the goal is to get a high ceiling guy and for him to realize his potential; I would much rather the Chiefs sign a guy like Bray as an UDFA, then draft a guy like Geno, who offers roughly the same ceiling, and additionally costs you a high draft pick. Further, since the Chiefs don't have a second round pick, the only way they could have drafted Geno would have been to spend 1.1 on him. And, IMO (and many other NFL scouts opinions), that would have been a HUGE reach and not good value for the pick.

If Geno was still sitting there in the 4th round and the Chiefs wanted to pull the trigger on him then, I could have lived with that also. But he wasn't and they didn't.

That's about as succinctly as I can explain my position. Again, if you need additional clarification, read back through the thread . . . .

[HMc]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

You really need to go back in the thread and read my posts from earlier.
I explained my position very clearly:

Summary:

This is, for all intents an purposes, a weak QB class. Most NFL scouts concur with that assessment. Most scouts also believe Bray has a ceiling as high as ANYONE in this draft. But, obviously, his floor is much lower. Which is why he went undrafted.

Therefore, since the goal is to get a high ceiling guy and for him to realize his potential; I would much rather the Chiefs sign a guy like Bray as an UDFA, then draft a guy like Geno, who offers roughly the same ceiling, and additionally costs you a high draft pick. Further, since the Chiefs don't have a second round pick, the only way they could have drafted Geno would have been to spend 1.1 on him. And, IMO (and many other NFL scouts opinions), that would have been a HUGE reach and not good value for the pick.

If Geno was still sitting there in the 4th round and the Chiefs wanted to pull the trigger on him then, I could have lived with that also. But he wasn't and they didn't.

That's about as succinctly as I can explain my position. Again, if you need additional clarification, read back through the thread . . . .

Your brokedick analysis appears to assume the following:

• that Geno offers "roughly the same ceiling" as Bray [citation required];
• that players either hit their ceiling or fall to the floor [citation required];and
• all players have the same % chance of hitting their ceiling or falling to the floor.

The reason no team was even willing to spend even a 7 on Bray is that they all formed the view that there is barely a snowflake's shot in hell of him being productive in the NFL. All this "high ceiling" shit is down to him having a big arm and that's it. The QB is the most important position on the field. If there's a guy there in the 7th that has even a 5% chance of being better than the guys taken at 16 and 39, you take him.

Your explanation has been neither clear nor succint - it changes every 2nd post. The only point you've actually made is that you are glad the chiefs didn't spend the 1.1 on Smith. Which is useless really since if they had, he wouldn't have dropped, and we'd all be talking about how he wouldn't have made it past the jaguars at number 2.