A loss that shakes: The Chiefs must prove they are not who they now appear to be

[Hammock Parties]

Most ominous shit Sam has ever written

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/sp...223500455.html

SEATTLE

Do this job long enough and the signs make themselves obvious. The worst losses have a different sound afterward, the busy silence occasionally broken up by a locker door slamming, or team leaders declining to talk to reporters, or hope for hope’s sake.

The losses that sting make clear the difference between a team that’s earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a team that might still wear that title despite itself.

The moments that shake are the difference between a team that lost, and these Chiefs who lost their swagger after a 38-31 nationally televised loss here to the Seahawks.

“It seems extreme right now but that’s not the reality of it,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “Just a fix a couple things and we’ll be alright.”

He might be right. Actually, that’s not true. He is right. Just a couple things. The Chiefs have now lost four games, by a total of 10 points, each of them decided in one form or another late in the fourth quarter.

They’ve lost to two AFC teams. The Patriots have lost three of five, and the Chargers have led the Chiefs for exactly 4 of 7,200 seconds this season. The Chiefs play the Raiders at home next week, which is the closest thing the NFL offers to a week 17 bye. Win that and the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed.

So, Reid is right. Just a couple things. This is not a disaster.

But you sure can see disaster from here.

“You have to find a way to win these games,” quarterback Patrick Mahomes said. “We haven’t been lately, so that’s the most frustrating thing. Everybody’s got to step up.”

Repeat: Just a couple things. We’ll be alright.

That works enough as coach speak in a postgame press conference, words that nobody in the room believes tell the whole story, but let’s play along. A couple things.

One would be the run defense. The Seahawks ran for the most predictable 210 yards in NFL history. Up the middle, around the edge, quarterback Russell Wilson on a scramble. Whatever. It all worked.

One would be the pass defense. The Chiefs again could not cover, and when they did cover, they could not make the play. They made up for all of that by missing far too many tackles.

One would be penalties. They padded their league-leading total with eight more, including one on a missed field goal and four others that gave the Seahawks first downs.

One would be the offense. Nobody wants to admit it, but this is two games in a row the offense has not been good enough. Last week against the Chargers, they needed one first down on their last possession. They went three and out. This week, they managed just 10 points with two turnovers (one that gifted the Seahawks a touchdown) before halftime. They had five possessions in which they punted or turned it over within three plays.

This team was always going as far as the offense would take it, whether that’s fair or not, and the last two weeks the offense hasn’t been good enough.

That’s four things, which is technically more than “a couple,” but this is no time for nitpicking so let’s get to the point.

Do you have confidence the Chiefs will fix these problems? And if so, why? How?

The Chiefs are in a precarious place. They are the probable No. 1 seed, even still, and are giving seldom-used rookie defensive backs the ol’ screw-it-how-much-worse-could-they-be opportunities in week 16 road games.

They have been the AFC’s best team for virtually the entire season, but at this point that feels more like an indictment on the rest of the conference than a reason to be confident in the Chiefs.

Assuming they beat the Raiders next week — and if they don’t, they’ve got much bigger problems — we are still three weeks from the Chiefs’ next real test.

And the heck of it is that Reid is factually accurate. They’re not that far off. The NFL’s gravitational pull means parody rules the day, always has, and the Chiefs will likely have homefield advantage, the best quarterback, and the best offense in the field.

That is an incredible place to be, particularly in what the organization originally forecasted as a transition year.

But the Chiefs are trending the wrong way, at the wrong time. That offense isn’t as dynamic as it once was. Eric Berry is playing again, but most of the biggest problems on defense still exist, even when he’s not on the sideline during the most important moments.

The Chiefs have everything in front of them, even still.

But the truth is a lot of their fans are terrified of what that means.

[Scorpion05]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Rsalize you're talking to a fan base that has played Marty ball for decades. Non stop except for the vermeil years. Weve seen the flaws in Alex smith's game management style.

We aren't doing bad on time of possession. Mahomes extends drives. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I'd bet we're pretty consistently getting at least 6 plays in per drive. And we typically use up the whole clock before we snap the ball. We're losing some TOP battles but that's because no joke, our defense is consistently staying on the field for 10 plays a game.

Mahomes is at his best when he freelances. Reid has already dialed him back. When reid dials back mahomes too much yiu can tell it doesn't fit our style. We go three and out, which does nothing to extend drives.

I get what you're saying. But it's not a good fit for mahomes.

Well yea, of course Marty Ball has its flaws. In order for Marty Ball to truly reach its peak form, you need an elite, efficient QB

But every team has its shortcomings. My opinion is that the Chiefs shortcomings may end up holding them back in the end:

The Chiefs are currently ranked 25th in time of possession on offense. Guess what? That’s ranked the worst among current playoff teams. What’s interesting is that you guys don’t make up for it by avoiding penalties, or turnovers. Your defense spends a LOT of time on the field. It’s clearly not just about them being unable to get off the field. In fact, statistically the Chiefs are not even the worst team on 3rd down defensively. There are at least 7 teams worse, statistically. And most of those teams haven’t had to face as many scrimmage plays.

Give your defense at least one less possession to deal with, and that’s the difference between a heartbreaking loss and a great win.

Kareem Hunt or not, when I watched the Chargers game and saw that you guys couldn’t run out the clock, it reminded me of all those times Andy Reid’s teams would struggle to convert running on 3rd & 1. Andy Reid’s teams are so pass happy that at times when you need to run out the clock, dominate time of possession, it fails. Like a Center trying to shoot a 3 when they dunk 70% of the time

You have to compliment your strengths. If you don’t, your defense will continue to struggle. The Saints, Seahawks, Ravens, Patriots, Bears, Chargers, Rams, and Eagles are all ranked in the top 10 in time of possession. What does that tell you? Look, maybe I’m wrong, and the Chiefs offense is so unbelievable that you’ll overcome it. But from where I’m standing, that’s a problem. Sure, hold your defense accountable. But your offense isn’t helping your defense either.

[O.city]

The offense helps a defense by scoring points. If you want to be a run first control the clock offense, fine, go for it.

I've seen that not work out and i'm not wasting an elite QB by running the ball.

Throw the ball to get ahead, run it to run the clock.

[Scorpion05]

^^ Okay. That still goes against basic football symmetry. No ones saying you need to be run 1st

The best way to utilize your elite talent QB is to give him balance. The team should be about winning games, and being open to adjustment. Not over using your talented QB

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Scorpion05

^^ Okay. That still goes against basic football symmetry. No ones saying you need to be run 1st

The best way to utilize your elite talent QB is to give him balance. The team should be about winning games, and being open to adjustment. Not over using your talented QB

The Chiefs are about 60/40 pass run. That's balanced enough in todays NFL.

[bobbything]

The notion that they are on the field more often because the offense isn't balanced enough is nonsense. The defense has faced 148 total drives this season. That's near the top (7th, I think) of fewest drives faced. The offense is ranked 11th in TOP (decent) and scores a TD or gets a 1st down on 80% of its drives.

The Chiefs defense gives up, on average, 40 yards every drive that it defends. That's dead last. They give up nearly 7 plays per drive. That's dead last. They give up a first down or touchdown 78% of the time. That's dead last. The reality is that they simply cannot get off the field.

The only thing that playing more ball control would do is prevent the offense from scoring enough points to win.

Edit: In addition, opposing offenses have an average starting field position of the 25 yard line. That's the best starting field position in the league as ranked for a defense. So, the defense is at an advantage right off the bat most of the time. I'll say it again, they simply cannot get off the field.

[FAX]

Originally Posted by bobbything

The notion that they are on the field more often because the offense isn't balanced enough is nonsense. The defense has faced 148 total drives this season. That's near the top (7th, I think) of fewest drives faced. The offense is ranked 11th in TOP (decent) and scores a TD or gets a 1st down on 80% of its drives.

The Chiefs defense gives up, on average, 40 yards every drive that it defends. That's dead last. They give up nearly 7 plays per drive. That's dead last. They give up a first down or touchdown 78% of the time. That's dead last. The reality is that they simply cannot get off the field.

The only thing that playing more ball control would do is prevent the offense from scoring enough points to win.

Edit: In addition, opposing offenses have an average starting field position of the 25 yard line. That's the best starting field position in the league as ranked for a defense. So, the defense is at an advantage right off the bat most of the time. I'll say it again, they simply cannot get off the field.

There is iron in these words of playoff death.

FAX

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by bobbything

The notion that they are on the field more often because the offense isn't balanced enough is nonsense. The defense has faced 148 total drives this season. That's near the top (7th, I think) of fewest drives faced. The offense is ranked 11th in TOP (decent) and scores a TD or gets a 1st down on 80% of its drives.

The Chiefs defense gives up, on average, 40 yards every drive that it defends. That's dead last. They give up nearly 7 plays per drive. That's dead last. They give up a first down or touchdown 78% of the time. That's dead last. The reality is that they simply cannot get off the field.

The only thing that playing more ball control would do is prevent the offense from scoring enough points to win.

Edit: In addition, opposing offenses have an average starting field position of the 25 yard line. That's the best starting field position in the league as ranked for a defense. So, the defense is at an advantage right off the bat most of the time. I'll say it again, they simply cannot get off the field.

I'll be honest, on that 3 &15 play....?

I had zero confidence they were going to stop them...

In fact when Seattle scored first and we went 3 and out..I felt like the Chiefs had the script flipped on them, and had a bad feeling from then on...

[FAX]

Originally Posted by stevieray

I'll be honest, on that 3 &15 play....?

I had zero confidence they were going to stop them...

In fact when Seattle scored and we went 3 and out..I felt like the Chiefs had the script flipped on them.

We've seen those late-game 3-and-outs several times over the last few outings, Mr. stevieray.

Offensively, this is the phenomenon that troubles me the most, TBH. It's fair to say that these situations highlight the loss of Hunt and our damaged o-line more than anything.

FAX

[bobbything]

Originally Posted by FAX

There is iron in these words of playoff death.

FAX

Over the course of an entire season, these numbers are what they are. And they spell failure in the playoffs. We are currently ranked 29th in points. We could drop to 30 this weekend. The worst defense to ever make a SB was the 2008 Cardinals at 28th. So, I suppose anything is possible. But the odds are definitely against us.

[bobbything]

Originally Posted by FAX

We've seen those late-game 3-and-outs several times over the last few outings, Mr. stevieray.

Offensively, this is the phenomenon that troubles me the most, TBH. It's fair to say that these situations highlight the loss of Hunt and our damaged o-line more than anything.

FAX

This is what's most troublesome...the combination of our defense giving up 8-10 play drives that result in touchdowns and our offense immediately sputtering on the ensuing drive. It sucks, but the offense has to be perfect.

The 2nd half of the season has been a complete train wreck for this defense. We give up 33 ppg the last 7 weeks. The first 8 weeks were downright 85 Bears-like by comparison at 26 ppg.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Scorpion05

Well yea, of course Marty Ball has its flaws. In order for Marty Ball to truly reach its peak form, you need an elite, efficient QB

But every team has its shortcomings. My opinion is that the Chiefs shortcomings may end up holding them back in the end:

The Chiefs are currently ranked 25th in time of possession on offense. Guess what? That’s ranked the worst among current playoff teams. What’s interesting is that you guys don’t make up for it by avoiding penalties, or turnovers. Your defense spends a LOT of time on the field. It’s clearly not just about them being unable to get off the field. In fact, statistically the Chiefs are not even the worst team on 3rd down defensively. There are at least 7 teams worse, statistically. And most of those teams haven’t had to face as many scrimmage plays.

Give your defense at least one less possession to deal with, and that’s the difference between a heartbreaking loss and a great win.

Kareem Hunt or not, when I watched the Chargers game and saw that you guys couldn’t run out the clock, it reminded me of all those times Andy Reid’s teams would struggle to convert running on 3rd & 1. Andy Reid’s teams are so pass happy that at times when you need to run out the clock, dominate time of possession, it fails. Like a Center trying to shoot a 3 when they dunk 70% of the time

You have to compliment your strengths. If you don’t, your defense will continue to struggle. The Saints, Seahawks, Ravens, Patriots, Bears, Chargers, Rams, and Eagles are all ranked in the top 10 in time of possession. What does that tell you? Look, maybe I’m wrong, and the Chiefs offense is so unbelievable that you’ll overcome it. But from where I’m standing, that’s a problem. Sure, hold your defense accountable. But your offense isn’t helping your defense either.

People mistake our inability to run out the clock with being pass happy. As in... Too aggressive. That's not the problem. The problem is any Reid installs a pass heavy but ultra conservative offense. Runs are replaced with safe sideways passes. Our problem draining clock is that we can't buy a first down to save our life. It's not lack of running. If anything, we need to be more aggressive when we have a lead. We go three or six and out in something like 2/3 of our big lead possessions.

Our TOP problems are heavily weighted by complete inefficiency when we have a lead but big time on our defense consistently going on 8-10+ play drives. I don't think us installing more of a running game helps.

[Scorpion05]

Originally Posted by O.city

The Chiefs are about 60/40 pass run. That's balanced enough in todays NFL.

If 40% is your average, then that means you’ve had more than enough games where you weren’t balanced at all.

I understand everyone has their own point of view. That’s fine. But none of you are truly countering the glaring facts I pointed out about you being ranked extremely low(for such a prolific offense) in time of possession. No one is here to argue your defense is good. But the game the other night was a perfect example and even Collinsworth pointed it out. You guys were running the ball well. I was actually PRAYING that you guys would continue to pass it. Because you can’t consistently win that way. The Chiefs are a paradox. Your defense is supposedly near worst in the league, but not dead last on 3rd dozens...despite facing so many plays from the opposing offense. Your lack of balance is to blame

Had you actually run the ball a little more, Seattle likely loses that game. Or it would be much tighter. Instead, 3 and out several times, or some big plays, and Seahawks controlled the entire game. You’re not even trying to help your defense.

Narratives are powerful. If the narrative is “Chiefs defense is terrible!!,” even if you’re right you ignore all the points that could lessen that narrative. Increasing your time of possession WOULD help your defense, which in turn WOULD lead to less points by the opposing team. Teams game planning against you know that they’ll have their chances because you guys aren’t patient on offense at all. A shootout is inevitable.

If the Chiefs don’t win the Super Bowl, remember this conversation. Remember it again next year too if you change defensive coordinators and players but still end up in too many shootouts. Winning football is not as simplistic as just scoring. Never has been

[Line Judge]

Sorry for another negative
comment but the Chiefs should never, ever, ever wear their red over red uniform again. I cannot remember the last time they won a game in that combination. It certainly wasn’t in prime time.

[NJChiefsFan]

Originally Posted by Line Judge

Sorry for another negative
comment but the Chiefs should never, ever, ever wear their red over red uniform again. I cannot remember the last time they won a game in that combination. It certainly wasn’t in prime time.

It was in prime time against Cincy. I don't like them but I think they actually have a good record with them, no?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Scorpion05

If 40% is your average, then that means you’ve had more than enough games where you weren’t balanced at all.

I understand everyone has their own point of view. That’s fine. But none of you are truly countering the glaring facts I pointed out about you being ranked extremely low(for such a prolific offense) in time of possession. No one is here to argue your defense is good. But the game the other night was a perfect example and even Collinsworth pointed it out. You guys were running the ball well. I was actually PRAYING that you guys would continue to pass it. Because you can’t consistently win that way. The Chiefs are a paradox. Your defense is supposedly near worst in the league, but not dead last on 3rd dozens...despite facing so many plays from the opposing offense. Your lack of balance is to blame

Had you actually run the ball a little more, Seattle likely loses that game. Or it would be much tighter. Instead, 3 and out several times, or some big plays, and Seahawks controlled the entire game. You’re not even trying to help your defense.

Narratives are powerful. If the narrative is “Chiefs defense is terrible!!,” even if you’re right you ignore all the points that could lessen that narrative. Increasing your time of possession WOULD help your defense, which in turn WOULD lead to less points by the opposing team. Teams game planning against you know that they’ll have their chances because you guys aren’t patient on offense at all. A shootout is inevitable.

If the Chiefs don’t win the Super Bowl, remember this conversation. Remember it again next year too if you change defensive coordinators and players but still end up in too many shootouts. Winning football is not as simplistic as just scoring. Never has been

So you're argument here is to score less points, slower, in order to give the defense more rest?

You're handicapping your best player by taking the ball out of his hands.

Scoring more points puts more pressure on the opposing offense to score points.

What the hell is patient on offense? Run it more and punt?