***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BucEyedPea]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah, a week or two ago someone said dogs can get it from humans and then it kinda disappeared and was chalked up as likely 'residual virus' in the dog but nothing that it actually 'caught'.

And seemingly nothing indicates that domestic animals are capable of being carriers.

Until I see anything definitive, that's just borrowing worry. Looking for ghosts when there is no shortage of monsters.

I read that mammals carry all kinds of viruses already. These just don't harm them because of how their bodies are.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah, a week or two ago someone said dogs can get it from humans and then it kinda disappeared and was chalked up as likely 'residual virus' in the dog but nothing that it actually 'caught'.

And seemingly nothing indicates that domestic animals are capable of being carriers.

Until I see anything definitive, that's just borrowing worry. Looking for ghosts when there is no shortage of monsters.

I talked to a local Vet who came in for tests and she said there was no evidence it can be transmitted to house pets.(at this time)

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I talked to a local Vet who came in for tests and she sad there was no evidence it can be transmitted to house pets.

Yeah, that's the overwhelming consensus.

Best guess at this point is that there was virus in the air, it ended up in the dogs nasal cavity, a swab scooped that out and showed the dog has a viral load but in fact it was just something that had come to rest in there and was ultimately going to be inert.

Hadn't given it any thought since. Plenty of other things to worry about at this point. I don't even like one of my dogs. That hard-headed dickhole could use a little 'rona. It'll teach him to stop eating the center out of my toilet paper rolls. C'mon man - at least work from the edges so I have something to salvage...

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I argued that there's little utility in Missouri using it, yes.

Because what else will it accomplish that county-specific orders haven't already done. Local leaders addressed things as needed. I noted in regards to Florida that I don't pay attention to their local leadership and as such don't know if such an order would've been necessary or useful there if done earlier.

I haven't spoken to Mississippi at all because I have no goddamn idea what's happening in Mississippi.

I have, however, cautioned several times against trying to use a single analysis over a myriad of wildly different settings. Guess you must've missed that part.

Prolly but you're wrong about Missouri as well

Missouri’s numbers show that #Covid_19 is firmly inside rural communities all across the state.

For example, cases in Camden County, near Lake of the Ozarks, went from 1 last week to 17 today.

https://t.co/t42uDyByEt #moleg #mogov

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The rate has gone from 2.5%ish to 1.2%ish back to 2.5%ish. We have been consistently well below that of Italy.

I just can't help myself.

Or maybe I can.

I've just given up trying to assist in your attempt to analyze data.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Prolly but you're wrong about Missouri as well

Missouri’s numbers show that #Covid_19 is firmly inside rural communities all across the state.

For example, cases in Camden County, near Lake of the Ozarks, went from 1 last week to 17 today.

https://t.co/t42uDyByEt #moleg #mogov

I've counted 50 counties in Missouri just at a brief glance w/ 1 or 0 cases of it.

And you want to cite the Lake of the Ozarks, one of the highest travel areas in the region, among that lot?

I think Camden is probably approaching a spot where they need to consider taking steps to mitigate spread. I also anticipate they will do exactly that (we have already rec'd notice from their courthouse of anticipated changes; got that a few days ago, IIRC).

Can't throw the chute too early - especially in rural populations (who are closer to subsistence living and have a substantial '**** off' streak anyway). Because again, those are all laws that will be enforced/not enforced by local law enforcement.

Camden is now probably getting close to being able to take steps at a local level that law enforcement will actually adhere to and that actually matter because THEY made the call.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Go make friends with a pulmonology nurse. Those folks are hard as coffin nails, man. They ALL have stories that will make your skin crawl and have had them for years.

Hey, what am I? Chopped liver?

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

I think someone goofed on worldmeters. They just changed all the data.

Florda is fine...for now.

South Florida is going to blow up. It's a ticking exponential curve bomb.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

This one says the opposite
https://www.kmov.com/news/missouri-c...8d944d77b.html

No, it doesn't. The article I posted stated the virus was trending down in the KC Metro area. I didn't see anything in your article that said anything one way or the other about that.

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by Mecca

In the last 2 weeks...10 million people filed for unemployment.

Don't you dare talk about the huge backside issues we are creating in this thread. This thread is for fear porn lovers only.

In 1918 there were 50 million deaths worldwide with a fraction of the total population. We haven't even reached 50k globally. We are shooting ourselves in the foot if we don't get this thing up and running again soon.

This message brought to you by the logical foundation, now back to your regular scheduled fear porn in progress.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I've counted 50 counties in Missouri just at a brief glance w/ 1 or 0 cases of it.

And you want to cite the Lake of the Ozarks, one of the highest travel areas in the region, among that lot?

I think Camden is probably approaching a spot where they need to consider taking steps to mitigate spread. I also anticipate they will do exactly that (we have already rec'd notice from their courthouse of anticipated changes; got that a few days ago, IIRC).

Can't throw the chute too early - especially in rural populations (who are closer to subsistence living and have a substantial '**** off' streak anyway). Because again, those are all laws that will be enforced/not enforced by local law enforcement.

Camden is now probably getting close to being able to take steps at a local level that law enforcement will actually adhere to and that actually matter because THEY made the call.

I seem to remember Fauci saying something about how places will initially have low counts but that doesn't mean much because at any point they could get hit hard.
Alot of these counties made the call too late or havwnt even done it yet.


My fear is that some of these counties just cant support an outbreak. What harm would there be for the gov to call in the stay in place and just call it a day? Apologies if you covered that. This is my first day of spending a good amount of time in this thread I tried to look up your past responses I didnt see it.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

Don't you dare talk about the huge backside issues we are creating in this thread. This thread is for fear porn lovers only.

In 1918 there were 50 million deaths worldwide with a fraction of the total population. We haven't even reached 50k globally. We are shooting ourselves in the foot if we don't get this thing up and running again soon.

This message brought to you by the logical foundation, now back to your regular scheduled fear porn in progress.

There's actually been some great, well-grounded discussion today... let's not ruin it with your bullshit, kthxbye.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

Don't you dare talk about the huge backside issues we are creating in this thread. This thread is for fear porn lovers only.

In 1918 there were 50 million deaths worldwide with a fraction of the total population. We haven't even reached 50k globally. We are shooting ourselves in the foot if we don't get this thing up and running again soon.

This message brought to you by the logical foundation, now back to your regular scheduled fear porn in progress.

Nobody is in fear that millions are going to do. The fear is our healthcare system being stressed to a breaking point and 10 million unemployment claims. Neither is sustainable for a country.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Nobody is in fear that millions are going to do. The fear is our healthcare system being stressed to a breaking point and 10 million unemployment claims. Neither is sustainable for a country.

10 million? Wait until we hit 30 million.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Hey, what am I? Chopped liver?

South Florida is going to blow up. It's a ticking exponential curve bomb.

Been curious about southern Florida for sure.

Miami-Dade issued their lockdown about a week ago, right?

It's an interesting testbed for the 'severity vs. initial load' thing. Seems that a lot of their exposure would be in more open areas, right? Not a resident of southern Florida but I've been to the area a handful of times. People are pretty much always outside, even when they're in crowds.

So it'll be interesting to see if those more 'incidental' exposures rather than the prolonged ones that come from closer-quarters, more enclosed living IN NYC have higher severity rates.

It'll also be interesting to see if Miami-Dade experiences lessened impact than areas around Florida that were less proactive. If my memory serves, they were among the very first major counties in the country to push pause.

It's just so different from NY in so many ways that it may provide some additional insight; a date point from the other side of the curve, so to speak.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by petegz28

10 million? Wait until we hit 30 million.

I saw that fed estimate. Not sure I believe it I think they would open everything up before that point.