***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[PAChiefsGuy]

Map: Watch Coronavirus Cases Spread Across the US

This interactive map shows the spread of the new coronavirus around the United States since March 1, when there were about 100 cases confirmed around the country.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/nati...he-us/2358659/

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Publix around here is only letting customers 65+ and or with disabilities in the stores 7:00-8:00 am on Tuesdays and Wensdays.

Same here with all grocery stores, but every day

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

I'm still hopeful that we won't get to that figure.

There are at least some reasons for optimism. Covidly added a chart based on that YouTube video that compares new cases to total cases, and you can definitely see some "flattening" in Italy and Spain, and it's starting in the U.S. as well.



Source:
https://covidly.com/graph?country=Un...0States&state=
(scroll down almost to the bottom of the page)

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by Easy 6

Those arguments started fast as lightning!

It's a little bit frightning

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by SupDock

At this point, I don't know what the **** you are saying at all.

Clearly.

Here you go...

Originally Posted by AustinChief

reports are showing fatality rates for people under 50 to be equivalent to a bad flu season,

Originally Posted by TLO

Is this true?

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

No.

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Yes it is true and it's already been posted in this thread. .16%

I am not claiming that figure is a final number but that it is being reported as such is 100% true.

(the actual number is <.145%)

Originally Posted by SupDock

Where are you seeing that that CFR of seasonal influenza is .16%?

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I specified a bad flu season estimate not what it is averaged over time. There is a huge yearly variance.

That is pretty much the crux of it all.

So, it all boils down to... is .145% (estimate from a report in the Lancet) a reasonable figure for a very bad flu season? I have a feeling you mostly misread what I posted. Hamas on the other hand just likes to be a prick whenever humanly possibly.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Clearly.

Here you go...








(the actual number is <.145%)





That is pretty much the crux of it all.

So, it all boils down to... is .145% (estimate from a report in the Lancet) a reasonable figure for a very bad flu season? I have a feeling you mostly misread what I posted. Hamas on the other hand just likes to be a prick whenever humanly possibly.

For under 40 I would agree with you. You can see the CFR for age 40+ here.

Keeping in mind, young healthy people having a CFR equivalent to the CFR of all ages in a very bad flu season is a little scary as well, but not nearly as scary as the numbers had been. This whole time data had been supportive of the idea that young healthy people do well

The total CFR of all ages was 1.38 percent, compare that to .16 percent for the " bad flu"

[burt]

Originally Posted by stumppy

What the hell is going on in here?

Everyone has lost their minds in statistic and semantics in the English language. And there appears to be MANY experts...on a football BB.

All these guys know a LOT about Covid19. IF I knew as much about vehicles, I'd be Rick Hendrick!!!

News flash...this is a loosely moderated football BB. We get to be free in our language, we get to say a lot of stuff that would be censored almost any where else. Do NOT take it overly serious. My goodness AC, it's YOUR playground, don't let it get you all festered up.

EVERYONE BREATH....AND CHILL!!!!

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Originally Posted by DaFace

There are at least some reasons for optimism. Covidly added a chart based on that YouTube video that compares new cases to total cases, and you can definitely see some "flattening" in Italy and Spain, and it's starting in the U.S. as well.



Source:
https://covidly.com/graph?country=Un...0States&state=
(scroll down almost to the bottom of the page)

Good News.

Thank you For Sharing

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by SupDock

For under 40 I would agree with you. You can see the CFR for age 40+ here.

Keeping in mind, young healthy people having a CFR equivalent to the CFR of all ages in a very bad flu season is a little scary as well, but not nearly as scary as the numbers had been. This whole time data had been supportive of the idea that young healthy people do well

The total CFR of all ages was 1.38 percent, compare that to .16 percent for the " bad flu"

Again, I am not stating these numbers as FACTS (although I feel they will end up being accurate enough) I stated that it was reported. The report was based on estimates of total infections. I think the chart you posted is based on known or confirmed cases, that is totally different.

Yes you are correct that the comparison is between one demographic for Covid(under 50 or under 60 if you want) and all ages for the flu. BUT the post was in regards to easing restrictions for THAT demo and keeping isolation in place for the older demo and those who are younger and are vulnerable. The context of the post matters quite a bit here.

I'm pretty sure you are attempting to read into my posts things I didn't say or intend. I was pretty specific with my wording to try to avoid that.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

There are at least some reasons for optimism. Covidly added a chart based on that YouTube video that compares new cases to total cases, and you can definitely see some "flattening" in Italy and Spain, and it's starting in the U.S. as well.



Source:
https://covidly.com/graph?country=Un...0States&state=
(scroll down almost to the bottom of the page)

I'm guessing that the data used in that graph is a few days old, unfortunately. I presume that is showing when we saw the growth curve go from concave to convex for a few days.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

I'm guessing that the data used in that graph is a few days old, unfortunately. I presume that is showing when we saw the growth curve go from concave to convex for a few days.

It necessarily uses a week's worth of data (which makes it more stable), but there are other charts with daily data as well, and the slight slowing trend is definitely there. Just scroll through the page I linked.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Again, I am not stating these numbers as FACTS (although I feel they will end up being accurate enough) I stated that it was reported. The report was based on estimates of total infections. I think the chart you posted is based on known or confirmed cases, that is totally different.

Yes you are correct that the comparison is between one demographic for Covid(under 50 or under 60 if you want) and all ages for the flu. BUT the post was in regards to easing restrictions for THAT demo and keeping isolation in place for the older demo and those who are younger and are vulnerable. The context of the post matters quite a bit here.

I'm pretty sure you are attempting to read into my posts things I didn't say or intend. I was pretty specific with my wording to try to avoid that.

https://www.thelancet.com/action/sho...2820%2930243-7

The data and the chart that I posted is from a lancet article estimating case fatality rate. It is the research that prompted the news article that you posted earlier.

I'm still not real clear on what you are saying. If you would be willing to post the original data that prompted your statement of the case fatality rate under age 50, that would be helpful for me.

I was under the assumption that it was the same data that I was referring to.


Full Lancet Article

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It necessarily uses a week's worth of data (which makes it more stable), but there are other charts with daily data as well, and the slight slowing trend is definitely there. Just scroll through the page I linked.

You're talking about day over day percentage growth?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

You're talking about day over day percentage growth?

Just in general, the trends are moving closer to flat. Some of that is because they're plotting a lot on a log scale, but part of it is also that growth, while still significant, is slightly less than it has been at least.

[Donger]

Selfless heroism is at the heart of every #FirstResponder. This generosity was on full display at #NYPLowerManhattan, where the brave men & women of @FDNY showed their appreciation for our #NYPHeroes. We salute #NewYorksBravest as they honor our fight against #COVID19. pic.twitter.com/32HCBoOpax

— NewYork-Presbyterian (@nyphospital) April 2, 2020