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Old 05-05-2014, 10:25 AM  
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Rap Sheet: Talks With Alex Smith Not Progressing Well

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Old 06-04-2014, 03:44 PM   #1606
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You're living in a fantasy world if you think this deal doesn't improve Smith's position.
Numbers from my own head for conversation's sake, but...

If Dorsey is already unwilling to pay Alex $18M, the CK deal isn't going to force him to pay Alex $20M.
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:45 PM   #1607
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You're living in a fantasy world if you think this deal doesn't improve Smith's position.
You're trying to equate a player who's 26 and one who's 30.

In 4 years Kap may be a much better QB than he is today. In 4 years Smith will be lucky to even be in the NFL.

One is about to enter his prime and one is about to exit it. It's not the same thing...
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:46 PM   #1608
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Numbers from my own head for conversation's sake, but...

If Dorsey is already unwilling to pay Alex $18M, the CK deal isn't going to force him to pay Alex $20M.
Exactly...
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:47 PM   #1609
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Numbers from my own head for conversation's sake, but...

If Dorsey is already unwilling to pay Alex $18M, the CK deal isn't going to force him to pay Alex $20M.
I hope you're correct. Only worry is that this deal would convince the Chiefs they need to move towards Condon's end of the deal.
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:52 PM   #1610
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I hope you're correct. Only worry is that this deal would convince the Chiefs they need to move towards Condon's end of the deal.
If this convinces the Chiefs, then Dorsey might be the worst negotiator ever.

Dorsey: We're willing to pay you $14M per season with a nice guarantee.

Smith: Kaepernick just got $18M a season and $60M guaranteed.

Dorsey: Forget what I just said, here's $20M per and you'll play here until you're 40.


What the Niners feel CK is worth has no bearing on what Dorsey feels Alex is worth. If you feel he's worth $14M per, offer him $14M per year and if he doesn't take it, tell him to pound sand and plan to move on in 2015.

If the guy was a young, dynamic playmaker who has shown flashes of greatness - then yeah, he'd have us by the short hairs.

He's a 30 year old who has yet to play at an above average level consistently over an entire season, much less his 8 year career.

We're already overpaying some guys that are either over 30, or about to turn. Last thing we need is wrapping up 40+% of the cap in 5 guys, only one of them being a young, ascending player.
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:53 PM   #1611
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At the same ages, the 49ers thought Smith was worth 7.5, Kap 20 million.
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:57 PM   #1612
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You don't have to overpay to have average play. In fact doing so is exactly why this team has been $#it for years.

We lowball our true talent and then overpay for average players...
I would argue that the Chiefs have a historic inability to develop players, especially at the most important positions on the field. When you can't develop in-house, then you pay a premium to outsource your talent development and the situation is compounded by the fact that the superior talents are not generally available at any price (with a few exceptions). Alex Smith in a career year was mediocre (somewhere around 15th in the league); if the Chiefs overpay to retain him, then they are truly fools.
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:58 PM   #1613
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For YOUNG QB'S WITH UPSIDE.

Smith is not young. We did not draft him.

What is he going to argue? We won't win a playoff game without him?

He has no leverage.

The 49'ers didn't think he was worth top money. We didn't think he was worth a long term deal or top money last year. What part of a very meh year would change anyone's mind?...
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You're trying to equate a player who's 26 and one who's 30.

In 4 years Kap may be a much better QB than he is today. In 4 years Smith will be lucky to even be in the NFL.

One is about to enter his prime and one is about to exit it. It's not the same thing...
His value per year is not affected by his age. The length of the contract is affected by age.
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Old 06-04-2014, 03:58 PM   #1614
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At the same ages, the 49ers thought Smith was worth 7.5, Kap 20 million.
There was quite a bit of difference in the financial from then to now as well. Lets be fair here not one sided.
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:00 PM   #1615
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There was quite a bit of difference in the financial from then to now as well. Lets be fair here not one sided.
Yeah 3 seasons ago was so much different in financials. Especially coming off an NFC Championship appearance, they sure don't think much of Alex Smith and rightfully so.
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:00 PM   #1616
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If this convinces the Chiefs, then Dorsey might be the worst negotiator ever.

Dorsey: We're willing to pay you $14M per season with a nice guarantee.

Smith: Kaepernick just got $18M a season and $60M guaranteed.

Dorsey: Forget what I just said, here's $20M per and you'll play here until you're 40.


What the Niners feel CK is worth has no bearing on what Dorsey feels Alex is worth. If you feel he's worth $14M per, offer him $14M per year and if he doesn't take it, tell him to pound sand and plan to move on in 2015.

If the guy was a young, dynamic playmaker who has shown flashes of greatness - then yeah, he'd have us by the short hairs.

He's a 30 year old who has yet to play at an above average level consistently over an entire season, much less his 8 year career.

We're already overpaying some guys that are either over 30, or about to turn. Last thing we need is wrapping up 40+% of the cap in 5 guys, only one of them being a young, ascending player.
I agree whole-heartedly and think this is all quite logical. The question is if Dorsey - who just a year ago surrendered two second-round picks for this player - can be that logical. Does he have pressure to get more return on those picks than making the playoffs?

I guess... after years of following teams GMed by guys who are loyal to THEIR players and keep THEIR guys around too long to try to prove they were right (Fat Scott, Dayton), I'm gunshy about GMs being smart to avoid that pitfall...
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:03 PM   #1617
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Numbers from my own head for conversation's sake, but...

If Dorsey is already unwilling to pay Alex $18M, the CK deal isn't going to force him to pay Alex $20M.
I don't think it's as much about whether it forces him to pay the highest number Condon wants as that it might make him more open to swinging his own highest number a bit higher. So, not forcing him to pay 20, just maybe making him more open or flexible to go a little over 16 or 17 or whatever he's stuck at now (not saying he should, just that he might...).

In any case, I don't think Krapernick's deal does us anything good. It can only hurt us at this point, assuming a contract with Smith is ever actually signed.
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:03 PM   #1618
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No offense to you personally, but this attitude is what's ****ed about this fanbase.

Teams don't let franchise QB's get to FA and they don't trade them for 2nd round picks.

The only way to get one is to grow some balls and draft/develop one. To be great at anything in life, you have to be willing to take some risks. Sure, maybe you whiff on the pick, but you're guaranteed to be average if you never take the chance.
What attitude are you talking about? I have always wanted us to draft a QB in the first. Still do and I hope we will but with our past I have my doubts.
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:05 PM   #1619
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What attitude are you talking about? I have always wanted us to draft a QB in the first. Still do and I hope we will but with our past I have my doubts.
Because 1st round QBs are guaranteed to be franchise level players.
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Old 06-04-2014, 04:06 PM   #1620
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I don't like it anymore than you guys do but the market has been set. QBs are a commodity just like many other things. The market sets the price for the commodity.
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