***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I think some outliers like Italy and that rest home in Washington freaked people the **** out and bunch of infectious disease specialist who have been waiting their whole career for "the big one" jumped in and started a snowball effect with their doomsday models.

This turned into a "better safe than sorry" mantra which frankly isn't justification for what we have done to the global economy. At least it sure doesn't look that way right now.

He said it right here in regards to medical experts wanting this to happen to further their career.. Waiting their whole career for innocent people to die for 'the big one'

What a joke of a post

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Did it work or would it never have been as bad as feared by taking more mild and measured precautions?

Obviously we will never know for sure.

Not really. We'll see the results of mitigation, because it happened. What we won't and can't know is what would have happened if we hadn't.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by wazu

Just imagine the ratings bonanza. Any sport that gets things up and running will have a ton of new viewers. I never watch NBA, but I would now.

Jumping right in to some NBA playoffs would get you some Jordanesque days type numbers.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

An abundance of caution is done absolutely all the time in medicine. It's the foundation of halting the spread of disease.

Have a patient with suspected TB on the floor and they're immediately moved to negative pressure isolation and everyone that comes in contact with them is wearing masks, goggles, gloves, gowns, and booties.

Now, imagine you have thousands of patients with suspected TB, but you can't identify them quickly, and they've been interacting with thousands of other people. You don't have time to parse information to identify a perfect model, because even the most prominent statisticians in the country will admit and have continually said that building these models is incredibly hard.

But this wasn't just about medicine. This isn't a hospital making this call - this is an entire government. These are decisions that need to be made outside of hospitals going forward. Businesses, schools, stadiums, a million other considerations need to be in place now going forward to determine the best possible outcomes and we made NO progress towards learning what those are.

It's just myopic to say "well we had to treat the entire country like a triage ward..." because that was never how this was going to have to be addressed as a country.

That's been the biggest failure in all of this and again, it WASN'T unpredictable because I said it from the damn start. We only every looked at any of this from a single perspective and in so doing we've not given ourselves the needed information to actually address it going forward.

If July shows a spike, or the almost inevitable spike that will come in November shows its head, we're at square 1. Because we treated the entire nation as a triage ward regardless of their position on the ground and that was a MASSIVE mistake.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Why would it be considered an overreaction if it worked?

If the models are as far off as they are trending it will be extremely debatable as to whether this was all necessary.

Keep in mind the original models had a "potential" 2MM deaths in the US without SD measures right?

With SD measures the models dropped to ~200K supposedly.

Now its trending to between 35K and 185K and the trend keeps dropping as of today unless we somehow double the death rate in the next 2 days. That's compared to the April 5th update BTW.

You simply can't say measures will hopefully get us to 200K deaths then when it doesn't hit 50K go "See it worked!".

But thats exactly whats about to happen.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

He said it right here in regards to medical experts wanting this to happen to further their career.. Waiting their whole career for innocent people to die for 'the big one'

What a joke of a post

You wanted soldiers in the ****ing streets ordering people back in their homes over a model that wasn't worth wiping your ass with.

But yeah, you're an excellent barometer for determining what posts should be taken seriously.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Did it work or would it never have been as bad as feared by taking more mild and measured precautions?

Obviously we will never know for sure.

True , which sucks because we are all looking for the right answer which can work in many fields but the medical world is filled with maybes, try this, we don't know , the human body doesn't always do what it's told.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You wanted soldiers in the ****ing streets ordering people back in their homes over a model that wasn't worth wiping your ass with.

But yeah, you're an excellent barometer for determine what posts should be taken seriously.

That was a terrible overreaction post by me but at least I admit it. That said, in a sense we do have that going on you ****ing idiot. How many people have been arrested for not following social distancing measures put into place?

Go try and throw a party right now and let me know how it works out for you.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

If the models are as far off as they are trending it will be extremely debatable as to whether this was all necessary.

Keep in mind the original models had a "potential" 2MM deaths in the US without SD measures right?

With SD measures the models dropped to ~200K supposedly.

Now its trending to between 35K and 185K and the trend keeps dropping as of today unless we somehow double the death rate in the next 2 days. That's compared to the April 5th update BTW.

You simply can't say measures will hopefully get us to 200K deaths then when it doesn't hit 50K go "See it worked!".

But thats exactly whats about to happen.

My wife has a better chance of getting smoking patients to quit if she tells them stuff like (50% of smokers will die from smoking related complications) rather than just say its bad for you, now is she just being a dick , gloom and doom or doing for the patients benefit.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Why would it be considered an overreaction if it worked?

If a splinter in your finger gets infected and you cut the arm off to stop the spread like you're in a Civil War field hospital, I'd say "hey, it stopped the spread..." is probably not the right approach.

There are a thousand different circumstances where an 'overreaction that works' is still an overreaction. Shit, it has its own word, does it not? Isn't that the entire concept of 'overkill'?

C'mon.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Go try and throw a party right now and let me know how it works out for you.

There's a dude in my neighborhood who has been having get togethers with regularity since the stay at home order started. Considering they're still going strong, I don't think the feds are kicking in his door or anything.

[phisherman]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You wanted soldiers in the ****ing streets ordering people back in their homes over a model that wasn't worth wiping your ass with.

But yeah, you're an excellent barometer for determine what posts should be taken seriously.

This, so, so much. Complete reactionary BS. Find a way to get your blood pressure down; it'll help.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

He said it right here in regards to medical experts wanting this to happen to further their career.. Waiting their whole career for innocent people to die for 'the big one'

What a joke of a post

You are pretty insane dude. Me saying infectious disease experts have been waiting their whole life for the big one does not in any way shape or form imply they are furthering their careers off it. That's like saying smoke jumpers who have always wanted to get into the fight keep the fire going intentionally. I could give you 10 more examples but I am not wasting my time on your dumb ass. Stop making my words mean what you want them to say.

Like I said before you obviously have never worked with subject matter experts in a field that contains risk, they always err on the side of extreme caution. Always.

[petegz28]

Cuomo says NY hospitalization rate is down to 529 which is the lowest in weeks if I understand that correctly

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

That was a terrible overreaction post by me but at least I admit it. That said, in a sense we do have that going on you ****ing idiot. How many people have been arrested for not following social distancing measures put into place?

Go try and throw a party right now and let me know how it works out for you.

And I know every time those cops in SD wrote a citation to those evil ****ers who were sitting in their cars overlooking the ocean while eating carryout you got a hard-on.

Bully for you - you're all sorts of fired up to surrender your liberties out of nothing but rank fear derived from some bullshit model contrived by 'experts'.

Glad you got your stormtroopers, bud.