"Experts" say and think the same as Mecca...

[missinDThomas]

about Sanchez.

Every Monday, Arrowhead Addict editor/lead writer Adam Best will kick off the week with his AA Greeting — his one-of-a-kind POV on all things Chiefs.

What is this gibberish I’m reading around Chiefs Nation that Mark Sanchez didn’t fare well at the combine. Really? What are my fellow Red-and-Golders smoking?

Today, Scout Inc.’s Todd McShay — who’s Gus Johnson to Mel Kiper’s Dick Vitale — raved about Sanchez, especially his confidence, ability to break down film and intangibles. In fact, McShay talked about the “it” factor. You know, the one I’ve been saying that Sanchez has and Matt Stafford doesn’t for weeks now. Well, apparently quite a few of the personnel folks he talked to agree with me. He even said that there is some movement from Stafford to Sanchez as to who the No. 1 quarterback is.

SportingNews.com’s Russ Lande said:

Southern Cal’s Mark Sanchez helped himself in passing drills and tests. He showed a quick, compact delivery and release. He drove into his passes and the ball exploded out of his hand. His throws had good velocity and a tight, clean spiral. With Georgia’s Matthew Stafford choosing not to throw, Sanchez proved their competition to be the draft’s top quarterback is far from over. Teams were impressed that Sanchez decided to throw and did not look nervous or anxious.

ESPN’s John Clayton:

A ball of nervous energy, USC QB Mark Sanchez had a good throwing performance Sunday at the combine.

After scouring the Interwebs and watching the combine since it kicked off, it seems like most, if not everyone, has been pretty damn impressed by the kid I’ve taken to calling Dirty. So, Don Banks wasn’t impressed. No offense, Don, but after reading your stuff over the years, I’m not so sure Tyra Banks doesn’t know more about the NFL than you do.

Then there’s the fervor behind the Tyler Thigpen movement. Dammit! I just wish Chiefs fans didn’t let their wishful thinking cloud their judgment so much. That’s called being a homer.

But call me Brian Wilson, because for a while there even I was singing “Wouldn’t It Be Nice.” You know, as in wouldn’t it be nice if some seventh-round, third-string quarterback who once got cut by the effin’ Vikings miraculously became our franchise quarterback? But as the season progressed and Thigpen lost game after game, almost never playing well during crunch time, I soured on him. Hey, Tony Gonzalez has carried the jocks of a lot of pedestrian quarterbacks during his tight end reign of terror. This is just another one for us to add to the list.

I also have seen numerous Chiefs fans — not just on this site either — trying to sell that Thigpen’s as good as Matt Cassel. Keep telling yourself that and maybe, just maybe, one day you’ll really believe it.

The reasoning behind this is always that Randy Moss and Wes Welker blow away what we have. Really? I mean, Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez, the best tight end of all time, aren’t a couple of scrubs. Oh, and only one of these guys made the Pro Bowl this year — Tony G. Sure, Cassel’s offensive line was better, but what about his backs? Kevin Faulk and a bunch of punks and nobodies? BenJarvus Green-Ellis? That sounds like a disease, man. Meanwhile, we had Jamal Charles and Larry Johnson for most of the season. I really don’t think Cassel was at that much of an advantage, especially when you consider that he had to deal with things like actual expectations and pressure, not to mention playing in a much, much better division.The AFC West was garbage last year, especially defensively.

Sorry, but Thigpen is just not in Cassel’s league.

Just read what Peter King had to say about Cassel today, from SI.com:

I’m surprised that a quarterback who played as well as Cassel did for the last 10 weeks of the season is being viewed by most people in the league as too risky to chart a long-term course with. It’s not often in free agency or in trade that a young quarterback with promise is available. And while I understand it’s a millstone around Cassel that he’d require probably two fairly high picks plus an average of $14 million-ish a year in a contract, I still think I’d rather have Cassel as my quarterback of the future than, say, Matthew Stafford. And the money’s not that much different.

Cassel is the real deal, folks. I don’t think anybody would be writing that about Thigpen if he was franchised or even a free agent right now. Then again, I can’t ever see a QB of his caliber being franchised.

Another thing I keep reading over and over and over again is shock that anybody at all is discussing the Chiefs picking or trading for a quarterback with Thigpen in the fold. Wake up, people! If you don’t have a very good quarterback, then you don’t have a quarterback at all. Period. Considering that quarterback is the single most important position in the NFL and we don’t have a good one, yeah, it’s going to be a top priority. Probably the priority. You can have all the Aaron Currys in the world running amok, but if you have a hack quarterback it won’t make any difference.

Am I being hard on Thigpen? No. Not at all. He had a prolonged audition that he never really earned before being thrust into the starting line-up. Our offense was 26th in the league in scoring. Our defense was 29th in points allowed, which means that we had to be aggressive on offense to try and keep pace. Suddenly, the ArrowSpread and Thiggy don’t look so hot any longer. Then you throw in his completion percentage, and it’s not looking good for Thigpen.

It’s never personal. I was hard on Brodie Croyle because I didn’t see him ever being a winning quarterback. He had a lot of starts, and could never win a game. Meanwhile, Thigpen has now had a good chunk of starts, too, and the only game he has won was that freebie up in Oakland. And that game was definitely a freebie. I know — I was there!

I really don’t care if all of Chiefs Nation agrees with me on this one. When it comes to quarterbacks, my track record — Brodie Croyle, Matt Ryan, etc… — speaks for itself. I am confident that Thigpen will not be our quarterback of the future. Very confident.

I also don’t think that there is any way men like Todd Haley and Scott Pioli are going to hedge their careers on Thiggy Smalls. Just writing that makes me feel a little ridiculous, actually. In case you forgot, the Herm Edwards era is over. The Pioli Trinity will bring someone in to at least compete with him. I guaran-damn-tee you that. If he wins the job, hey, more power to him. That would be a dream come true for me, as I’ve been waiting my whole life for the Chiefs to find a young franchise QB. I just can’t see it. Sorry.

The other thing I keep reading that irks me is this Aaron Curry is the “safe” pick, the “safest pick in the draft.” Makes me want to puke. Hey, the kid has a great story and is a phenomenal athlete. But he’s a middle freakin’ linebacker in a year when linebackers seem to be miraculously raining from the sky like frogs or something! Let’s get serious here. Is Chiefs Nation still so haunted by the ghost of Todd Blackhedge that we remain scared you-know-what-less when it comes to drafting or trading for a promising young quarterback.

What was that expression? Scared money don’t make money. I’m confident that The Pioli Trilogy realizes that. They aren’t going to allow the ghosts of Chiefs’ past or any wishful thinking to lead them down the wrong path.

Me? I don’t call the shots, but I’m liking Cassel and Sanchez more and more every single day (I still like Michael Crabtree as well, by the way). Hopefully, the Chiefs are, too, because these kids have the chops to become star quarterbacks in this league under the right guidance (ahem, Todd Haley).

P.S. - With free agency around the corner, and us almost certainly moving to a 3-4, I’m thinking these will be my top candidates when I drop my free agency post later this week, which will probably be another Blueprint…

ILB Bart Scott
DE Chris Canty
OT Khalif Barnes
Lance Moore is also a guy who’s very, very intriguing to me. I think he could become a star in Haley’s system.

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by missinDThomas

Seriously. The guy tried playing in NFL Europe after washing out of the NFL and couldn't even learn the plays there.

[Mark M]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Is this the only example? Are there others?

How the **** are people freaking out about what appears to be an unbelievably small sample size?

Um ... not sure who is freaking out (well, at least not on this thread ). I was just curious as to how many other QBs with so few starts were drafted that high, and though there'd be at least a few.

And it's not just a small sample size, but not a great comparison, either, since Akili was actually a few hammers short of a full box.



Again, I'm not against the Chiefs picking Sanchez -- I'd prefer him over Stafford -- but wanted to see where other QBs with similar experience were drafted. I also might have to do some digging tonight to see what other QBs with that few starts did once in the NFL no matter of draft position. Although I'm betting someone else around here has already done so ...

MM
~~

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by Mark M

Um ... not sure who is freaking out (well, at least not on this thread ). I was just curious as to how many other QBs with so few starts were drafted that high, and though there'd be at least a few.

And it's not just a small sample size, but not a great comparison, either, since Akili was actually a few hammers short of a full box.



Again, I'm not against the Chiefs picking Sanchez -- I'd prefer him over Stafford -- but wanted to see where other QBs with similar experience were drafted. I also might have to do some digging tonight to see what other QBs with that few starts did once in the NFL no matter of draft position. Although I'm betting someone else around here has already done so ...

MM
~~

Sorry, my response wasn't directed at anyone in particular.

It's just that this is the recurring criticism/question surrounding Sanchez, and there simply aren't many players we can compare him to in this regard. Akili Smith has become the default answer, as if it ****ing means anything.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by arc

Who played in a spread offense and was dumber than a box of hammers.

Nice.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by Mark M

Again, I'm not against the Chiefs picking Sanchez -- I'd prefer him over Stafford -- but wanted to see where other QBs with similar experience were drafted. I also might have to do some digging tonight to see what other QBs with that few starts did once in the NFL no matter of draft position. Although I'm betting someone else around here has already done so ...

MM
~~

I think Akili is the only guy taken in the top 5 with such few starts.

First round QBs with less than 30 starts and their completion %:


Ryan Leaf Wash. St. 1998 24 53%
Joey Harrington Oregon 2002 26 55%
Mike Vick VT 2001 21 56%
JP Losman Tulane 2004 29 57%
Akili Smith Oregon 1999 11 58%
Tim Couch Kentucky 1999 27 67%
Alex Smith Utah 2005 22 66%
David Carr Fresno St. 2002 26 62%
Drew Brees Purdue 2001 26 61%

[Mark M]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Sorry, my response wasn't directed at anyone in particular.

Not a problem.

It's just that this is the recurring criticism/question surrounding Sanchez, and there simply aren't many players we can compare him to in this regard. Akili Smith has become the default answer, as if it ****ing means anything.

That's why I asked -- I had no clue how many (if any) had been drafted. If Akili's all there is, then ... well, one has to wonder if there's a reason for that, or if it's even a valid comparison (I say a bit on the former, and no on the latter).

To be honest, I think Pioli will do everything he can to trade down and get more picks due to the sheer number of needs on the team, meaning that the only way KC takes Sanchez is if Haley is absolutely certain he's the guy to run the offense.

Personally, I'd be perfectly okay with Sanchez. I just don't think KC will pick him.

MM
~~

[Mark M]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

I think Akili is the only guy taken in the top 5 with such few starts.

First round QBs with less than 30 starts and their completion %:


Ryan Leaf Wash. St. 1998 24 53%
Joey Harrington Oregon 2002 26 55%
Mike Vick VT 2001 21 56%
JP Losman Tulane 2004 29 57%
Akili Smith Oregon 1999 11 58%
Tim Couch Kentucky 1999 27 67%
Alex Smith Utah 2005 22 66%
David Carr Fresno St. 2002 26 62%
Drew Brees Purdue 2001 26 61%

Interesting ...

MM
~~

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by Mark M

Um ... not sure who is freaking out (well, at least not on this thread ). I was just curious as to how many other QBs with so few starts were drafted that high, and though there'd be at least a few.

And it's not just a small sample size, but not a great comparison, either, since Akili was actually a few hammers short of a full box.



Again, I'm not against the Chiefs picking Sanchez -- I'd prefer him over Stafford -- but wanted to see where other QBs with similar experience were drafted. I also might have to do some digging tonight to see what other QBs with that few starts did once in the NFL no matter of draft position. Although I'm betting someone else around here has already done so ...

MM
~~

I just passed your inquiry to my statistician across the hall. He loves him some number crunching, so we should get something back before the day is out.

[Mark M]

Originally Posted by Darth CarlSatan

I just passed your inquiry to my statistician across the hall. He loves him some number crunching, so we should get something back before the day is out.

Hop he cane get passed the speling eras ...



I really need to remember to use Firefox and its spell check feature, and not IE and its lack of one, when posting here.

MM
~~

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Ryan Leaf Wash. St. 1998 24 53%
Joey Harrington Oregon 2002 26 55%
Mike Vick VT 2001 21 56%
JP Losman Tulane 2004 29 57%
Akili Smith Oregon 1999 11 58%
Tim Couch Kentucky 1999 27 67%
Alex Smith Utah 2005 22 66%
David Carr Fresno St. 2002 26 62%
Drew Brees Purdue 2001 26 61%

So we start with a relatively small sample size, and now we need to think about the type of system these players ran in college. Not a lot of pro-style offenses on that list, which is critical in making a comparison to Sanchez.

In sum, we don't know much.

Though it is worth noting the relative rarity of QB's coming out with limited starts. In that same breath, the players on this list are all pretty recent, so this is suggesting a trend...

[soundmind]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

I think Akili is the only guy taken in the top 5 with such few starts.

First round QBs with less than 30 starts and their completion %:


Ryan Leaf Wash. St. 1998 24 53%
Joey Harrington Oregon 2002 26 55%
Mike Vick VT 2001 21 56%
JP Losman Tulane 2004 29 57%
Akili Smith Oregon 1999 11 58%
Tim Couch Kentucky 1999 27 67%
Alex Smith Utah 2005 22 66%
David Carr Fresno St. 2002 26 62%
Drew Brees Purdue 2001 26 61%

Wow, I find it hard to lean on stats when considering something like this, but 1 in 9 is pretty telling. And I'm not sure how many folks would have pegged Brees either...

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

So we start with a relatively small sample size, and now we need to think about the type of system these players ran in college. Not a lot of pro-style offenses on that list, which is critical in making a comparison to Sanchez.

In sum, we don't know much.

Though it is worth noting the relative rarity of QB's coming out with limited starts. In that same breath, the players on this list are all pretty recent, so this is suggesting a trend...

Those are first rounders. I'm sure you can find later round picks with less than 30 starts.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by soundmind

Wow, I find it hard to lean on stats when considering something like this, but 1 in 9 is pretty telling. And I'm not sure how many folks would have pegged Brees either...

What you can tell is that GM's don't like drafting QB's with only 1 year of starter experience in the first round. Even two year starters drafted in the first round struggle if asked to play in their first or second year in the NFL.

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Those are first rounders. I'm sure you can find later round picks with less than 30 starts.

You'd almost have to stick with this list, though, because these were the players who, coming out, were thought to have first-round talent. So ostensibly they are the most comparable to Sanchez on this level.

Brees wasn't a first rounder, of course, so the list narrows a little.

[Mark M]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

So we start with a relatively small sample size, and now we need to think about the type of system these players ran in college. Not a lot of pro-style offenses on that list, which is critical in making a comparison to Sanchez.

In sum, we don't know much.

Though it is worth noting the relative rarity of QB's coming out with limited starts. In that same breath, the players on this list are all pretty recent, so this is suggesting a trend...

Summed up my take really well.

I initially thought that the trend of doing this had more to do with players coming out early than anything, but not sure that's the proper analysis -- Harrington, Losman, Carr, and Brees all played into their senior years, Smith earned his degree in two years, and the rest came out early. So not sure that's enough info to say early entry into the draft is the reason.

The better way to tell if Sanchez will do well, no matter where he's picked, would be to look at the entire draft. But even then, things like schemes, contract issues, the team that drafted the player, etc., are all so integral that not sure much could be gleaned from such an analysis.

It does give one a greater appreciation for what it takes to effectively draft college players ...

MM
~~