***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Donger

How could they not have made some assumption? Social distancing is one of the most important mitigation efforts used to fight this thing. That doesn't make any sense to me.

As to your question, I presume because they either didn't have this 90% compliance revision on 4/1, or did and simply hadn't run the model with that revised percentage. It doesn't have to be nefarious. You seem to think it is. What's the motivation for them to do so?

The same thing that motivates bad reporting.

Being first and the attention it offers.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The part I don't get that I still keep hearing "it's coming...". The virus has hit every freaking state already. Kansas has been locked down just as long as NY has. CA was locked down before NY, etc., etc. NY\NJ are skewing the numbers tremendously and for obvious reasons for the most part. But what I don't get is people saying to the "rest of the country" that just wait, "it's coming" meaning the numbers in other states are going to spike. Like it's some sort of insect making it's way across the country. Or some army marching along.

When I hear people say that it makes me wonder if they realize all the other states for the most part are already taking steps to mitigate? So if the virus is already in Kansas and Kansas has been taken mitigation steps for going on 3 weeks now you have to ask yourself, if the worst is still yet to come then WTF did we lock down for the last 3 weeks? Kinda comes off like "psyche! It wasn't your turn yet!"

If it plays out that way, I think we should just be happy that the worst didn't come.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The same thing that motivates bad reporting.

Being first and the attention it offers.

I guess I'm no way near as jaded as you. These aren't reporters. They are doctors and number crunchers, right?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

If it plays out that way, I think we should just be happy that the worst didn't come.

I don't disagree. What I am questioning though it the statement in and of itself.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Donger

I guess I'm no way near as jaded as you. These aren't reporters. They are doctors and number crunchers, right?

They're academics, which makes them politicians with degrees.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

They're academics, which makes them politicians with degrees.

Alrighty then.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I don't disagree. What I am questioning though it the statement in and of itself.

Ah, I gotcha. I suppose it seemed like a safe assumption with the nature of the virus and what we have seen it do in other places.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by Donger

Alrighty then.

Exactly. A vague statement with no meaning that is also impossible to disprove. Alas, we are getting political now. I won't comment more.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

Ah, I gotcha. I suppose it seemed like a safe assumption with the nature of the virus and what we have seen it do in other places.

Well I mean it just like...it's in NY now but you just wait, it's going to come to you too. It's like it's already here and for some reason NY HAS to peak before anyone else can or something.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Donger

I guess I'm no way near as jaded as you. These aren't reporters. They are doctors and number crunchers, right?

I agree

You'd have to be an idiot to think our medical experts are sensationalizing his for attention.

[Donger]

Looks like we'll end up with ~29,000 new cases today. Close to 2,000 deaths. We knew this was coming, but damn, that's a lot of people. We lost 2,400 Americans at Pearl Harbor.

[KS Smitty]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The part I don't get that I still keep hearing "it's coming...". The virus has hit every freaking state already. Kansas has been locked down just as long as NY has. CA was locked down before NY, etc., etc. NY\NJ are skewing the numbers tremendously and for obvious reasons for the most part. But what I don't get is people saying to the "rest of the country" that just wait, "it's coming" meaning the numbers in other states are going to spike. Like it's some sort of insect making it's way across the country. Or some army marching along.

When I hear people say that it makes me wonder if they realize all the other states for the most part are already taking steps to mitigate? So if the virus is already in Kansas and Kansas has been taken mitigation steps for going on 3 weeks now you have to ask yourself, if the worst is still yet to come then WTF did we lock down for the last 3 weeks? Kinda comes off like "psyche! It wasn't your turn yet!"

Kansas the government may have taken steps 3 weeks ago but I can tell you for a fact that the people in the Manhattan area only started taking it seriously this week. No slowdown of travel, little to no social distancing, no protective gear nada. This week a person tested positive that had been to a local grocery store and Walmart and some people are wearing masks now but they sure as hell aren't staying home. Most cases were travel related but now community spread is happening and most folks are more concerned.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by KS Smitty

Kansas the government may have taken steps 3 weeks ago but I can tell you for a fact that the people in the Manhattan area only started taking it seriously this week. No slowdown of travel, little to no social distancing, no protective gear nada. This week a person tested positive that had been to a local grocery store and Walmart and some people are wearing masks now but they sure as hell aren't staying home. Most cases were travel related but now community spread is happening and most folks are more concerned.

It's like this in St Joe too. I've lost track of time so I don't remember exactly when the shelter in place order was issued, but I think it was about 2 weeks ago?

Nothing around town has really changed.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Well I mean it just like...it's in NY now but you just wait, it's going to come to you too. It's like it's already here and for some reason NY HAS to peak before anyone else can or something.

Some people like to make bold predictions just so they can say they were right if it happened that way. Some just want to freak out over anything...and here's the perfect thing for them. Some have other agendas...ifyouknowhatImean. And who knows, it still could. It's not over with yet. Doesn't seem worth obsessing over either way.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by TLO

Dr. Fauci just said there was a large disparity in covid impacting black people, as they tend to have higher numbers of things such as diabetes, heart disease, etc. There seems to be other factors at play here too that they are investigating.

The president mentioned a rate of "3x to 4x". Unsure of what he's referencing.

They are 3-4x more likely to die compared to their share of the population.