Jones vs. 1st Rounder + $20m

[DaFace]

Obviously this is going to be a key discussion this offseason. On The Athletic's podcast (Time's Ours), Nate Taylor said that he's heard that there are multiple teams out there who would give us a 1st round pick for Jones (assuming we tag and trade him), and possibly more than that.

So just to lay out a simplified version of the options:

Option 1:
Chris Jones (probably around $20m per year)

Option 2:
1st round draft pick (cheap for 4-5 years)
$20m worth of other players

For context on how much other players might cost based on recent free agents we've signed:
Clark - $21m
Mathieu - $14m
Hitchens - $9m
Schwartz - $8m
Okafor - $6m

So...which way do we go?

[OKchiefs]

Now that we’ve already won a super bowl I personally feel less desperate to have to run out there in 2020 and win it again. Of course it would be nice to win again in 2020 and I hope it happens, but I’m more concerned now with maintaining the long term health of the roster. Instead of trying to load up again in 2020 at the expense of potential future talent and depth, I’d rather make the moves needed to stockpile talent/depth long term. So as much as I’d love to have Chris Jones, unless he takes $15 million a year I don’t see how you can sink $40 million+ a year into two players on the DL. Assuming we can capitalize on the draft capital and not take another Breeland Speaks, adding a 1st and 3rd and maybe even trading out of our current 1st round pick for additional picks gives us a lot of ammunition to fill out the roster. We already haven’t had a 1st round pick since 2017 and we have a lot of free agents, leaving us in a position where the depth and/or talent on the roster at certain positions could become perilously thin. Going from a single pick in rounds 1, 2, & 3 to a 1st, two 2nd, two 3rd, two 4th, etc. plus the cap savings from not adding a $20 million a year contract that can be spread among several positions/players IMO helps more in the long run than a single player not named Mahomes.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

FWIW, Louis Riddick said on ESPN today that Jones was a guy that the Chiefs were “desperately trying to re-sign” right now.

Also said if he did somehow hit the market, he should be maybe the top free agent on the market for teams to go after.

[The Franchise]

I’ve come to the conclusion that you pay Chris Jones. Dude is ****ing 25 and just hitting his peak. You don’t let those players go. We need to stop acting like we can’t afford it. There are ways to maneuver the cap. Dude was a trooper and showed up to camp because Veach told him that he would work on a new deal. Jones held up his end of the deal....now you pay the man.

[saphojunkie]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I mean, that’s a little hyperbolic.

The value of an elite pass rusher - which I think we all agree Jones is, and a unique one at that - is a lot higher than the value of an elite interior OL.

Nelson is a monster, but he’s still an interior guy. Guys like Jones are harder to find and offer more value over an “adequate” or “good” player when compared to a G.

Fair point. I guess here's the problem with my logic:

There are only a handful of interior beasts who rush the passer. Having an OG who can shut that down will only matter in 3-4 games, if that, barring injury.

Whereas if you HAVE one of those beasts, you have that value in 19 games, barring injury.

So, there's the disconnect. I get it.

But, if you gave me the option of sacking the other team's QB or never having Mahomes sacked, I'll keep Mahomes upright. If we had a "no sack" game in the playoffs, I'm betting HARD on Mahomes winning that shootout.

[mcaj22]

as someone who hated the contracts of Berry, Houston, Maclin,Tamba and DJ extensions, etc... I still say you keep Jones and cut whatever bums equal in cap value. (Watkins, LDT Sorenson, whomever.) No matter what combo of players you assemble with that 20 million, they wont be close to Chris Jones.

[Hoover]

Forget Pat and Gracie, she needs to starting Jones so he takes a team friendly deal!

[saphojunkie]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

The goal is to repeat and Jones cap hit won't be $20M this year. Clark's cap hit this past season was $6.5 so I would expect Jones's cap number to be fairly low the first 2 years then go up exponentially after that. But by that time the new CBA and TV deals will be done.

I can't believe people are so willingly to let home grown elite talent get away.

I don't want to go into cap hell in two years, either. And trading your player for high picks is not letting them get away. It's using your capital wisely to better your team.

I don't think people realize how close the offensive line is to falling off the cliff. Chris Jones is an absolute beast, and I love him, but it's just irresponsible to have two players on the DL making $100M. That's thinking with your heart and not your mind.

There's a chance it happens, but were I GM it'd be the last option just before letting him walk for nothing but a comp pick.

[Chief Roundup]

So since the CBA is expiring and it is common knowledge, belief, that the cap will go up dramatically after that and that there might be a separate provisioned area for QBs, we should be able to pay Jones and Mahomes.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by saphojunkie

And trading your player for high picks is not letting them get away. It's using your capital wisely to better your team.

If those player/players that you draft work out, which generally doesn't happen right away and in lots of cases doesn't happen at all.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

So since the CBA is expiring and it is common knowledge, belief, that the cap will go up dramatically after that and that there might be a separate provisioned area for QBs, we should be able to pay Jones and Mahomes.

The problem is that it's not GUARANTEED that it will go up dramatically, so it's hard to give out huge contracts with the possibility it could hamstring us.

But then, that's also why these discussions are hard - we just don't know the constraints.

[saphojunkie]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

I’ve come to the conclusion that you pay Chris Jones. Dude is ****ing 25 and just hitting his peak. You don’t let those players go. We need to stop acting like we can’t afford it. There are ways to maneuver the cap. Dude was a trooper and showed up to camp because Veach told him that he would work on a new deal. Jones held up his end of the deal....now you pay the man.

This reasoning is emotional, and therefor I do not trust it.

I know you all WANT to keep Jones, and it might happen. If it does, great. I will be happy to cheer for him. But make no mistake, it is not the most prudent move.

In a game massively affected by injury, you are tying a TON of capital up in the health of one man. If you trade for a 1st and two 3rds (a la Jared Allen), plus have $15M to spend on free agents (after paying your new 1st rounder), then you might potentially have 5 or 6 players who can START for this team. That is a significant diversification of risk, as well as a significant diversification of potential.

If you sign Jones, you are guaranteed one elite player. If you trade him, you have the potential to have an elite player at multiple positions.

[mnchiefsguy]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Picks 1-15 and another pick? Deal.
Picks 16-32 and another pick? I’m interested but I’d have to see.
2nd rounder and lower? Get ****ed.

This obviously entails us not trading him to the Raiders, Broncos, Chargers or Patriots. I would prefer an NFC team or a bottom tier team like the Dolphins.

Yep.

[saphojunkie]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

If those player/players that you draft work out, which generally doesn't happen right away and in lots of cases doesn't happen at all.

Kelce
Hill
Hunt
Jones
Thornhill
Hardman

All of those worked out, and none of them were even first rounders. In a vacuum, you're right. But this isn't in a vacuum. This regime has shown a consistent ability to identify, acquire, and develop talent.

Those are just the elite players, much less the guys like Chavarious Ward, Breeland, LDT, Mitchell Schwartz, Mike Pennel... guys that were identified and brought in to surprising success.

I know the response is going to be "exactly! Sign Jones and find those guys!" Okay, great.. but you're applying the same logic as me: trust that Veach will identify talent and bring them in while making the cap work. I just have MORE faith in his ability to do that with multiple day 1 and 2 picks, as well as financial flexibility. I want Veach to have more capital, not less.

[BossChief]

The OL could use a couple upgrades, but they are a top 10 OL as it sits right now by just re-signing Wis. I could see them using a pick on a center, but that’s about it.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Hoover

Forget Pat and Gracie, she needs to starting Jones so he takes a team friendly deal!

?