***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by nychief

2.3 in wuhan... under that elsewhere. Keep in mind, while 2 percent sounds small, it'd be 7 million americans.

2% would be a HUGE deal.

There's no way it's 2%.

[Mennonite]

Originally Posted by TLO

There's a 2% mortality rate?

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I get that, but if we're to that point, 2 weeks isn't going to cut it.

Probably right. Better make it two years. And a concrete survival bunker just to be sure.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Mennonite

I have no idea what this means.

[Mennonite]

It works on many levels.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by TLO

2% would be a HUGE deal.

There's no way it's 2%.

It is likely lower. Many mild cases were probably missed or under reported. So the actual rate is lower.

But keeping the death rate down depends on giving the sickest individuals very intensive care.

If you don't like the idea of putting entire cities under house arrest like China did, the virus might spread quick enough to overwhelm hospitals and cause the deaths of individuals who otherwise could have been saved.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

If it appears everywhere in the USA. I'd bet money on its spread will be placed on those health care workers that processed the 34 Americans infected with the virus on the cruise ship without proper equipment. Yeah, they were asymptomatic when they got on those flights but, we knew at the time that they didn't have the right equipment and there was a 10 day incubation period.

How that was handled sounds pretty dumb. But I think we are past the point of their being a single entry point.

It is in Japan and South Korea. It is in Italy and the middle East. It will no doubt get into the USA from multiple sources.

[nychief]

This is a good summary, for the pod listeners.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aH...EegQIBhAG&ep=6

[TLO]

Originally Posted by nychief

This is a good summary, for the pod listeners.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aH...EegQIBhAG&ep=6

Can you give us the cliff notes?

[wazu]

Originally Posted by TLO

Can you give us the cliff notes?

Pretty grim. Long time health reporter who covers pandemics is saying this looks similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918. Saying if that is accurate everybody will at least know somebody who dies from it. The virus seems to be about as "transmissable" as the flu.

He says for reasons unknown, children seem to be less likely to contract this disease. Most people who are hospitalized are 30+. The older you are, the more likely you are to die. Elderly chinese men make up majority of fatalities. In China a lot of men are smokers, and smokers over 50 pretty much have crappy lungs so very susceptible.

One possibility is disease will go away for the summer, but hit U.S. in a big wave this fall. (Which happened in 1918.) Also notes that all of the medical advances with tamiflu and ventilators and such have been used in China, but people still die even with modern medicine doing all it can.

Right now they are testing a bunch of anti-viral drugs, no effective treatment known yet. A vaccine will take a year to produce.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by wazu

Pretty grim. Long time health reporter who covers pandemics is saying this looks similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918. Saying if that is accurate everybody will at least know somebody who dies from it. The virus seems to be about as "transmissable" as the flu.

He says for reasons unknown, children seem to be less likely to contract this disease. Most people who are hospitalized are 30+. The older you are, the more likely you are to die. Elderly chinese men make up majority of fatalities. In China a lot of men are smokers, and smokers over 50 pretty much have crappy lungs so very susceptible.

One possibility is disease will go away for the summer, but hit U.S. in a big wave this fall. (Which happened in 1918.) Also notes that all of the medical advances with tamiflu and ventilators and such have been used in China, but people still die even with modern medicine doing all it can.

Right now they are testing a bunch of anti-viral drugs, no effective treatment known yet. A vaccine will take a year to produce.

Yeah I just took the time to listen to it. The guy seems a bit doom and gloom on the whole thing. I'll be interested to see how effective the antiviral trials turn out.

I'm also trying to keep an eye on the vaccine being developed in Isreal. They believe they will have a vaccine ready to roll in less than 3 months now.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost....s-vaccine/amp/

I'm assuming that means it goes through all the trials and everything else and is ready to start being produced in 90 days.

I hope everything goes well for them in development and testing.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by TLO

Yeah I just took the time to listen to it. The guy seems a bit doom and gloom on the whole thing. I'll be interested to see how effective the antiviral trials turn out.

I'm also trying to keep an eye on the vaccine being developed in Isreal. They believe they will have a vaccine ready to roll in less than 3 months now.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost....s-vaccine/amp/

I'm assuming that means it goes through all the trials and everything else and is ready to start being produced in 90 days.

I hope everything goes well for them in development and testing.

His comments about rushing a vaccine gave me pause. The only year I have ever gotten the flu was the only year I ever got a flu shot. Small sample size, but the coincidence was bizarre enough that I never got a flu shot again. Guess that makes me a crazed anti-vaxxer in today's terms.

[KChiefs1]

I’ve heard experts comparing it to the Swine Flu from about 10 years ago.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

I’ve heard experts comparing it to the Swine Flu from about 10 years ago.

Which was actually the same virus as the Spanish Flu of 1918.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

I’ve heard experts comparing it to the Swine Flu from about 10 years ago.

Do you have a link by chance?