***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

While looking down at you from Mount Stupid.

Heh...I've never seen the first peak labelled as "mount stupid".


I need to print this out for work.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

I don't understand how this is possible when these places have already been locked down for a month? Are we just seeing a more gradual climb to the peak as opposed to other areas in the country?

It is a fair point. I am just using the IHME model which one of the downsides of it is it only takes in account what the individual state decides not the cities. So since MO was one of the last to lockdown it means the longer the peak will take to get here.

That is why I would like to see the model MO is using.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

I think that NY runs on a 24 hour period which ends around noon EDT.

To elaborate, for whatever reason they went to once a day reporting and it seems like the number and time that is getting reported in coinciding with the number and time Cuomo is giving in his daily presser.

[Donger]

606 people died in New York on Wednesday, governor says

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said 606 people died in the state on Wednesday.

[limested]

Originally Posted by petegz28

To elaborate, for whatever reason they wen tot once a day reporting and it seems like the number and time that is getting reported in coinciding with the number and time Cuomo is giving in his daily presser.

Looking at their data they post to git the they are using 4PM Eastern as their 'official' time.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by petegz28

To elaborate, for whatever reason they went to once a day reporting and it seems like the number and time that is getting reported in coinciding with the number and time Cuomo is giving in his daily presser.

Originally Posted by Donger

606 people died in New York on Wednesday, governor says

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said 606 people died in the state on Wednesday.

You don't say?

Scary times when you and I are on the same page this much

[TinyEvel]

Took this pic at CVS yesterday to help demonstrate safe social distancing. You're welcome.

[petegz28]

So, as I speculated and Donger has appeared to confirm, the numbers coming out of NY that are being reported are a day behind.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by TLO

I don't understand how this is possible when these places have already been locked down for a month? Are we just seeing a more gradual climb to the peak as opposed to other areas in the country?

I literally haven't left my home since March 17th.

But in speaking with friends who are in essential businesses, it sounds like not nearly as many people are obeying the stay at home order as you'd hope/expect.

My best friend's son works at a local grocery chain, and he's floored by how few people come into the store without a mask on, how many people are touching things and putting them back on shelves, and how some continue to ignore the distancing guidelines.

TLDR? There are still a TON of idiots going about their business that think this is all overblown.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

My best friend's son works at a local grocery chain, and he's floored by how few people come into the store without a mask on, how many people are touching things and putting them back on shelves, and how some continue to ignore the distancing guidelines.

TLDR? There are still a TON of idiots going about their business that think this is all overblown.

How dare they buy food!

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

NY in with 606 new deaths. That is a substantial drop from the last 2 days.

Yes it is

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by loochy

How dare they buy food!

You're a smart guy, I'm sure you understand that you can buy food while still following guidelines.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Donger

606 people died in New York on Wednesday, governor says

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said 606 people died in the state on Wednesday.

Great news.

Definitely time to start easing social distancing restrictions so Americans can get back to work and we can get the economy back up and running.

Just have to be extremely cautious of course.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So, as I speculated and Donger has appeared to confirm, the numbers coming out of NY that are being reported are a day behind.

Well I was with you on the NY only reporting once a day until I looked again at yesterday’s numbers.

It sat under 800 all day and now is at over 1k so it definitely changed at some point throughout the day. Not saying that’s going to be an every day thing though. Just pointing it out

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by loochy

Heh...I've never seen the first peak labelled as "mount stupid".


I need to print this out for work.

This one is better, actually... "Valley of Despair".