***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

According to IHME, IL was past it's peak by a week until it updated today and now its tomorrow. Wouldn't plan my future arpimd the day to day change in the IHME model.

It's hard to tell, honestly. You'd think the more data that is gathered the more accurate it would be.

Still not putting a ton of stock into it.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

I'd prefer not getting deathly ill in the first place but I'm currently a beggar, not a chooser so I'll take it!

So for people who understand the drug approval process how many more trials or whatnot does it need to go through?

This is close to a Phase IIa study. The FDA has an expedited review process which I'm sure they'd invoke at warp speed for this while undergoing Phase III studies.

Efficacy has not yet been determined, and production to scale will take some time. This will be hard to get for the next several months.

[TLO]

Dr. Birx - not a US geography expert.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

It's hard to tell, honestly. You'd think the more data that is gathered the more accurate it would be.

Still not putting a ton of stock into it.

I'm starting to realize that, aside from changes in how the model itself works, another major issue is just that the data itself is really wonky. On the IHME site, they show Colorado as having reported 27 deaths yesterday, while our actual Department of Public Health shows...zero. I know they're doing the best they can, but all of this website scraping stuff that IHME, Covidly, Worldometers, John Hopkins, etc. are doing is really shaky in terms of reliability.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by TLO

It's hard to tell, honestly. You'd think the more data that is gathered the more accurate it would be.

Still not putting a ton of stock into it.

I'm sure they're modeling it the best they can with what they have. It's the predictive version of PFF though. One of many resources.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Covidly has Hawaii at an "8" and Alaska, Montana, Utah, Vermont, and (amazingly) Washington at a "7", so those are some pretty likely candidates.

Seems like they update their health score based on day-over-day percentage increase in cases. Do they provide any data on that which you could unpack?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Seems like they update their health score based on day-over-day percentage increase in cases. Do they provide any data on that which you could unpack?

This is how their health score works.

What is the health score?
The health score is a single metric to quickly assess the overall health of the country. The formula combines:

Case growth rate (50%)
Rate of new cases. Combination of daily % of cases as well as double derivative of cases.
Death growth rate (30%)
Rate of new deaths. Combination of daily % of deaths as well as double derivative of deaths.
Recovery (20%)
The progress towards recovery. Note that some countries do not provide accurate recovery data.

[BigRedChief]

Jacksonville Beach reopened 26 minutes ago. This is a live picture. pic.twitter.com/tC6voQ3BAn

— Travis Akers (@travisakers) April 17, 2020

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Jacksonville Beach reopened 26 minutes ago. This is a live picture. pic.twitter.com/tC6voQ3BAn

— Travis Akers (@travisakers) April 17, 2020

Welp.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Jacksonville Beach reopened 26 minutes ago. This is a live picture. pic.twitter.com/tC6voQ3BAn

— Travis Akers (@travisakers) April 17, 2020

Those people seem reasonably well spaced apart at least.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Seems like they update their health score based on day-over-day percentage increase in cases. Do they provide any data on that which you could unpack?

I'm not sure if they publish the exact thresholds they're using, but here's their description:



According to the little hover menus...

8 = "Virus is largely under control and the situation is stable. Recoveries are increasing."
7 = "Number of cases is growing slowly. In early stages, this could be due to a lack of testing. IN later stages, this could be a sign of slowing viral spread."

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by TLO

That's curious...

Originally Posted by Donger

No comment.

Originally Posted by TLO

Donger sez: "No comment"

non-political politic posts? That’s my thing.

/I kid. Not serious disclaimer.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

Welp.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Jacksonville Beach reopened 26 minutes ago. This is a live picture. pic.twitter.com/tC6voQ3BAn

— Travis Akers (@travisakers) April 17, 2020

Meh. As long as they follow the proximity guidelines, I don't see the issue. They ARE outside.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins