Chiefs 6-10 Team with Chase Daniel - Page 15

Prison Bitch · 12-28-2014, 05:15 PM

Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.

We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.

While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.

12-28-2014, 05:15 PM	Topic Starter
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	6-10 Team with Chase Daniel Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests. We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance. While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.
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