Royals *** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 *** - Page 157

duncan_idaho · 04-03-2016, 09:48 AM

And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

**DaneMcCloud** · 06-26-2016, 05:06 PM

And Cuthbert is only 23...

duncan_idaho · 06-26-2016, 05:42 PM

Re: Making an offseason trade for SP, i think that's a possibility but believe Moore would prefer to trade from minor league inventory than move a young player with many years of control who has proven himself at the majors (as Cuthbert is starting to - still a long ways to go, and 300 more ABs or so to see him take).

Whether KC is able to extend a player or two who will be a free agent after 2017 could also be a big factor in making a trade. Not that I believe they'd trade a guy because they couldn't extend him, just that if they sign Lorenzo Cain to a 5-year, $65 million deal or something like that, they'll likely backload some of it to free up space in 2017.

Cain, Duffy, and Moustakas are the only guys I could see working out a long-term deal of the 2017 guys. Escobar will be allowed to leave, same with Davis.

Cain because he is older and hasn't made a ton of money yet, so the security may encourage him to take a slightly smaller deal than he could get on the open market (if things go well and he has another strong season).

Duffy because he loves KC and because his up-and-down performances will likely prevent him from getting a huge deal in FA. He'd have to bet on having a pretty huge 2017 to avoid looking at an extension with KC.

And Moustakas because we've seen him go around Boras' advice to sign with KC before (when he was drafted). I think he loves it here and would be interested in staying.

I'd love to put Hosmer in that group and won't dismiss out-of-hand the odds of keeping him. They're against KC, but I think that average yearly salary ends up looking a lot more like Freddie Freeman's deal (somewhere in the low 20s, opt-out after three years, 7 years, $150-165 million seems like a decent guess).

That's not completely out of KC's range, it's just a matter of whether they can sustain this payroll and they find a way to offset some of the cost with cheaper alternatives at other positions.

For example, a 2018 IF of Hosmer, Merrifield, Mondesi and Cuthbert would feature one pre-arb guy (Mondesi), and two guys in their final pre-arbitration years (Cuthbert and Merrifield). Grand total of salary for the entire infield would likely still be under $30 million.

eDave · 06-26-2016, 05:48 PM

Trading our future to win now is dumb. Ride it out.

Prison Bitch · 06-26-2016, 06:00 PM

I looked at Rookie hitters age 23 since the expansion era 1969-. Of the 363 qualifiers, Cuth is at the edge of the upper 1/3 in wRC+. But that's only half of it: the vast majority of them became regulars with decent if not excellent careers, because being a qualified hitter at 23 isn't very common.

I would trade Moose for a Wacha type in a heartbeat. Since hitting has been so tough to come by, we ought to be able to get good value for Moose.

big nasty kcnut · 06-26-2016, 06:02 PM

I predict we will win the central. By 4 games or more.

duncan_idaho · 06-26-2016, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I looked at Rookie hitters age 23 since the expansion era 1969-. Of the 363 qualifiers, Cuth is at the edge of the upper 1/3 in wRC+. But that's only half of it: the vast majority of them became regulars with decent if not excellent careers, because being a qualified hitter at 23 isn't very common.

I would trade Moose for a Wacha type in a heartbeat. Since hitting has been so tough to come by, we ought to be able to get good value for Moose.

By "Wacha-type," I hope you mean someone better than Michael Wacha.

Wacha is OK, but he's really a two-pitch guy and has an injury history/bad shoulder. I don't think he'd more of a difference maker for the 2017 Royals than Moustakas.

Why Not? · 06-26-2016, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

By "Wacha-type," I hope you mean someone better than Michael Wacha.

Wacha is OK, but he's really a two-pitch guy and has an injury history/bad shoulder. I don't think he'd more of a difference maker for the 2017 Royals than Moustakas.

This.

Why Not? · 06-26-2016, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by big nasty kcnut

I predict we will win the central. By 4 games or more.

It would help if some other teams could ever beat the Indians.

BigCatDaddy · 06-26-2016, 07:30 PM

Good info Duncan. Thanks!

ChiefsCountry · 06-26-2016, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Why Not?

It would help if some other teams could ever beat the Indians.

Good thing we play them alot.

**petegz28** · 06-26-2016, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Re: Making an offseason trade for SP, i think that's a possibility but believe Moore would prefer to trade from minor league inventory than move a young player with many years of control who has proven himself at the majors (as Cuthbert is starting to - still a long ways to go, and 300 more ABs or so to see him take).

Whether KC is able to extend a player or two who will be a free agent after 2017 could also be a big factor in making a trade. Not that I believe they'd trade a guy because they couldn't extend him, just that if they sign Lorenzo Cain to a 5-year, $65 million deal or something like that, they'll likely backload some of it to free up space in 2017.

Cain, Duffy, and Moustakas are the only guys I could see working out a long-term deal of the 2017 guys. Escobar will be allowed to leave, same with Davis.

Cain because he is older and hasn't made a ton of money yet, so the security may encourage him to take a slightly smaller deal than he could get on the open market (if things go well and he has another strong season).

Duffy because he loves KC and because his up-and-down performances will likely prevent him from getting a huge deal in FA. He'd have to bet on having a pretty huge 2017 to avoid looking at an extension with KC.

And Moustakas because we've seen him go around Boras' advice to sign with KC before (when he was drafted). I think he loves it here and would be interested in staying.

I'd love to put Hosmer in that group and won't dismiss out-of-hand the odds of keeping him. They're against KC, but I think that average yearly salary ends up looking a lot more like Freddie Freeman's deal (somewhere in the low 20s, opt-out after three years, 7 years, $150-165 million seems like a decent guess).

That's not completely out of KC's range, it's just a matter of whether they can sustain this payroll and they find a way to offset some of the cost with cheaper alternatives at other positions.

For example, a 2018 IF of Hosmer, Merrifield, Mondesi and Cuthbert would feature one pre-arb guy (Mondesi), and two guys in their final pre-arbitration years (Cuthbert and Merrifield). Grand total of salary for the entire infield would likely still be under $30 million.

I just don't see us signing Hosmer unless he pulls a "KC is where I wanna be" thing. If he does do that and we at least pay him decent I think that bodes well for keeping Moose and most likely Cain as well.

I think Esky will be replaced with Mondesi If we do lock up Moose I think Cutty gets dealt. Otherwise you let Moose walk which could play into Hos not wanting to hang for less $.

Chiefspants · 06-26-2016, 07:40 PM

I personally don't see much value in trading Cutty. He seems like a perfect "reload not rebuild" piece. He gives us versatility in the signing period during FA (can likely play 1st or 3rd, wouldn't be surprised to see him in 2B or RF this winter either).

**SAUTO** · 06-26-2016, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I personally don't see much value in trading Cutty. He seems like a perfect "reload not rebuild" piece. He gives us versatility in the signing period during FA (can likely play 1st or 3rd, wouldn't be surprised to see him in 2B or RF this winter either).

I think he's pretty valuable

Chiefspants · 06-26-2016, 07:43 PM

I do too, but I think we would get more value by playing him rather than trading him.

**SAUTO** · 06-26-2016, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I do too, but I think we would get more value by playing him rather than trading him.

That's what I meant, I left off "to us" at the end, no idea what happened. Lol

04-03-2016, 09:48 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1180308	* Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 * And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions. In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc. I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out: 2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot. Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense. Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise. Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud. 3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone. Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again. Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better. 4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar. Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so. Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB? 5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform. Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent... And, as always, here are the prospects. Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. 9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. Spoiler! 11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble. 18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates. 19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system. 20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.
Posts: 21,208

06-26-2016, 05:06 PM	#2341
DaneMcCloud Supporter Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Hollywood, CA Casino cash: $10053648	And Cuthbert is only 23...
Posts: 88,960

06-26-2016, 05:42 PM	#2342
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1180308	Re: Making an offseason trade for SP, i think that's a possibility but believe Moore would prefer to trade from minor league inventory than move a young player with many years of control who has proven himself at the majors (as Cuthbert is starting to - still a long ways to go, and 300 more ABs or so to see him take). Whether KC is able to extend a player or two who will be a free agent after 2017 could also be a big factor in making a trade. Not that I believe they'd trade a guy because they couldn't extend him, just that if they sign Lorenzo Cain to a 5-year, $65 million deal or something like that, they'll likely backload some of it to free up space in 2017. Cain, Duffy, and Moustakas are the only guys I could see working out a long-term deal of the 2017 guys. Escobar will be allowed to leave, same with Davis. Cain because he is older and hasn't made a ton of money yet, so the security may encourage him to take a slightly smaller deal than he could get on the open market (if things go well and he has another strong season). Duffy because he loves KC and because his up-and-down performances will likely prevent him from getting a huge deal in FA. He'd have to bet on having a pretty huge 2017 to avoid looking at an extension with KC. And Moustakas because we've seen him go around Boras' advice to sign with KC before (when he was drafted). I think he loves it here and would be interested in staying. I'd love to put Hosmer in that group and won't dismiss out-of-hand the odds of keeping him. They're against KC, but I think that average yearly salary ends up looking a lot more like Freddie Freeman's deal (somewhere in the low 20s, opt-out after three years, 7 years, $150-165 million seems like a decent guess). That's not completely out of KC's range, it's just a matter of whether they can sustain this payroll and they find a way to offset some of the cost with cheaper alternatives at other positions. For example, a 2018 IF of Hosmer, Merrifield, Mondesi and Cuthbert would feature one pre-arb guy (Mondesi), and two guys in their final pre-arbitration years (Cuthbert and Merrifield). Grand total of salary for the entire infield would likely still be under $30 million. __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,208

06-26-2016, 05:48 PM	#2343
eDave Banned Join Date: Jan 2013 Casino cash: $9998560	Trading our future to win now is dumb. Ride it out.
Posts: 53,803

06-26-2016, 06:00 PM	#2344
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	I looked at Rookie hitters age 23 since the expansion era 1969-. Of the 363 qualifiers, Cuth is at the edge of the upper 1/3 in wRC+. But that's only half of it: the vast majority of them became regulars with decent if not excellent careers, because being a qualified hitter at 23 isn't very common. I would trade Moose for a Wacha type in a heartbeat. Since hitting has been so tough to come by, we ought to be able to get good value for Moose.
Posts: 87,025

06-26-2016, 06:02 PM	#2345
big nasty kcnut The pizza king of kansas Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Somewhere in the u.s.a. Casino cash: $1040900	I predict we will win the central. By 4 games or more. __________________ When it's grim, be the grim reaper and go get it. Adopt a chiefs Travis Kelce. You woke up the wrong mother****er!
Posts: 18,938

06-26-2016, 07:30 PM	#2349
BigCatDaddy The Beast Inside Your Head Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Parts Unknown Casino cash: $1449122	Good info Duncan. Thanks!
Posts: 25,945

06-26-2016, 07:40 PM	#2352
Chiefspants World's Best Boss Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bronco Country Casino cash: $5654654	I personally don't see much value in trading Cutty. He seems like a perfect "reload not rebuild" piece. He gives us versatility in the signing period during FA (can likely play 1st or 3rd, wouldn't be surprised to see him in 2B or RF this winter either).
Posts: 18,353

06-26-2016, 07:43 PM	#2354
Chiefspants World's Best Boss Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bronco Country Casino cash: $5654654	I do too, but I think we would get more value by playing him rather than trading him.
Posts: 18,353