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Old 11-21-2021, 07:21 PM  
MMXcalibur MMXcalibur is offline
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How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?
Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

---

Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%
Last edited by MMXcalibur; 12-19-2021 at 03:13 PM..
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:18 AM   #226
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I don't think we win out, guys.

That's a lot to ask of any team in the NFL.

I also don't think the #1 seed is super imperative.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:20 AM   #227
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Are people really afraid of the Patriots and a rookie QB? You guys realize they have beat only 2 winning teams all year right?

And one of them was last Sunday against a nuetered injury rittled team
I really don’t get it. They don’t even scare me a little bit.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:22 AM   #228
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Originally Posted by Pants View Post
I don't think we win out, guys.

That's a lot to ask of any team in the NFL.

I also don't think the #1 seed is super imperative.
It's possible especially if our d keeps playing the way it is. However, I'm not expecting it.

I think we at 9-4 going into the Chargers game got a feeling we win that one. Possibly lose to the Bengals but really nothing has changed from the start of the season in terms of if the Chiefs bring their A game no one is beating them.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:23 AM   #229
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I don't think we win out, guys.

That's a lot to ask of any team in the NFL.

I also don't think the #1 seed is super imperative.
We’ve gone on long winning steaks throughout Reid’s tenure. Sure, it’s probably unlikely, but it shouldn’t shock us either.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:31 AM   #230
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Let's break it down a bit.

Chiefs are better than Denver and Denver is banged up AR after a bye etc. That is a win

Raiders - Chiefs put a beat down on these guys in their house, we get them at home and although it is a divisional matchup this game is one of the few we absolutely dominated. That is a win

Chargers - We moved the ball well and lost this game due to turnovers. Even so it came down to a game altering call on a 3rd and 10 for the Bolts to win. Away game and short week this is the greatest risk but the Chiefs can no doubt not turn the ball over in this one and win. I'd go with a win here

Steelers - they suck this is a win. Ingram gets 2 sacks in a revenge game. At home as well.

Bengals - They don't really have any impressive wins, outside of Balt but we know they are banged up and not that great. Still think this is were the Chiefs could falter especially if Bengals come in hungry this game. - Probably the only L i see happening

Denver - Their season is over at this point, Chiefs W here, unless we can't improve seeding and the Chiefs rest their guys.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:37 AM   #231
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:39 AM   #232
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I really don’t get it. They don’t even scare me a little bit.
Their defense is damn good. And their offense has pieces but this isn’t Brady. Mac is a shadow of Brady.

He’s been good but we
Have Mahomes ffs
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:39 AM   #233
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I do think that running the table is very possible. Just hard to expect this Chiefs team not to drop any stinkers between now and the playoffs.

It's not inconceivable that Mahomes has another crazy game where he reverts back to forcing things and tosses a ton of picks.

I'd give us about a 50% chance at running the table.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:44 AM   #234
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i messed with the simulator and the bengals have a really good chance at the #1 seed.

Especially if they win this week vs the chargers, and somehow beat us.

For the chiefs, if the bengals beat the bolts, and we beat the broncos - the at Cincy game is a critical game for both teams.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:58 AM   #235
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If we do, the Patriots can lose the lead on us if they lose one game, just one game. But they don't have many potential losses on their calendar -- the duo with Buffalo is about it for them. So if we lose once, which I expect we'll do, we almost certainly lose out..
They've got two games against a good divisional opponent in the Bills, a feisty Colts team, and one against the Dolphins who they historically struggle against.

That's four tough games and three of them are on the road. I'm not saying they will lose any or all of these, but I would not be shocked if they dropped two or even three of them.
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Old 11-30-2021, 01:14 PM   #236
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What you’re all forgetting IS.... this is 2019 all over again. Pats are gonna lose in Miami week 18 to give us the 1 seed. Have faith, this is the way!
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Old 11-30-2021, 01:28 PM   #237
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You're missing Baltimore in that equation, who is honestly the odds-on favorite at this point.
Sorry, I should have elaborated more on them in my post.

I think they lose 3 of their remaining 6 games and therefore will NOT be in the discussion for the #1 seed, unlike the Chiefs, Pats and Titans.

Chiefs may run the table, but will probably lose one.

Pats will lose one, possibly two.

As bad as the Titans have looked, their schedule is very favorable down the stretch. They shouldn't lose more than one. Now, saying that, I realize they just lost to the Texans a couple weeks ago so, admittedly, anything is possible there.

We'll see, I guess.
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Old 11-30-2021, 01:53 PM   #238
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The Patriots definitely don’t scare me, but a team will need to play a relatively mistake free game to beat them in foxboro in the post season.

Mac is a damn good QB and doesn’t get enough credit because he doesn’t have a WOW arm and he’s not going to beat you as a runner. But he’s very football smart, reads defenses, doesn’t make many poor decisions and is a leader.
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Old 11-30-2021, 01:59 PM   #239
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The only team that halfway scares me on the road or at home in the playoffs would be New England. Probably more to do with the Belichick factor than anything else, the ghost of the past.
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Old 11-30-2021, 02:54 PM   #240
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The only team that halfway scares me on the road or at home in the playoffs would be New England. Probably more to do with the Belichick factor than anything else, the ghost of the past.
Yep. It's all because of Belichick.
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