***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Please tell me the fundamental difference between what the US government and Federal Reserve did in 2008 to 'save' the economy and what those same two entities are doing now?

2008 - Banks shoveled debt to people with proven records of not being able to take on the debt.
2020 - A pandemic started.

2008 - ...this somehow blindsided the economy when these people couldn't pay their mortgages.
2020 - People were asked to stay home.

2008 - People go broke and lose jobs due to the downsizing of the housing market (among other things).
2020 - People aren't able to work due to temporary closures for ~30-60 days.

2008 - People are forced to go on unemployment because they are laid off.
2020 - People are told they should go on unemployment due to the temporary closures.

2008 - ...and there's no guarantees of those jobs returning any time soon.
2020 - ...there's no hard evidence that the vast majority of jobs won't return.

2008 - Trying to return to normal, people don't have jobs and are possibly under water in mortgage debt.
2020 - Trying to return to normal, people go back to work, but are afraid of starting the 2nd wave of the pandemic.

2008 - The government sends $1000 to people who are filing bankruptcy and/or don't have jobs.
2020 - The government sends $1000 to people who are temporarily not working for 30-60 days at the jobs that still exist but were on hold.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

I think you're in the wrong thread

It's important enough news that we should allow it.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

When have we had a flu season CFR with .5%?

Been posted before but I believe the highest has been .4

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Been posted before but I believe the highest has been .4

Not that I recall. And leaving out elderly people makes it moot anyway.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Donger

An American Airlines flight from Miami to LGA yesterday.

I could have swore I received an email from them when this first started that they were cutting capacity on flights to allow for distancing measures.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Been posted before but I believe the highest has been .4

You can't say that either because not everyone that got the flu was identified and tested so the CFR for influenza is probably lower.CFR is also not the only metric used in comparing viruses.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

I'm no economic expert, but theoretically I'd think fixing something that was purposely done is inherently easier than being relatively blindsided by an economic bubble bursting.

Aside from the black or white hysteria/"all is fine", what are the facts at this point? How many of the jobs lost from Covid things will come back immediately? Is there hard evidence at this point that the majority of jobs (or a large chunk) won't come back? If we're at 'great recession' levels now and we're talking about opening things up soon, how exactly would this be worse than that period of time (not saying you said it would be worse, but some people are really acting like it)?

Yeah, the country isn't going to all run out and go to the movies and concerts and travel, etc... small business have already closed and others will. Spending will be down. OTOH.... it's been one month with hopes of ending this fairly soon, yet people are acting like those 20 million people have been unemployed for a year with zero hope of employment.

There are so many variables and unknowns, not sure why we have to jump to the worst case scenario.

There's actually reasons for optimism. Of course this is going to hurt. But as hard as we've been hit I think a lot of the structural stuff is still pretty sound. Structural issues like the financial crisis would be the big concern but that doesn't seem to be the case. Seems less likely we'll see a v shaped recovery. But I don't know that it'll be L shaped either. So... Probably bad but not as bad as we may have thought

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Monticore

You can't say that either because not everyone that got the flu was identified and tested so the CFR for influenza is probably lower.

sure but the same could be said about COVID. This is just NYC we are talking about. Wouldnt the CFR drop even further in places like Texas that already have a low CFR when compared to NYC.

If the CFR in the WORST place in USA is .5 (Sure that bad) then wouldn't other places CFR drop even further?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Do you have anything insightful to add?

What exactly are you predicting is going to happen?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

sure but the same could be said about COVID. This is just NYC we are talking about. Wouldnt the CFR drop even further in places like Texas that already have a low CFR when compared to NYC.

If the CFR in the WORST place in USA is .5 (Sure that bad) than wouldn't other place CFR drop even further?

the CFR will vary depending on which demographics it infects but overall the true cfr of the virus should be the same.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by Donger

When have we had a flu season CFR with .5%?

I think what he was saying was overall the CFR is around .5% so when you take out the over 50 crowd, the CFR dips into flu ranges.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Monticore

It might not if the spread in texas is lower.

sure,

But let assume same % (no likely) that would lower the CFR correct?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by kgrund

I think what he was saying was overall the CFR is around .5% so when you take out the over 50 crowd, the CFR dips into flu ranges.

And why would one do that to begin with?

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by Donger

What exactly are you predicting is going to happen?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

sure,

But let assume same % (no likely) that would lower the CFR correct?

no if it infects the same demographics why would it kill less in texas?