Royals *** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository *** - Page 166

duncan_idaho · 09:49 AM

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

Mr. Laz · 01-13-2016, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

@Buster_ESPN: Wei-Yin Chen's deal with the Marlins is for five years, with a sixth-year vesting option.

****

suzzer99 · 01-13-2016, 07:59 PM

Rany is counting down the top 218 monents of the 2014-2015 Royals.

Setup: http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2016_01_03_archive.html

First installment: http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2016/...s-city_11.html

KChiefs1 · 01-13-2016, 08:06 PM

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-tho...f-ian-kennedy/

A Thorough Consideration of Ian Kennedy

by Jeff Sullivan - January 13, 2016

You probably didn’t wake up today thinking “today I’d like to read something about Ian Kennedy.” That’s fine. You probably didn’t wake up yesterday thinking “today I’d like to read something about Wei-Yin Chen” or “today I’d like to read something about the Marlins,” but both those things got folded into the same post. It’s the middle of January. This isn’t the time of year when people are thinking about baseball. Even when people are thinking about baseball, they’re only very infrequently thinking about Ian Kennedy. Even he knows he’s not the most high-profile starting pitcher around.

It’s just — okay: Posts have to be written. They might as well be written about what’s going on. And at the moment, Kennedy remains a free agent, with reports indicating his market has heated up. At any moment now, Kennedy could officially end up with a new employer, and he’s going to get a mid-eight-figure deal. Maybe it’s going to come from the Royals. Maybe it’s going to come from the Orioles or somebody else, but a deal will materialize. Right now Kennedy is of some interest, so it’s time for him to be thoroughly considered. The following will be conducted with points and counterpoints.

The starting position: Kennedy is a free-agent starting pitcher. He’s available to anyone with money and an opening. Or, at least, a potential opening. So let’s go with money and interest. If you want Ian Kennedy, and if you can afford Ian Kennedy, you can get Ian Kennedy.

BUT

Last season, Kennedy allowed the highest OPS among all qualified pitchers. Literally the very highest — higher than Alfredo Simon, and higher than Aaron Harang. Now, the fact that Kennedy managed to be a qualified pitcher in the first place indicates it wasn’t all bad, but that’s true for all the qualified pitchers, and…Kennedy allowed the highest OPS. He basically turned his average opponent into Mitch Moreland. That’s not a wonderfully-constructed sentence, since maybe you don’t realize how good a hitter Moreland was last season, but Moreland was a good hitter last season. Strong. This happened to Kennedy in the National League, spending half his time pitching in San Diego.

BUT

The season before, among all qualified pitchers, Kennedy was around the middle of the pack. He was in a similar situation, but his OPS was better by well more than 100 points, and he wound up tied with Shelby Miller and Yovani Gallardo. A tiny bit better than James Shields. It’s not like Kennedy hasn’t been good recently; he just hasn’t been good most recently. But there is a decent track record here.

BUT

Kennedy just allowed home runs on more than 17% of his fly balls. Only Shields and Kyle Kendrick were worse — by less than half of one percentage point. Several of Kennedy’s pitches were getting slaughtered. He had a legitimate dinger problem, and there’s no quicker ticket out of a game than giving up dingers. It’s the single worst possible outcome.

BUT

You know how finicky these things are. The year before last, Kennedy allowed home runs on less than 8% of his fly balls. So he had the opposite of a dinger problem. (A dinger solution?) His career mark is just under 11%, over more than 1,200 innings. And I decided to do a bit of bigger-picture research. Since 2002, 1,286 pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings in back-to-back seasons. I looked at the best and worst home-run pitchers in Year 1. I grouped all the pitchers with Year 1 HR/FB rates of at least 16% — they averaged 17.4%. In Year 2, they averaged 11.0%. At the other end, I grouped all the pitchers with Year 1 rates no higher than 6% — they averaged 5.2%. In Year 2, they averaged 9.4%. Something, yes. But so, so heavily regressed. Kennedy probably isn’t a pitcher with a home-run problem. He’s a pitcher who had a home-run problem.

BUT

Over the last three years, only Kyle Lohse and Colby Lewis own higher hard-hit rates. It follows that Kennedy also has a low soft-hit rate. Evidence certainly suggests that Kennedy is a below-average contact manager, that batters are able to get pretty good swings. In this way he isn’t Wei-Yin Chen.

BUT

One way to compensate for allowing hard contact? Allowing less contact. Used to be, Kennedy struck out roughly a fifth of all the hitters he faced. The last two years, he’s finished closer to a quarter. His strikeouts played up in 2014, and last year he didn’t give any of them back. It leads to a nifty K-BB%. Again, over two years, Kennedy has managed about the same K-BB% as Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Cole Hamels, and Phil Hughes. He’s been higher than Tyson Ross and Dallas Keuchel. Many of the peripherals you want are there. Kennedy does throw enough strikes, and he punches hitters out. This is the good stuff.

BUT

Sort pitchers from the last two years by K-BB%. Kennedy ranks 23rd. He’s the only guy in the top 30 with a three-digit ERA-.

BUT

You could just as easily argue that’s a good thing, not a bad thing. The xFIP- of 94 puts Kennedy even with Jeff Samardzija, who signed for $90 million. And he cost a draft pick.

BUT

Kennedy, also, will cost a draft pick. The Padres extended a qualifying offer, and now there will be extra value to be lost. You’re talking about a potential first-rounder, in exchange for a starting pitcher who just got hit around in his age-30 season. Some would argue it’s a steep price to pay.

BUT

Marco Estrada signed for two years and $26 million, and he cost a would-be pick. Wei-Yin Chen cost a pick at five and $80 million. John Lackey cost a pick at two and $32 million. Daniel Murphy cost a pick at three and $37.5 million. Draft picks are important, but they become far less important outside of the top five or top 10, and those are the protected picks. Remember, free agents can help you win right away. Even a good draft pick won’t likely return value for two or three years, at least.

BUT

Kennedy spent a lot of time last season trying to work on fixing his mechanics. You want your seasoned veterans to be pretty stable and consistent, but it seemed like Kennedy spent months just trying to find himself, with the help of his pitching coach.

BUT

Kennedy made a simple adjustment between his last start of May and his first start of June — he shifted over several inches on the rubber.

kennedy

It’s subtle, but these things usually are, and the adjustment more or less stuck the rest of the way. And, coincidentally or not coincidentally, Kennedy’s OPS allowed afterward improved by roughly 200 points. He still gave up some dingers, but Kennedy was much, much more effective as he distanced himself from the season’s start.

BUT

Kennedy just went on the DL for the first time since 2008. The best predictor of future injury is past injury.

BUT

He went on the DL with a hamstring strain. His arm has been fine, and he’s made at least 30 starts in all six of his seasons as a regular. So Kennedy has durability working in his favor, and beyond that, if anything his stuff is playing up. His first four years as a big-league starter, Kennedy’s fastball averaged about 90. Two years ago, he was at 91.8, and last year he was at 91.3. Last year his velocity also improved between May and June, as he made other mechanical adjustments. This is a quiet aspect to Kennedy’s re-emergence: he’s still allowed his hard contact, but he’s thrown harder than ever, and you have to figure that goes into the strikeout hike. You also have to figure that’s encouraging, as an indicator of health. It’s unusual for velocity to build as a pitcher gains years. Usually velocity starts declining early. Someone else who’s bucked the trend is J.A. Happ, who’s added strength as he’s aged. James Shields did the same before giving something back last season. Kennedy’s arm seems to be in good shape, for a pitcher his age, with that many miles.

=====

I’m not sure there’s anything more to be said. For every negative, there’s a positive; for every positive, there’s a negative. What we’re left with is something on the order of a league-average starter, with ball-in-play upside and ball-in-play downside, and the market has so far rewarded pitchers like this, so Kennedy shouldn’t be punished too much. Mike Leake has age on his side, and his own fastball has improved, but Leake probably has the bigger home-run problem. To add Ian Kennedy isn’t to add anything sensational, but there’s probably not a team in baseball he wouldn’t make at least a little bit better. Soon, we’ll find out where he goes. The fans, probably, will come away underwhelmed. Still, he’s likely to do more good than harm. He’s an addition you like more during the year than during the offseason. There’s not much point in winning the offseason.

KChiefs1 · 01-13-2016, 08:13 PM

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/still...vani-gallardo/

A look at Yovani Gallardo

Phase II of the 2015-16 free agent and trade markets has begun, with Alex Gordon re-upping with the Royals, and the rumor mill is again beginning to churn after a brief holiday-related respite. The elite and upper-middle-class arms have already secured their positions for 2016 and beyond, but some of the other middle class arms remain on the market.

The three free agent pitchers who are subject to draft pick compensation but are still likely to sign long-term deals are lefty Wei-Yin Chen and righties Yovani Gallardo and Ian Kennedy. At this stage in the game, it is likely that all three will need to settle for terms below consensus projections. Earlier this week, we took a look at Chen’s situation; today, we’ll dig a little bit deeper into Yovani Gallardo’s true value.

I was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers scouting staff when Gallardo was selected in the second round of the 2004 draft. In fact, that was my first year in the draft room. As the Northeast Scouting Supervisor, that year was quite an experience, as one of the prospects from my region, right-handed pitcher Mark Rogers, was our first-round pick, drafted fifth overall. While not squarely in the mix for our first-round selection, there was another high school righty who we clearly considered a first rounder: a Texas kid named Yovani Gallardo.

Some of our crosscheckers raved about Gallardo in a manner not often heard in my draft room experience. His stuff was strong, and had surged immediately prior to our draft meetings. He was an athletic kid who could really hit and field his position, and perhaps most importantly, Gallardo had made it absolutely clear that he wished to forego college and sign a professional contract.

There were some complicating factors, however. First, scouting Gallardo was not an easy proposition. He pitched at Trimble Technical HS in Fort Worth, a subpar program that played weak competition. I am being very kind here; this was not your typical Texas high school power conference. His club lacked a catcher who could meet the bare minimum requirements of his position when Gallardo was on the mound.

This wasn’t the only problem. Pitch counts? Gallardo was on the mound until the game ended. Never saw it in person, but I heard reports of 170-plus-pitch outings. On a bad day for his catcher, Gallardo would cut him a break and avoid his breaking stuff altogether. Pretty tough to project a player from this environment into the major leagues.

That said, when Gallardo was still available on the second round, we quickly pounced and announced his name. He signed quickly, dominated rookie ball, and actually logged a pair of full-season Low-A starts that draft summer, at the tender age of 18. He knifed through the minors, posting a 27-13, 2.59 career mark with a glittering 457:143 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K:BB) in 396.1 innings, all as one of the youngest competitors at each level.

Each season, I compile an ordered list of top minor league starting pitcher prospects, based on performance and age relative to level and league. Gallardo qualified for my list in each of his three minor league seasons, finishing among the top 10 twice, and peaking at #3 in 2007. That is generally a harbinger of excellence at the major league level.

Gallardo spent the second half of that 2007 season in the Brewers’ major league rotation, and excelled, posting a 9-5, 3.67 mark and 101:37 K:BB in 110.1 innings. The 2008 campaign was shaping up as a year of big expectations for the Brewers, and Gallardo was right in the center of it — until, of course, he suffered a major knee injury on a collision at first base in an early season start against the Cubs.

It did turn out to be a fairly magical season in Milwaukee, as they won the NL Central largely due to the second-half efforts of newly acquired starter CC Sabathia. Gallardo quietly, diligently rehabbed, and there he was, ready to go in time for the playoffs. Alas, Gallardo’s defense abandoned him in a short, earned run-free Game 1 NLDS start against the Phillies, and he was dubiously passed over for Jeff Suppan for the Game 4 start, dominating in long relief once the starter had been touched for a crooked number.

Though he never took the next step qualitatively in Milwaukee, he was a rock in terms of workload and dependability, making 190 starts over the next six seasons as a Brewer. He also threw in 12 homers at the plate for good measure. Heading into his 2015 free agent season, the Brewers dispatched him to the Rangers for minor leaguers Marcos Diplan, Corey Knebel, and Luis Sardinas.

While Gallardo did post the best full-season ERA of his career in 2015 as a Ranger, this is not the same pitcher one envisioned as he worked his way up to the big leagues. His average fastball velocity (90.5 mph in 2015) is over 2 mph lower than his career best, and his swing-and-miss rate, once as high as 9.3%, is now in the lower ranks of MLB starters at 6.5%.

Who is Yovani Gallardo as a pitcher at this point in time, and how much should a club invest in him moving forward? Let’s utilize granular batted-ball data to examine his plate appearance outcome frequencies and production allowed by ball-in-play (BIP) type in order to get a better feel.

Right off the top, the most notable aspect of Gallardo’s frequency table is his poor K:BB profile. His K rate ranked in the 17th, and his BB rate in the 78th percentile relative to his peers. This is a very shaky foundation upon which to build. Even worse are his trends in those categories over the years. His K rate was in the 89th percentile as recently as 2012, capping a four-year stretch in which it sat in a narrow band between the 89th and 94th percentiles. Now, it sits at a career-worst level.

His BB rate percentile rank was actually a better than league average 42 in 2014, but his 2015 performance is more in line with career norms; it’s been 70 or higher in five of the last seven seasons.

Gallardo has maintained a fairly pronounced ground-ball tendency throughout his career; his grounder rate percentile rank, a career high 82 in 2015, has been 62 or higher in six of his seven qualifying seasons. Liner rates, unlike those of other BIP types, fluctuate quite significantly from year to year. Therefore, one shouldn’t get too worked up about Gallardo’s 2015 liner rate percentile rank of 70; he’s been as high as 99 and as low as 13 in that category over his career. Some positive regression should be expected moving forward.

So, we have a poor K:BB hurler, with no margin for error, who at least has a fairly pronounced grounder tendency, giving him a chance for survival. To make any further conclusions, we’ll need to incorporate BIP authority data. Adjusted relative production allowed by BIP type information serves as an excellent proxy, and will give us a good feel for Gallardo as a contact manager.

The actual production allowed on each BIP type is indicated in the batting average (AVG) and slugging (SLG) columns, and is converted to run values and compared to MLB average in the REL PRD (or Unadjusted Contact Score) column. That figure is then adjusted for context, such as home park, team defense, luck, etc., in the ADJ PRD (or Adjusted Contact Score) column. For the purposes of this exercise, sacrifice hits (SH) and flies (SF) are included as outs and hit by pitchers (HBP) are excluded from the on-base percentage (OBP) calculation. One quick note here: I have presented this type of analysis many times, but only recently have I begun to show fly ball and line drive line items both separately and combined.

Right out of the chute, it’s quite apparent that Gallardo is a fairly average contact manager overall. He allowed a bit higher than league average production on FLY/LD combined (107 Unadjusted Contact Score), but adjustment for context (to 97 FLY/LD Adjusted Contact Score) shows he was a bit unlucky in the air. Conversely, his actual production allowed on the ground (78 Unadjusted Contact Score) swung the other way when adjusted for context (108 Adjusted Contact Score). Gallardo may yield a ton of grounders, but they were hit harder than the league average.

On all BIP combined, Gallardo compiled an Adjusted Contact Score of 96, just a bit better than average. Add back the Ks and BBs, and his “tru” ERA is 4.13, obviously well above his actual ERA, but also a bit above his FIP. Only four of the 36 2015 AL ERA qualifiers had higher “tru” ERAs. To post a 3.34 ERA in 2015, Gallardo relied on a combination of good defense, fortuitous sequencing, and good, old-fashioned luck.

The 2014 and 2013 campaigns don’t tell markedly different stories, either. Gallardo posted Adjusted Contact Scores of 100 and 99, respectively, in those two campaigns, and thanks to better K rates and pitching in the NL, logged “tru” ERAs of 3.78 and 3.92. On a scale of 100, his ERA- figures in the last three seasons were 104, 101 and 101. We’re talking about a durable innings guy here; nothing more.

At this point, let me re-introduce the concept of the K/BB Contact Score Multiplier. Basically, based on a pitcher’s K and BB rates relative to the league, a multiplier is assigned and applied to a pitcher’s Contact Score to estimate his “tru”, or true-talent ERA. In 2015, Gallardo’s K rate was over a full standard deviation below league average, and his BB rate was over one-half STD lower than league average. Based on results going back to 2009, his multiplier is 115.6. In 2010, it was a stellar 85.6, and it has deteriorated rapidly since.

Could he get back some of his K:BB losses, and improve his multiplier? Well, at best I could see him scraping an additional one-half positive STD in both categories, which would improve his multiplier to 106.9. It’s just as likely, however, that Gallardo’s effectiveness dips to the extent that he never again qualifies for an ERA title. He’s beginning to live on the edge, with his strikeouts and walks.

So if Gallardo is a 95 Adjusted Contact Score guy, with a 116.5 multiplier, he’s about a 110 ERA- pitcher. That’s not something that is sought out in the free-agent market. Giving him the full benefit of the doubt to a 106.9 multiplier and he’s a 102 ERA- pitcher. That’s a little easier to stomach, especially with his proven durability over the years. Me? I’m not giving him more than three years, at more than $12 million per season. And I’m looking high and low for other options in the trade market before I go there.

There are numerous clubs which would appear to be a fit. Prospective employers require strong team defense, in both the infield and outfield, as well as spacious outfield dimensions. He needs a low Unadjusted Contact Score to have a chance to succeed. Going back to Texas wouldn’t require draft pick compensation, so that’s the best fit of all. Clubs such as the Angels, Cards, Giants, Nationals, Pirates, and Royals — that is, contenders with ballparks that don’t yield many cheap fly ball homers — would give him the best chance to succeed.

Yovani Gallardo’s foundation is very shaky, belying the fine traditional numbers he posted in 2015. There really isn’t a ton of upside here. If you have a nice bullpen and are looking for a #4 starter who will stay healthy and keep you in the ballgame for six innings, however, you could do worse. The World Champion Royals — whose two ERA qualifiers, Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez, had “tru” ERAs of 3.84 and 3.96, respectively — say hello.

Prison Bitch · 01-14-2016, 09:38 AM

Here is a good exchange on Royals Review article discussing Steamer projections:

If they can add a decent pitcher, you probably get to an 80-82 win projection. You hope your guys outperform expectations and make acquisitions to supplement as needed. Maybe you go to the playoffs. Maybe you win 78 games. This is the best you can reasonably hope for if you don’t got that sweet, sweet Dodger money. I’m cool with this.

by 2motley4thetitle on 01.13.16 10:13am

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Theoretical 81-win true talent level, plus 2 wins for the excellent bullpen (which is insufficiently accounted for in pythag, and hopefully in team projections), plus 2(?) wins for under-projected defense = 85 wins. A pretty good team who, with variance, gets back into the playoffs, or has a meh season.

The projections represent what seems most likely given the player's performance in recent seasons, and his age. Any level of 2016 performance is possible for any player, but not all possibilities are equally likely.

by Scott McKinney on 01.13.16 10:17am

Great Expectations · 01-14-2016, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

But this is where we diverge. I (and others) want to know why the BACKWARDS looking metrics, notably PyThag + BaseRuns, don't align either. Because we **know** what happened and we have decades of data points showing what the record should've been. Your factors are all incorporated into the backwards data. So why did we win 95?

All we have today is that we sequenced out of our minds and had the highest "clutch" score in MLB. There's no explanation for that.

Does having outstanding defense and cyborg relievers help our clutch? It certainly is a huge factor in allowing us to win close games as we are much more difficult to score runs against late in the game than our competition is.

Prison Bitch · 01-14-2016, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

Does having outstanding defense and cyborg relievers help our clutch? It certainly is a huge factor in allowing us to win close games as we are much more difficult to score runs against late in the game than our competition is.

Yes, FG found a +2 game premium for elite bullpens. Defensive advanced metrics are quite new so not much data. The issue is the offense. Our hitting with RISP was off the charts this year. Our "clutch" score (which takes RISP as one factor) is the 50th best of the past 40 years. That's 96% percentile.

(Our 1985 team checks in at 41st best....:-)

chief4life · 01-14-2016, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halfcan

9 and 15 last year with a 4.28 ERA. Also has a 3.98 career ERA.

I don't know if I want Ian Kennedy from those stats. But Moore knows what he is doing so I put my trust in whatever he decides!

Great Expectations · 01-14-2016, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Yes, FG found a +2 game premium for elite bullpens. Defensive advanced metrics are quite new so not much data. The issue is the offense. Our hitting with RISP was off the charts this year. Our "clutch" score (which takes RISP as one factor) is the 50th best of the past 40 years. That's 96% percentile.

(Our 1985 team checks in at 41st best....:-)

I wonder if our ability to not strike out plays into that.

The +2 game premium isn't enough for our bullpen; that is likely one of the formulas that contributes to the grossly low win prediction the last few years. Our bullpen was one of the best in history. Our defense is great too and I'm sure that is a large contributor as well.

Halfcan · 01-14-2016, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chief4life

I don't know if I want Ian Kennedy from those stats. But Moore knows what he is doing so I put my trust in whatever he decides!

I am sure some of the HR hitters in our division would love to face him. He is one of those pitchers to pad your power numbers against.

**Anyong Bluth** · 01-14-2016, 05:21 PM

Absent some string of injuries, I can't fathom this team turning out only 78 wins.

Less wins than last year is plausible, but I think 10 would be about the max.

**Anyong Bluth** · 01-14-2016, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

I wonder if our ability to not strike out plays into that.

The +2 game premium isn't enough for our bullpen; that is likely one of the formulas that contributes to the grossly low win prediction the last few years. Our bullpen was one of the best in history. Our defense is great too and I'm sure that is a large contributor as well.

A 2 game premium? Sure, I'll buy that number if we're talking about just the playoffs.

For the regular season, I'd give it just under 10%, or roughly the equivalent of about 16 games. I'd give our historic defense probably just under 5% / 8 games.

Does anyone think that the Royals bullpen and defensive play didn't have an impact on them winning in 24 out of all 162 games last season?

I watched about 90% of the games last year, and probably 96% of their games through August, so the predominant number of the games I didn't watch were early to mid September.

Chiefspants · 01-14-2016, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halfcan

I am sure some of the HR hitters in our division would love to face him. He is one of those pitchers to pad your power numbers against.

This is also why opposing hitters loved Chris Young, right?

KevB · 01-15-2016, 07:58 AM

From Heyman on Twitter :

royals are said to be making progress on ian kennedy. talking are ongoing.

KevB · 01-15-2016, 08:01 AM

So GMDM may come out of the off season with Gordon, Young, Kennedy and Soria? That's solid.

11-02-2015, 05:00 PM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-2079692	* Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository * Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB. In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title. Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore. We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa. Now, let's talk about the offseason: LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully). First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts. Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things. If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc. I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk. Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth? Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years. Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list). Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period. The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer. I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be: 1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160). Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura) 2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016. Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell. After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart. 3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season. 4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time. And, as always, here are the Prospects: Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. 9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. Spoiler! 11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble. 18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates. 19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system. 20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task. Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
Posts: 22,430

01-13-2016, 07:59 PM	#2477
suzzer99 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: L.A. Casino cash: $-745716	Rany is counting down the top 218 monents of the 2014-2015 Royals. Setup: http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2016_01_03_archive.html First installment: http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2016/...s-city_11.html
Posts: 28,361

01-13-2016, 08:06 PM	#2478
KChiefs1 I’m a Mahomo! Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Mid-Missouri Casino cash: $6771021	* Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository * http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-tho...f-ian-kennedy/ A Thorough Consideration of Ian Kennedy by Jeff Sullivan - January 13, 2016 You probably didn’t wake up today thinking “today I’d like to read something about Ian Kennedy.” That’s fine. You probably didn’t wake up yesterday thinking “today I’d like to read something about Wei-Yin Chen” or “today I’d like to read something about the Marlins,” but both those things got folded into the same post. It’s the middle of January. This isn’t the time of year when people are thinking about baseball. Even when people are thinking about baseball, they’re only very infrequently thinking about Ian Kennedy. Even he knows he’s not the most high-profile starting pitcher around. It’s just — okay: Posts have to be written. They might as well be written about what’s going on. And at the moment, Kennedy remains a free agent, with reports indicating his market has heated up. At any moment now, Kennedy could officially end up with a new employer, and he’s going to get a mid-eight-figure deal. Maybe it’s going to come from the Royals. Maybe it’s going to come from the Orioles or somebody else, but a deal will materialize. Right now Kennedy is of some interest, so it’s time for him to be thoroughly considered. The following will be conducted with points and counterpoints. The starting position: Kennedy is a free-agent starting pitcher. He’s available to anyone with money and an opening. Or, at least, a potential opening. So let’s go with money and interest. If you want Ian Kennedy, and if you can afford Ian Kennedy, you can get Ian Kennedy. BUT Last season, Kennedy allowed the highest OPS among all qualified pitchers. Literally the very highest — higher than Alfredo Simon, and higher than Aaron Harang. Now, the fact that Kennedy managed to be a qualified pitcher in the first place indicates it wasn’t all bad, but that’s true for all the qualified pitchers, and…Kennedy allowed the highest OPS. He basically turned his average opponent into Mitch Moreland. That’s not a wonderfully-constructed sentence, since maybe you don’t realize how good a hitter Moreland was last season, but Moreland was a good hitter last season. Strong. This happened to Kennedy in the National League, spending half his time pitching in San Diego. BUT The season before, among all qualified pitchers, Kennedy was around the middle of the pack. He was in a similar situation, but his OPS was better by well more than 100 points, and he wound up tied with Shelby Miller and Yovani Gallardo. A tiny bit better than James Shields. It’s not like Kennedy hasn’t been good recently; he just hasn’t been good most recently. But there is a decent track record here. BUT Kennedy just allowed home runs on more than 17% of his fly balls. Only Shields and Kyle Kendrick were worse — by less than half of one percentage point. Several of Kennedy’s pitches were getting slaughtered. He had a legitimate dinger problem, and there’s no quicker ticket out of a game than giving up dingers. It’s the single worst possible outcome. BUT You know how finicky these things are. The year before last, Kennedy allowed home runs on less than 8% of his fly balls. So he had the opposite of a dinger problem. (A dinger solution?) His career mark is just under 11%, over more than 1,200 innings. And I decided to do a bit of bigger-picture research. Since 2002, 1,286 pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings in back-to-back seasons. I looked at the best and worst home-run pitchers in Year 1. I grouped all the pitchers with Year 1 HR/FB rates of at least 16% — they averaged 17.4%. In Year 2, they averaged 11.0%. At the other end, I grouped all the pitchers with Year 1 rates no higher than 6% — they averaged 5.2%. In Year 2, they averaged 9.4%. Something, yes. But so, so heavily regressed. Kennedy probably isn’t a pitcher with a home-run problem. He’s a pitcher who had a home-run problem. BUT Over the last three years, only Kyle Lohse and Colby Lewis own higher hard-hit rates. It follows that Kennedy also has a low soft-hit rate. Evidence certainly suggests that Kennedy is a below-average contact manager, that batters are able to get pretty good swings. In this way he isn’t Wei-Yin Chen. BUT One way to compensate for allowing hard contact? Allowing less contact. Used to be, Kennedy struck out roughly a fifth of all the hitters he faced. The last two years, he’s finished closer to a quarter. His strikeouts played up in 2014, and last year he didn’t give any of them back. It leads to a nifty K-BB%. Again, over two years, Kennedy has managed about the same K-BB% as Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Cole Hamels, and Phil Hughes. He’s been higher than Tyson Ross and Dallas Keuchel. Many of the peripherals you want are there. Kennedy does throw enough strikes, and he punches hitters out. This is the good stuff. BUT Sort pitchers from the last two years by K-BB%. Kennedy ranks 23rd. He’s the only guy in the top 30 with a three-digit ERA-. BUT You could just as easily argue that’s a good thing, not a bad thing. The xFIP- of 94 puts Kennedy even with Jeff Samardzija, who signed for $90 million. And he cost a draft pick. BUT Kennedy, also, will cost a draft pick. The Padres extended a qualifying offer, and now there will be extra value to be lost. You’re talking about a potential first-rounder, in exchange for a starting pitcher who just got hit around in his age-30 season. Some would argue it’s a steep price to pay. BUT Marco Estrada signed for two years and $26 million, and he cost a would-be pick. Wei-Yin Chen cost a pick at five and $80 million. John Lackey cost a pick at two and $32 million. Daniel Murphy cost a pick at three and $37.5 million. Draft picks are important, but they become far less important outside of the top five or top 10, and those are the protected picks. Remember, free agents can help you win right away. Even a good draft pick won’t likely return value for two or three years, at least. BUT Kennedy spent a lot of time last season trying to work on fixing his mechanics. You want your seasoned veterans to be pretty stable and consistent, but it seemed like Kennedy spent months just trying to find himself, with the help of his pitching coach. BUT Kennedy made a simple adjustment between his last start of May and his first start of June — he shifted over several inches on the rubber. kennedy It’s subtle, but these things usually are, and the adjustment more or less stuck the rest of the way. And, coincidentally or not coincidentally, Kennedy’s OPS allowed afterward improved by roughly 200 points. He still gave up some dingers, but Kennedy was much, much more effective as he distanced himself from the season’s start. BUT Kennedy just went on the DL for the first time since 2008. The best predictor of future injury is past injury. BUT He went on the DL with a hamstring strain. His arm has been fine, and he’s made at least 30 starts in all six of his seasons as a regular. So Kennedy has durability working in his favor, and beyond that, if anything his stuff is playing up. His first four years as a big-league starter, Kennedy’s fastball averaged about 90. Two years ago, he was at 91.8, and last year he was at 91.3. Last year his velocity also improved between May and June, as he made other mechanical adjustments. This is a quiet aspect to Kennedy’s re-emergence: he’s still allowed his hard contact, but he’s thrown harder than ever, and you have to figure that goes into the strikeout hike. You also have to figure that’s encouraging, as an indicator of health. It’s unusual for velocity to build as a pitcher gains years. Usually velocity starts declining early. Someone else who’s bucked the trend is J.A. Happ, who’s added strength as he’s aged. James Shields did the same before giving something back last season. Kennedy’s arm seems to be in good shape, for a pitcher his age, with that many miles. ===== I’m not sure there’s anything more to be said. For every negative, there’s a positive; for every positive, there’s a negative. What we’re left with is something on the order of a league-average starter, with ball-in-play upside and ball-in-play downside, and the market has so far rewarded pitchers like this, so Kennedy shouldn’t be punished too much. Mike Leake has age on his side, and his own fastball has improved, but Leake probably has the bigger home-run problem. To add Ian Kennedy isn’t to add anything sensational, but there’s probably not a team in baseball he wouldn’t make at least a little bit better. Soon, we’ll find out where he goes. The fans, probably, will come away underwhelmed. Still, he’s likely to do more good than harm. He’s an addition you like more during the year than during the offseason. There’s not much point in winning the offseason. __________________ Last edited by KChiefs1; 01-13-2016 at 08:14 PM..
Posts: 54,038

01-13-2016, 08:13 PM	#2479
KChiefs1 I’m a Mahomo! Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Mid-Missouri Casino cash: $6771021	http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/still...vani-gallardo/ A look at Yovani Gallardo Phase II of the 2015-16 free agent and trade markets has begun, with Alex Gordon re-upping with the Royals, and the rumor mill is again beginning to churn after a brief holiday-related respite. The elite and upper-middle-class arms have already secured their positions for 2016 and beyond, but some of the other middle class arms remain on the market. The three free agent pitchers who are subject to draft pick compensation but are still likely to sign long-term deals are lefty Wei-Yin Chen and righties Yovani Gallardo and Ian Kennedy. At this stage in the game, it is likely that all three will need to settle for terms below consensus projections. Earlier this week, we took a look at Chen’s situation; today, we’ll dig a little bit deeper into Yovani Gallardo’s true value. I was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers scouting staff when Gallardo was selected in the second round of the 2004 draft. In fact, that was my first year in the draft room. As the Northeast Scouting Supervisor, that year was quite an experience, as one of the prospects from my region, right-handed pitcher Mark Rogers, was our first-round pick, drafted fifth overall. While not squarely in the mix for our first-round selection, there was another high school righty who we clearly considered a first rounder: a Texas kid named Yovani Gallardo. Some of our crosscheckers raved about Gallardo in a manner not often heard in my draft room experience. His stuff was strong, and had surged immediately prior to our draft meetings. He was an athletic kid who could really hit and field his position, and perhaps most importantly, Gallardo had made it absolutely clear that he wished to forego college and sign a professional contract. There were some complicating factors, however. First, scouting Gallardo was not an easy proposition. He pitched at Trimble Technical HS in Fort Worth, a subpar program that played weak competition. I am being very kind here; this was not your typical Texas high school power conference. His club lacked a catcher who could meet the bare minimum requirements of his position when Gallardo was on the mound. This wasn’t the only problem. Pitch counts? Gallardo was on the mound until the game ended. Never saw it in person, but I heard reports of 170-plus-pitch outings. On a bad day for his catcher, Gallardo would cut him a break and avoid his breaking stuff altogether. Pretty tough to project a player from this environment into the major leagues. That said, when Gallardo was still available on the second round, we quickly pounced and announced his name. He signed quickly, dominated rookie ball, and actually logged a pair of full-season Low-A starts that draft summer, at the tender age of 18. He knifed through the minors, posting a 27-13, 2.59 career mark with a glittering 457:143 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K:BB) in 396.1 innings, all as one of the youngest competitors at each level. Each season, I compile an ordered list of top minor league starting pitcher prospects, based on performance and age relative to level and league. Gallardo qualified for my list in each of his three minor league seasons, finishing among the top 10 twice, and peaking at #3 in 2007. That is generally a harbinger of excellence at the major league level. Gallardo spent the second half of that 2007 season in the Brewers’ major league rotation, and excelled, posting a 9-5, 3.67 mark and 101:37 K:BB in 110.1 innings. The 2008 campaign was shaping up as a year of big expectations for the Brewers, and Gallardo was right in the center of it — until, of course, he suffered a major knee injury on a collision at first base in an early season start against the Cubs. It did turn out to be a fairly magical season in Milwaukee, as they won the NL Central largely due to the second-half efforts of newly acquired starter CC Sabathia. Gallardo quietly, diligently rehabbed, and there he was, ready to go in time for the playoffs. Alas, Gallardo’s defense abandoned him in a short, earned run-free Game 1 NLDS start against the Phillies, and he was dubiously passed over for Jeff Suppan for the Game 4 start, dominating in long relief once the starter had been touched for a crooked number. Though he never took the next step qualitatively in Milwaukee, he was a rock in terms of workload and dependability, making 190 starts over the next six seasons as a Brewer. He also threw in 12 homers at the plate for good measure. Heading into his 2015 free agent season, the Brewers dispatched him to the Rangers for minor leaguers Marcos Diplan, Corey Knebel, and Luis Sardinas. While Gallardo did post the best full-season ERA of his career in 2015 as a Ranger, this is not the same pitcher one envisioned as he worked his way up to the big leagues. His average fastball velocity (90.5 mph in 2015) is over 2 mph lower than his career best, and his swing-and-miss rate, once as high as 9.3%, is now in the lower ranks of MLB starters at 6.5%. Who is Yovani Gallardo as a pitcher at this point in time, and how much should a club invest in him moving forward? Let’s utilize granular batted-ball data to examine his plate appearance outcome frequencies and production allowed by ball-in-play (BIP) type in order to get a better feel. Right off the top, the most notable aspect of Gallardo’s frequency table is his poor K:BB profile. His K rate ranked in the 17th, and his BB rate in the 78th percentile relative to his peers. This is a very shaky foundation upon which to build. Even worse are his trends in those categories over the years. His K rate was in the 89th percentile as recently as 2012, capping a four-year stretch in which it sat in a narrow band between the 89th and 94th percentiles. Now, it sits at a career-worst level. His BB rate percentile rank was actually a better than league average 42 in 2014, but his 2015 performance is more in line with career norms; it’s been 70 or higher in five of the last seven seasons. Gallardo has maintained a fairly pronounced ground-ball tendency throughout his career; his grounder rate percentile rank, a career high 82 in 2015, has been 62 or higher in six of his seven qualifying seasons. Liner rates, unlike those of other BIP types, fluctuate quite significantly from year to year. Therefore, one shouldn’t get too worked up about Gallardo’s 2015 liner rate percentile rank of 70; he’s been as high as 99 and as low as 13 in that category over his career. Some positive regression should be expected moving forward. So, we have a poor K:BB hurler, with no margin for error, who at least has a fairly pronounced grounder tendency, giving him a chance for survival. To make any further conclusions, we’ll need to incorporate BIP authority data. Adjusted relative production allowed by BIP type information serves as an excellent proxy, and will give us a good feel for Gallardo as a contact manager. The actual production allowed on each BIP type is indicated in the batting average (AVG) and slugging (SLG) columns, and is converted to run values and compared to MLB average in the REL PRD (or Unadjusted Contact Score) column. That figure is then adjusted for context, such as home park, team defense, luck, etc., in the ADJ PRD (or Adjusted Contact Score) column. For the purposes of this exercise, sacrifice hits (SH) and flies (SF) are included as outs and hit by pitchers (HBP) are excluded from the on-base percentage (OBP) calculation. One quick note here: I have presented this type of analysis many times, but only recently have I begun to show fly ball and line drive line items both separately and combined. Right out of the chute, it’s quite apparent that Gallardo is a fairly average contact manager overall. He allowed a bit higher than league average production on FLY/LD combined (107 Unadjusted Contact Score), but adjustment for context (to 97 FLY/LD Adjusted Contact Score) shows he was a bit unlucky in the air. Conversely, his actual production allowed on the ground (78 Unadjusted Contact Score) swung the other way when adjusted for context (108 Adjusted Contact Score). Gallardo may yield a ton of grounders, but they were hit harder than the league average. On all BIP combined, Gallardo compiled an Adjusted Contact Score of 96, just a bit better than average. Add back the Ks and BBs, and his “tru” ERA is 4.13, obviously well above his actual ERA, but also a bit above his FIP. Only four of the 36 2015 AL ERA qualifiers had higher “tru” ERAs. To post a 3.34 ERA in 2015, Gallardo relied on a combination of good defense, fortuitous sequencing, and good, old-fashioned luck. The 2014 and 2013 campaigns don’t tell markedly different stories, either. Gallardo posted Adjusted Contact Scores of 100 and 99, respectively, in those two campaigns, and thanks to better K rates and pitching in the NL, logged “tru” ERAs of 3.78 and 3.92. On a scale of 100, his ERA- figures in the last three seasons were 104, 101 and 101. We’re talking about a durable innings guy here; nothing more. At this point, let me re-introduce the concept of the K/BB Contact Score Multiplier. Basically, based on a pitcher’s K and BB rates relative to the league, a multiplier is assigned and applied to a pitcher’s Contact Score to estimate his “tru”, or true-talent ERA. In 2015, Gallardo’s K rate was over a full standard deviation below league average, and his BB rate was over one-half STD lower than league average. Based on results going back to 2009, his multiplier is 115.6. In 2010, it was a stellar 85.6, and it has deteriorated rapidly since. Could he get back some of his K:BB losses, and improve his multiplier? Well, at best I could see him scraping an additional one-half positive STD in both categories, which would improve his multiplier to 106.9. It’s just as likely, however, that Gallardo’s effectiveness dips to the extent that he never again qualifies for an ERA title. He’s beginning to live on the edge, with his strikeouts and walks. So if Gallardo is a 95 Adjusted Contact Score guy, with a 116.5 multiplier, he’s about a 110 ERA- pitcher. That’s not something that is sought out in the free-agent market. Giving him the full benefit of the doubt to a 106.9 multiplier and he’s a 102 ERA- pitcher. That’s a little easier to stomach, especially with his proven durability over the years. Me? I’m not giving him more than three years, at more than $12 million per season. And I’m looking high and low for other options in the trade market before I go there. There are numerous clubs which would appear to be a fit. Prospective employers require strong team defense, in both the infield and outfield, as well as spacious outfield dimensions. He needs a low Unadjusted Contact Score to have a chance to succeed. Going back to Texas wouldn’t require draft pick compensation, so that’s the best fit of all. Clubs such as the Angels, Cards, Giants, Nationals, Pirates, and Royals — that is, contenders with ballparks that don’t yield many cheap fly ball homers — would give him the best chance to succeed. Yovani Gallardo’s foundation is very shaky, belying the fine traditional numbers he posted in 2015. There really isn’t a ton of upside here. If you have a nice bullpen and are looking for a #4 starter who will stay healthy and keep you in the ballgame for six innings, however, you could do worse. The World Champion Royals — whose two ERA qualifiers, Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez, had “tru” ERAs of 3.84 and 3.96, respectively — say hello. __________________
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01-14-2016, 09:38 AM	#2480
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Here is a good exchange on Royals Review article discussing Steamer projections: If they can add a decent pitcher, you probably get to an 80-82 win projection. You hope your guys outperform expectations and make acquisitions to supplement as needed. Maybe you go to the playoffs. Maybe you win 78 games. This is the best you can reasonably hope for if you don’t got that sweet, sweet Dodger money. I’m cool with this. by 2motley4thetitle on 01.13.16 10:13am  ---------------- Theoretical 81-win true talent level, plus 2 wins for the excellent bullpen (which is insufficiently accounted for in pythag, and hopefully in team projections), plus 2(?) wins for under-projected defense = 85 wins. A pretty good team who, with variance, gets back into the playoffs, or has a meh season. The projections represent what seems most likely given the player's performance in recent seasons, and his age. Any level of 2016 performance is possible for any player, but not all possibilities are equally likely. by Scott McKinney on 01.13.16 10:17am
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01-14-2016, 05:21 PM	#2486
Anyong Bluth Deus ambulans inter homines Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Chicago Casino cash: $9439340	Absent some string of injuries, I can't fathom this team turning out only 78 wins. Less wins than last year is plausible, but I think 10 would be about the max. __________________ Suck it, *beautiful*
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01-15-2016, 07:58 AM	#2489
KevB Agree to Disagree Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: The State of Euphoria Casino cash: $10026612	From Heyman on Twitter : royals are said to be making progress on ian kennedy. talking are ongoing.
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01-15-2016, 08:01 AM	#2490
KevB Agree to Disagree Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: The State of Euphoria Casino cash: $10026612	So GMDM may come out of the off season with Gordon, Young, Kennedy and Soria? That's solid.
Posts: 14,446