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04-27-2020, 02:09 PM | #25021 | |
Mahomes: We Are All Witnesses
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What's the plan to deal with the second wave without herd immunity? There will be no vaccine. Go back into draconian lockdown mode and destroy the economy again? |
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04-27-2020, 02:13 PM | #25022 |
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Here's an better way to see how things are going.
South Korea - The battle is won Norway and Denmark - Starting to win, but not there yet Sweden, UK, and US - Looking better, but still not winning |
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04-27-2020, 02:14 PM | #25023 | |
Mahomes: We Are All Witnesses
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Sweden is expected to reach herd immunity by May. Everyone else who was in lockdown will have no such herd immunity or defense when/if the virus returns. |
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04-27-2020, 02:15 PM | #25024 |
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Let's see....approx. 10x the death rate of their neighbors and still not really flattening. I don't see the win there.
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04-27-2020, 02:15 PM | #25025 | |
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I don't know how you can look at the data right now and say that their approach is BETTER in the short-term. |
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04-27-2020, 02:15 PM | #25026 |
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That's 100% hypothesis. We don't know yet.
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04-27-2020, 02:16 PM | #25027 |
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It sounds like Missouri is pretty much full open again next week. Some restrictions still in place, but restaurants and barber shops and such all can open.
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04-27-2020, 02:18 PM | #25028 | |
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Quote:
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04-27-2020, 02:18 PM | #25029 |
Please squeeze
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04-27-2020, 02:18 PM | #25030 | |
Veteran
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The Financial Times published a story yesterday looking at this in various locations throughout the world. Here's the link https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-...9-0d5c6fac846c via @financialtimes For every studied location except Denmark, the excess deaths computed via this method greatly outnumber what has been being officially attributed to COVID-19. By the way, the graphs in that article are a bit confusing, because the vertical axis is for weekly average deaths, but the excess deaths are show in absolute counts that don't match the vertical axis. I believe that those excess deaths are formed via integration (i.e. they are partial areas between the observed and expected curves over the time period of interest). Last edited by DanT; 04-27-2020 at 02:28 PM.. |
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04-27-2020, 02:19 PM | #25031 | |
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Quote:
So while Sweden may look higher now, they know there is no seccond wave. Everyone else will have a second wave unless they lockdown for the 12-18 months it takes to generate a vaccine. Let's consider the three studies on anti-bodies. Right now it looks much less deadly than feared...but at the same time much more contagious. No lockdown will stop it, only time shift the spike. Personally I think the countries doing lockdowns will easily kill far more people than those that don't. Especially if you honest factor in the increase in suicides/homicides caused by isolation and economic devistation.
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04-27-2020, 02:19 PM | #25032 |
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Listening to Missouri Gov's announcement. Wasn't expecting this big of a "re-open". Glad to see.
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04-27-2020, 02:20 PM | #25033 |
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04-27-2020, 02:20 PM | #25034 |
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So KCMO has had 2.5 incubation period cycles. The crude arithmetic mean suggests the shelter in place mandate puts a floor on new cases somewhere between 4-8% per day.
Since we've clearly moved from "flatten the curve" to "people cannot be allowed to die" goal I do not see how Lucas doesn't extend S-I-P past May 15 since the number of new cases will never go through that 4-8% floor.
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04-27-2020, 02:22 PM | #25035 | |
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