***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

You didn't include any ages or age bracket data in that post.

Here's one for NYC...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...new-york-city/

Maybe this will help:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...361v1.full.pdf

Individuals with age <65 account for 5%-9% of all COVID-19 deaths in the 8 European epicenters, and approach 30% in three US hotbed locations. People <65 years old had 34- to 73-fold lower risk than those ≥65 years old in the European countries and 13- to 15-fold lower risk in New York City, Louisiana and Michigan. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death ranged from 1.7 per million for people <65 years old in Germany to 79 per million in New York City. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from approximately 1 in 6,000 in Germany to 1 in 420 in Spain. The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 9 miles per day (Germany) and 415 miles per day (New York City). People <65years old and not having any underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.3%, 0.7%, and1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City.

CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon.
Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I wonder if people were screaming for herd immunity for Ebola or Polio, I just don’t think we know enough of this new virus to make that call or maybe we do .

Over 90% of polio cases were asymptomatic, BTW.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Here's one for NYC...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...new-york-city/

Maybe this will help:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...361v1.full.pdf

To keep the old and weak safe you need to keep the young and healthy safe. Grandma isn’t going to be the one spreading it. That how the flu shot helps the vulnerable.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Here's one for NYC...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...new-york-city/

Maybe this will help:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...361v1.full.pdf

You were asked to provide age brackets for influenza deaths, not COVID-19.

So, no, those don't help.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Here's one for NYC...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...new-york-city/

Maybe this will help:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...361v1.full.pdf

What do you think the difference in COVID deaths is for New York between now and 24 days ago?

[Fish]

Half the people at the grocery store:

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

You were asked to provide age brackets for influenza deaths, not COVID-19.

So, no, those don't help.

... obtuse Dong.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

... obtuse Dong.

There's nothing obtuse about it. It seems he was right.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I wonder if people were screaming for herd immunity for Ebola or Polio, I just don’t think we know enough of this new virus to make that call or maybe we do .

Ebola has a CFR of 80% and Polio was around a CFR 8% for those younger than 5 years old...

Not even close to the same.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I wonder if people were screaming for herd immunity for Ebola or Polio, I just don’t think we know enough of this new virus to make that call or maybe we do .

I remember the freak out when we had 1 Ebola case here in the US. Holy crap did they spazz out.

[dirk digler]

Don't know if we are seeing this over here yet but we might if we open up our schools.

A small but rising number of children are becoming ill with a rare syndrome that could be linked to coronavirus, with reported cases showing symptoms of abdominal pain, gastrointestinal symptoms and cardiac inflammation, UK health care bosses and pediatrics specialists have warned.

On Sunday, the Paediatric Intensive Care Society UK (PICS) tweeted an "urgent alert" from the National Health Service England about a small rise in the number of cases of critically ill children presenting "overlapping features of toxic shock syndrome and atypical Kawasaki disease with blood parameters" -- with some of the children testing positive for Covid-19.

The urgent alert, sent to UK general practitioners by National Health Service (NHS) England warned that over the last three weeks, "there has been an apparent rise in the number of children of all ages presenting with a multisystem inflammatory state requiring intensive care across London and also in other regions of the UK," the Health Service Journal first reported Monday.

[banyon]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Here's one for NYC...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...new-york-city/

Maybe this will help:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...361v1.full.pdf

Again: you did not include the flu data by age.

In an effort to shorten this, I did the math and you are wrong:

in 2017-18 (really bad year for flu), the total flu cases for under 65 were estimated to be 38,856,940. The total deaths under 65 were estimated to be 10,197.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

As of April 14 (because the CDC data lags) deaths under 65 were 6,501, the case count for under 65 as of April 14 was 621,953

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

About 29% of COVID cases are over 65, so I adjusted the worldometer number by that. so 621,953x.29= 441,587

That gives us current CFR of .026% for flu under 65 y/o in 17-18' and current CFR of 1.47% for COVID 19 under 65 to date.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Donger

You were asked to provide age brackets for influenza deaths, not COVID-19.

So, no, those don't help.

Again,

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

For the last 10 years, but you have to work Dong, you have to click on the tabs...

Here's H1N1 info again, since 09-10 wasn't included above...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-f...23579720100212

“CDC estimates that between 41 million and 84 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April 2009 and January 16, 2010,” the agency said in a statement. Usually the CDC goes with a middle number, which it puts at about 57 million people infected.

Between 8,330 and 17,160 people died during that time from H1N1, with a middle range of about 12,000, the CDC said. But between 880 and 1,800 children died, up to 13,000 adults under the age of 65 and only 1,000 to 2,000 elderly.

In a normal flu season, the CDC estimates that 36,000 Americans die of flu, but 90 percent are over the age of 65. The CDC estimates that 200,000 go into the hospital, again mostly frail elderly people with other health conditions.

The swine flu pandemic has affected much younger people.

The CDC estimate shows that between 183,000 and 378,000 people were hospitalized with H1N1 swine flu from April to January.

In an average flu season, about 82 children die in the United States, the CDC says. But those are lab-confirmed cases.

ACCURATE ESTIMATES
The CDC and the World Health Organization stopped trying to count all the actual cases months ago, once it became clear that H1N1 was a pandemic that would infect millions.

WHO’s count of lab-confirmed cases showed that at least 15,292 people had died in 212 countries and territories.

But WHO and the CDC note there are nowhere near enough diagnostic tests to give to everyone with flu-like symptoms to see if they really have swine flu.

The CDC therefore does its estimates based on models, calculated by looking intensively at small groups of people, gathering data on overall reports of sickness and death, and reconciling the two.

That is also how the CDC comes up with its annual estimates for seasonal flu, and experts agree these estimates are far more accurate than counting confirmed cases.

The following is from the CDC much later looking back at the true impact using the more accurate reconciliation method mentioned earlier...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

From the CDC...

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

[TLO]

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Ebola has a CFR of 80% and Polio was around a CFR 8% for those younger than 5 years old...

Not even close to the same.

I know that and polio is more that just CFR , CFR is not the only metric used when dealing with disease