***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Don't know if we are seeing this over here yet but we might if we open up our schools.

That could be linked? Right now everything wrong in the world is because of Covid. We are jumping the shark......

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by banyon

Again: you did not include the flu data by age.

In an effort to shorten this, I did the math and you are wrong:

in 2017-18 (really bad year for flu), the total flu cases for under 65 were estimated to be 38,856,940. The total deaths under 65 were estimated to be 10,197.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

As of April 14 (because the CDC data lags) deaths under 65 were 6,501, the case count for under 65 as of April 14 was 621,953

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

About 29% of COVID cases are over 65, so I adjusted the worldometer number by that. so 621,953x.29= 441,587

That gives us current CFR of .026% for flu under 65 y/o in 17-18' and current CFR of 1.47% for COVID 19 under 65 to date.

So you seriously believe that the CFR for those under 65 and healthy is 1.47%...

So I understand you correctly, You are using a denominator of 38,000,000 for the 2017-2018 flu, and are only using a denominator of 621,953 for Covid-19 despite telling me over and over the R0 on Covid-19 is much higher than the flu.

This is logically flawed... you get that, right?

[BigCatDaddy]

Just got word our school will be opening what is essentially a day care program the 18th. Sounds like summer school may be a go then.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Asthma, obesity, copd, renal disease, cancer , hypertension , liver disease, lung disease, diabetes, immunodeficiency. You don’t think that is a large portion of the population?

It does not have to kill you to cause harm.

You claimed 80% of the population is high risk, the data doesn't support that, in fact it supports the opposite.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I know that and polio is more that just CFR , CFR is not the only metric used when dealing with disease

But it is important, for example:

8 out of 10 that get Ebola die.

8 out of 100 kids less than 5 died of polio.

8 of 1500, in all ages will die of Covid-19 based on new estimations of overall IFR(.6%).

8 of 12000 for those under 65 and healthy.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That could be linked? Right now everything wrong in the world is because of Covid. We are jumping the shark......

What else could it be?

The urgent alert, sent to UK general practitioners by National Health Service (NHS) England warned that over the last three weeks, "there has been an apparent rise in the number of children of all ages presenting with a multisystem inflammatory state requiring intensive care across London and also in other regions of the UK," the Health Service Journal first reported Monday.

The alert added: "There is a growing concern that a [covid-19] related inflammatory syndrome is emerging in children in the UK, or that there may be another, as yet unidentified, infectious pathogen associated with these cases," HSJ added.

Dr. Tina Tan, professor of pediatrics and infectious diseases at Northwestern University's Feinberg School of Medicine, said that the NHS England alert was important information to have here in the United States.

"I think it's really important that an alert like that goes out, not to alarm anybody but to have people be aware of the fact that this can happen. There have been an increased number of cases like this reported in Italy as well as Spain. Here in the US, I think we're just starting to see it," Tan told CNN Monday.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

But it is important, for example:

8 out of 10 that get Ebola die.

8 out of 100 kids less than 5 died of polio.

8 of 1500 will die of Covid-19 based on new estimations of overall IFR.

If the CFR was 0 but 100% end up on home oxygen, would CFR matter. As an internet warrior do you think you know enough about the diseases to make a call for herd immunity

[dirk digler]

➡️Hospitalizations in the Kansas City region showed a 41% reduction

➡️Hospitalizations in the Central Region showed a 38% reduction

— Governor Mike Parson (@GovParsonMO) April 28, 2020




➡️Hospitalizations in the Southeast Region showed a 45% reduction

➡️Hospitalizations in the St. Louis region showed a slight increase (8% increase)

— Governor Mike Parson (@GovParsonMO) April 28, 2020

[wazu]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

➡️Hospitalizations in the Kansas City region showed a 41% reduction

➡️Hospitalizations in the Central Region showed a 38% reduction

— Governor Mike Parson (@GovParsonMO) April 28, 2020




➡️Hospitalizations in the Southeast Region showed a 45% reduction

➡️Hospitalizations in the St. Louis region showed a slight increase (8% increase)

— Governor Mike Parson (@GovParsonMO) April 28, 2020

Your move, Lucas.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Monticore

If the CFR was 0 but 100% end up on home oxygen, would CFR matter. As an internet warrior do you think you know enough about the diseases to make a call for herd immunity

You are arguing things we know not to be true to make your case. Not sure how thats not worse than what he is arguing.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

You are arguing things we know not to be true to make your case. Not sure how thats not worse than what he is arguing.

I was making a point that CFR is not the only factor being used to Make these decisions.

People keep pointing out how CFR for a portion of of the population is close to another deadly disease like it is a good thing

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Monticore

We shut down our district before we had 1 cases within 100km from us or any community acquired cases. we have 16 total 14 recovered , no deaths and no new cases in over 5 days, was it luck? having measures in place before infestation? we are awesome and better than everybody else? the disease is not as bad as people expected?

My vote is having measures in place early but some might disagree.

Do you think your district has beat this? Because I don’t at all. Once the shut down is over all indications are you will have lots of cases. And will just be where a lot of places are now with it only it’s months from now.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I was making a point that CFR is not the only factor being her to. And these decisions.

People keep pointing out how CFR for a portion of of the population is close to another deadly disease like it is a good thing

It's not the only factor but the major one. We know that 90% of hospitalizations and deaths are those that are older and/or have an underlying condition. Many estimates say around 80% are asymptomatic, so yes, are future policy should be trying to protect the vulnerable class and letting many of those of the 28,000,000 unemployed start to get their lives back. We are way better now at knowing what we are encountering, how to mitigate it, and we should move forward.

[banyon]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

So you seriously believe that the CFR for those under 65 and healthy is 1.47%...

So I understand you correctly, You are using a denominator of 38,000,000 for the 2017-2018 flu, and are only using a denominator of 621,953 for Covid-19 despite telling me over and over the R0 on Covid-19 is much higher than the flu.

This is logically flawed... you get that, right?

Of course it is not flawed. The Flu data covers 2 years, the COVID19 data a couple of months. The COVID19 data may eventually reach that denominator, but it is not there yet. We have to use the numbers we currently possess.

What CFR do you want to use instead and how did YOU arrive at it?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Do you think your district has beat this? Because I don’t at all. Once the shut down is over all indications are you will have lots of cases. And will just be where a lot of places are now with it only it’s months from now.

No I don’t think we beat it but with 0 community spread if people don’t bring it from elsewhere it won’t magically appear, but once things open up it will be hard to control that.