***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Fish

Those 2 Cali docs in scrubs in the video above are now facing some harsh criticism.

California doctors with dubious COVID conclusions debunked
Health experts were quick to say the doctors’ findings were misguided and riddled with statistical errors.

[...]

In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they “emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”

Is anyone really shocked?

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I bring work clothes in a bag , change into them , then change back before leaving

They don’t want you putting scrubs on at home going to work with them.

It's still not a barrier though. You handled your scrubs at home.

Outside clothes removed... move to shower... move to on site clothes including shoes. Reverse the procedure to leave the campus. Standard protocol for 2 decades just to keep hogs alive, yet we don't come close to that procedure to keep our old people alive. It's just something I've always found interesting and probably a moot point because of visitors.

If you're a health care worker, thanks, and hopefully it's over soon.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Fish

Those 2 Cali docs in scrubs in the video above are now facing some harsh criticism.

California doctors with dubious COVID conclusions debunked
Health experts were quick to say the doctors’ findings were misguided and riddled with statistical errors.

[...]

In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they “emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”

Just like the Santa Clara antibody study that recruited patients through a high school email listserv.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Per Worldometers new cases are fairly flat but back up 1k in deaths today. Hopefully, that goes back down

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by ghak99

It's still not a barrier though. You handled your scrubs at home.

Outside clothes removed... move to shower... move to on site clothes including shoes. Reverse the procedure to leave the campus. Standard protocol for 2 decades just to keep hogs alive, yet we don't come close to that procedure to keep our old people alive. It's just something I've always found interesting and probably a moot point because of visitors.

If you're a health care worker, thanks, and hopefully it's over soon.

I understand , I said the same thing lol, but they are trying to implement something, we are not really set up for it. all ER staff use hospital scrubs so they bring nothing from home, wear hats to protect hair etc. But still not a true decontamination etc

The old age homes are private and less willing to spend extra costs on more staff or other measures.

I do Ultrasound and X-ray rarely but we have had only 1 positive admitted , work has been pretty slow , I feel kind of guilty even getting paid for mostly reviewing policies or screening patients entering hospital. Looks like we will be getting hazard pay for 16 weeks 4$ and hour and e tea 250$ a month , feel even worse knowing big hospitals in Toronto are really busy and under more stress than us.

[jaa1025]

Originally Posted by Fish

Those 2 Cali docs in scrubs in the video above are now facing some harsh criticism.

California doctors with dubious COVID conclusions debunked
Health experts were quick to say the doctors’ findings were misguided and riddled with statistical errors.

[...]

In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they “emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”

Same thing happens to scientists that go against the global warming scam. They are silenced and shunned by their peers and the power brokers with everything to lose $$$.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by jaa1025

Same thing happens to scientists that go against the global warming scam. They are silenced and shunned by their peers and the power brokers with everything to lose $$$.

No, "scientists" are shunned when they try to pass off poorly designed studies as definitive when their methodology is horse shit.

Believe it or not, but some of us are actually trained to spot the flaws in these studies so that we can make recommendations that won't kill or disable you, although in your case, we should probably make an exception.

[O.city]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.20075291v1

So, am I reading this right? This would put IFR, around .1?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.20075291v1

So, am I reading this right? This would put IFR, around .1?

The commercially-available lateral flow tests have specificities so low that it is impossible to determine the infection rate with *any* degree of certainty. A recent study comparing them to a laboratory-designed ELISA with a high degree of certainty showed that all but two had completely unacceptable levels of false positives (most were near 10%, which would mean that if the country had an actual infection rate of 2%, five out of six results would be a false positive).

And if I can't determine the infection rate, how can I determine the IFR?

[O.city]

We're gonna end up getting lucky that this ****er isnt' worse than it is, but it's a ****ing shining light that people need to get healthier. Stop eating shit, exercise regularly etc.

This one isn't a world ender, but the next one could be.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

The commercially-available lateral flow tests have specificities so low that it is impossible to determine the infection rate with *any* degree of certainty. A recent study comparing them to a laboratory-designed ELISA with a high degree of certainty showed that all but two had completely unacceptable levels of false positives (most were near 10%, which would mean that if the country had an actual infection rate of 2%, five out of six results would be a false positive).

And if I can't determine the infection rate, how can I determine the IFR?

That was kind of what I was wondering, they kind of skipped a step. It's a pre print so we can't really see..what they did at all.

I would assume some of these larger profile sero profiles they're doing full ELISA on but I haven't read that anywhere.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by jaa1025

Same thing happens to scientists that go against the global warming scam. They are silenced and shunned by their peers and the power brokers with everything to lose $$$.

No, that's not how it works at all.

[jaa1025]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

No, "scientists" are shunned when they try to pass off poorly designed studies as definitive when their methodology is horse shit.

Believe it or not, but some of us are actually trained to spot the flaws in these studies so that we can make recommendations that won't kill or disable you, although in your case, we should probably make an exception.

Were you spotting flaws in the doomsday models that your experts were pushing that have been completely wrong and responsible for the great overreaction by our governments?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by jaa1025

Were you spotting flaws in the doomsday models that your experts were pushing that have been completely wrong and responsible for the great overreaction by our governments?

It's like you can't tell the difference in a forecasting model and a clinical trial.

What you are saying isn't far off from saying that you're going to go for a walk outside during a softball-sized hailstorm because the weatherman had predicted there was a chance of a tornado that didn't materialize.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by jaa1025

Were you spotting flaws in the doomsday models that your experts were pushing that have been completely wrong and responsible for the great overreaction by our governments?

Take your conspiracy/political BS to DC, please.