***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[RedRaider56]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

That's the thing. All this talk and protest about opening back up, anyone with the slightest bit of common sense is going to wait to see how this plays out.

Anyone thinking that opening things up just magically solves the economy is in for a harsh wake up call.

Governor Ducey can let the order expire on Thursday, but I don't know a single person that is going to rush back to the office, or a bar, movie theater, etc.

In Austin, most of the movie theaters have said they will not reopen for awhile even though they can open starting Friday. They just don't have processes in place to provide safety to the patrons Most restaurants are delaying opening for the same reason

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

To all the gym goers how long are you going to wait before returning to the gym?

First ****ing day.

I go at 5 am. Usually not more than 5 of us there anyway.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

New York is an anomaly and it doesn't make a lot of sense why their death rate is so high. It can only be a few things like putting Covid 19 positive patients back in Nursing homes, categorizing all deaths at home as Covid-19 deaths, 3700 without testing them, or poor treatment and care compared to other states. That being said, their deaths are still largely those with underlying conditions and/or older than 70...

Or it possible the virus is worse than the flu, and they put measures in place after the virus took hold, they could be under counting deaths too, maybe they gotta different strain, population density plus the theory of initial viral loads determining severity of symptoms, subways , mass transit etc ...
there are significantly more deaths in NYC compared to similar timeframe from previous years.
We don’t know why we just know it is.

Deaths of the flu are also normally related to underlying conditions, most deaths in general related to disease/infections are also secondary to underlying conditions

[O.city]

It's just weird that so many other cities were in similar situations as NY early and it just didn't materialize like it did there.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

It's just weird that so many other cities were in similar situations as NY early and it just didn't materialize like it did there.

Yes it is , theory that Europe and NYC got one strain and west coast got a different one . I just know that some healthy young people are dying , ah e not often but seems scary to me.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Yes it is , theory that Europe and NYC got one strain and west coast got a different one . I just know that some healthy young people are dying , ah e not often but seems scary to me.

It's just extremely rare for a young healthy person to die. So many probably have it and don't even know it.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by banyon

Holy shit why are you lecturing me on math?

Is your calculator busted?

6501 divided by 4,410,000 is .147% not .0147% you are off by a factor of another 10. The two bolded numbers I posted are not the same you moved the decimal the wrong number of places. It has to be moved by two places in a percent.

Again .147% >> .026%




On the second point Of course it adds up we’ve had severe lockdown measures to reduce the r0 below its natural infectivity. As I explained the first time (you apparently didn’t read it closely) I used the figure 4.4 million as of April 14. It is two weeks old. It would be higher today. But also as I explained I had to match it with the CDC data that is also 2 weeks old. There is no current cdc table breaking down covid19 deaths by age I could find (and you sure aren’t providing it).

'

Again from the study:

The IFR, including only individuals with no comorbidity, is likely several fold lower than the current estimate.

Those under 70 and no underlying health conditions would be several folds lower... get it.

Serious question, you really think we have only had 4.4 million infected in the US right now?

Death by age for NYC and Italy...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...new-york-city/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...gion-in-italy/

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Come on...

Hamas even said this was a well designed study, and no offense to Hamas, but these people seem pretty well educated and used the variable in their estimates...

The study was well-designed. They smartly took blood donations from a period of time that almost certainly predated the epidemic to test for false positives (as did the other study I linked last night that tested commercially-available kits in the US).

The specificity is estimated by the authors at 99.5%, but that was taken from 654 blood samples, not 10,000, and they do reference the lack of a clinical gold standard to measure this against as a potential issue.

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

"Hope" is not a realistic strategy for large scale events, restaurants, gyms, haircut establishments and other businesses that some want to remain closed or at reduced capacity until there is a vaccine.

There may not be a scalable/effective vaccine for several years or ever.

Herd immunity is a more realistic strategy.

Incredible videos have been posted here to educate anyone who will take the time to watch them. Hearing from the people who do this for a living, there confidence level is way beyond hope for a vaccine, and there are many different approaches underway.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Yes it is , theory that Europe and NYC got one strain and west coast got a different one . I just know that some healthy young people are dying , ah e not often but seems scary to me.

Kind of nitpicky too, but technically, there aren't multiple strains. It's a tree of subtypes, which IIRC, in these things isn't necessarily unexpected.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

'

Again from the study:



Those under 70 and no underlying health conditions would be several folds lower... get it.

Serious question, you think, that we have only had 4.4 million infected in the US right now?

Death by age for NYC and Italy...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...new-york-city/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...gion-in-italy/

Ehh, they need to stratify their data better, to be honest.

The IFR per 100K for flu was the following last year (inclusive of those with comorbidities)

18-49: 20
51-64: 61

Compare that to COVID in patients that don't have comorbidities from this study: 82/100K for 18-69.

You have a healthier population that is dying at a substantially higher rate.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

Kind of nitpicky too, but technically, there aren't multiple strains. It's a tree of subtypes, which IIRC, in these things isn't necessarily unexpected.

Ya sorry , what I am trying to say is we don’t know everything we need to know yet.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Yes it is , theory that Europe and NYC got one strain and west coast got a different one . I just know that some healthy young people are dying , ah e not often but seems scary to me.

I was watching Chris Cuomo tonight and he was talking to Dr Gupta and he didn’t go into detail but he said he got his blood work back and his doctor didn’t know what to make of it. This virus is doing things to the body that we are only scratching the surface on.

A lot of these young people dying are dying from sudden heart attacks and strokes related to covid. We need to figure this shit out quick

[Discuss Thrower]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.20075838v1

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I was watching Chris Cuomo tonight and he was talking to Dr Gupta and he didn’t go into detail but he said he got his blood work back and his doctor didn’t know what to make of it. This virus is doing things to the body that we are only scratching the surface on.

A lot of these young people dying are dying from sudden heart attacks and strokes related to covid. We need to figure this shit out quick

There are a lot of wacky lab values related to COVID.

A lot of patients present with elevated d-dimer and fibrinogen levels in the blood and the more serious cases will also have lymphopenia and leukopenia.

Elevated d-dimer and fibrinogen levels point to coagulopathies (they are byproducts of broken up blood clots), whereas the latter two point to a depleted immune system.

Increased levels of NT-proBNP and BNP are indicative of heart failure and troponin levels indicate recent cardiac damage.